Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election (Jan 13th)
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Author Topic: Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election (Jan 13th)  (Read 8886 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: December 30, 2010, 08:59:04 AM »
The £500 deposit is supposed to deter people like the Monster Raving Loonies...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: December 30, 2010, 09:11:46 AM »
Quote from: London Man on December 30, 2010, 08:59:04 AM
The £500 deposit is supposed to deter people like the Monster Raving Loonies...

Kind of, but £500 is worth less than it used to be.
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Novelty
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« Reply #27 on: January 05, 2011, 07:12:10 PM »
Yay, OMRLP!  Yes, let's abolish gravity!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #28 on: January 06, 2011, 04:21:57 PM »
Apparently, a poll is being conducted.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: January 06, 2011, 05:08:17 PM »

By-election polls are traditionally terrible. In the previous parliament we had polls predicting an easy hold in Glasgow East, a close race in Crewe & Nantwich and a dead heat in Glenrothes.
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doktorb
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« Reply #30 on: January 07, 2011, 12:50:50 AM »
Quote from: London Man on December 30, 2010, 08:59:04 AM
The £500 deposit is supposed to deter people like the Monster Raving Loonies...


No it's not.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #31 on: January 07, 2011, 05:32:20 AM »
It was originally. Now, it's more to penalize and tax such marginally frivolous activity.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: January 08, 2011, 01:11:28 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2011, 01:40:23 PM by Refudiate »
3 polls expected from Oldham East-Saddleworth today. I'm still predicting a Liberal win.

Montgomerie has two, but yet to be released, they're "big" and "fascinating" apparently. I'm thinking either a Liberal lead or they're in third. Smithson says one has the Blues in single digits, so i'm assuming it's showing a Liberal lead.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: January 08, 2011, 01:56:02 PM »
By-election polls tend to be so bad that they could show almost anything.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: January 08, 2011, 03:02:58 PM »
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #35 on: January 08, 2011, 03:14:45 PM »
These are "fascinating" only in their utter lack of shock value.
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Verily
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« Reply #36 on: January 08, 2011, 03:20:47 PM »
Surprised the Conservatives are down so much. Otherwise, no shocks.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #37 on: January 08, 2011, 04:37:58 PM »
Quote from: Verily on January 08, 2011, 03:20:47 PM
Surprised the Conservatives are down so much. Otherwise, no shocks.

I think there's a Conservative-->LibDem Swing compensated by a huge Libdem-->Labour swing.

If this is true, LOL
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #38 on: January 08, 2011, 04:54:47 PM »
O.K then. Of course if the record of by-election opinion polling is anything to go by, expect a Tory gain.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #39 on: January 09, 2011, 07:53:10 AM »
Survation poll:

Lab 31%
LibDem 30%
Con 6%

That's without subtracting 'don't knows'.

According to UK polling report the methodology of the poll is rather suspicious as well, so I don't know whether that means it suddenly gets credible (By-election poll (probably way off) X dodgy methodology (probably way off) = spot on) Smiley
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Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
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« Reply #40 on: January 09, 2011, 03:24:16 PM »
Quote from: Taoisigh on January 09, 2011, 07:53:10 AM
Survation poll:

Lab 31%
LibDem 30%
Con 6%

That's without subtracting 'don't knows'.

According to UK polling report the methodology of the poll is rather suspicious as well, so I don't know whether that means it suddenly gets credible (By-election poll (probably way off) X dodgy methodology (probably way off) = spot on) Smiley

Two wrongs don't make a right Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2011, 11:33:14 PM »
Decent preview article by Lewis Baston
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #42 on: January 13, 2011, 09:13:04 AM »
So will this be declared sometime tonight or will we have to wait until tomorrow before we get the result?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2011, 09:21:13 AM »
Quote from: Swedish Cheese on January 13, 2011, 09:13:04 AM
So will this be declared sometime tonight or will we have to wait until tomorrow before we get the result?

I don't see why they'd delay the count until the morning; it isn't as though they've anything else to count and there's always a pressure to get by-election results as soon as possible.

Basically we should have a rough idea of what's happened within half an hour to an hour of the polls closing, although very early reports are often amusingly inaccurate. We'll have a good idea of the order of candidates and the rough size of the majority (and recounts, if any) a few hours after that, and then, eventually, we'll see a declaration.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #44 on: January 13, 2011, 09:27:25 AM »
People should be more careful with photocopiers when Tom Watson is in the building. That, or this is seriously epic trolling.
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change08
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« Reply #45 on: January 13, 2011, 11:17:00 AM »
« Edited: January 13, 2011, 11:34:24 AM by Refudiate »
I hope tonight's Question Time is live tonight. Kennedy's reaction might be interesting since we'll have a rough idea who's won by then.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #46 on: January 13, 2011, 05:00:05 PM »
Polls are now closed.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #47 on: January 13, 2011, 05:08:53 PM »
Radio stream:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/bbc_radio_lancashire
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #48 on: January 13, 2011, 05:12:31 PM »
From the Saddleworth News's twitter whatever:

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and:

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #49 on: January 13, 2011, 05:22:44 PM »
Yet also rumours hinting the other way. From BBC North West political editor's twitter whatever:

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