PCN analysis: Rendell will cruise into a second-term

[danwxman]

According to basically every journalist roundtable I've seen on PCN recently, everybody seems to agree that the Republicans have no chance in 2006 and will probably put up a sacrificial lamb. They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

[J. J.]

PA has a habit of re-electing governors.  The closest was Thornburgh in 1982.  Casey barely won in 1986 and won 2/1 in 1990.

They might pick a weak default candidate. 

[Ben.]

I don’t think Rendell is a lock, but he should get in again he has a solid if not spectacular record and I like the guy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.

[TeePee4Prez]

Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.

Always knew they were.  Just like "the people of Northeast Philadelphia LOVE Melissa Brown's positions" and if Melissa Hart were to run she'd win.  Hmm, Schwartz won NE Philly by 23 points and I may be the only person within a mile radius who's heard of Melissa hart.   

[Democratic Hawk]

When governor's do a sound job (be they Democrat or Republican), then they deserve re-election

Dave

[danwxman]

Keystone Phil is surprisingly absent from this thread.

[Keystone Phil]

Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.

Always knew they were.  Just like "the people of Northeast Philadelphia LOVE Melissa Brown's positions" and if Melissa Hart were to run she'd win.  Hmm, Schwartz won NE Philly by 23 points and I may be the only person within a mile radius who's heard of Melissa hart.   

Yeah because the political pundits ALWAYS pick the winner, right BRTD?

IrishDem, I explained to you why Schwartz won and by such a large margin especially in NE Philly. I'm not getting into that again. As for people not knowing Melissa Hart, people didn't know Pat Toomey either. And she is well known out where it really counts: Western PA.

As for Dan's comments, I was absent from this thread since I haven't been on in about a day. I don't avoid a debate, my friend.

[Keystone Phil]

They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

If Piccola or Scranton is the nominee, I can say that sounds about right (Not so sure about the exact numbers though). But I don't think either of them will be the Republican candidate in the General election.

[danwxman]

They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

If Piccola or Scranton is the nominee, I can say that sounds about right (Not so sure about the exact numbers though). But I don't think either of them will be the Republican candidate in the General election.

Then you better hope somebody else steps up to the plate, because it's not looking too good right now. You have to consider that the Republicans know they don't have a good chance in '06...so they are just going to run a lightweight against Rendell.

[Keystone Phil]

They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

If Piccola or Scranton is the nominee, I can say that sounds about right (Not so sure about the exact numbers though). But I don't think either of them will be the Republican candidate in the General election.

Then you better hope somebody else steps up to the plate, because it's not looking too good right now. You have to consider that the Republicans know they don't have a good chance in '06...so they are just going to run a lightweight against Rendell.

What are you talking about "they don't have a chance?" Are you kidding? Do you seriously think Rendell is still as popular as he was in October of '02? Now if Piccola or Scranton are the only challengers, I will concede that a Republican win in unlikely. But I really do think that a better candidate will jump in.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like there is a new candidate in the race. Mac McCawley - a retired fighter pilot from Uniondale. Not a serious candidate, of course, but it does raise the total of Republican candidates to three.

http://www.macforpagov.com/

There's also talk about Knoll being dropped from the 2006 Dem ticket and she might actually challenge Rendell for the nomination.

[danwxman]

They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

If Piccola or Scranton is the nominee, I can say that sounds about right (Not so sure about the exact numbers though). But I don't think either of them will be the Republican candidate in the General election.

Then you better hope somebody else steps up to the plate, because it's not looking too good right now. You have to consider that the Republicans know they don't have a good chance in '06...so they are just going to run a lightweight against Rendell.

What are you talking about "they don't have a chance?" Are you kidding? Do you seriously think Rendell is still as popular as he was in October of '02?

Pretty much, yeah. He's still hated in the T (although he has made some inroads), beloved in the Southeast, and in the West it's a mixed bag.

[Keystone Phil]

They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

If Piccola or Scranton is the nominee, I can say that sounds about right (Not so sure about the exact numbers though). But I don't think either of them will be the Republican candidate in the General election.

Then you better hope somebody else steps up to the plate, because it's not looking too good right now. You have to consider that the Republicans know they don't have a good chance in '06...so they are just going to run a lightweight against Rendell.

What are you talking about "they don't have a chance?" Are you kidding? Do you seriously think Rendell is still as popular as he was in October of '02?

Pretty much, yeah. He's still hated in the T (although he has made some inroads), beloved in the Southeast, and in the West it's a mixed bag.

I disagree. He has had the highest disapproval ratings and his approval ratings haven't been that great either. The Southeast is still very friendly to Rendell, of course, the T can't stand him and out west, he's not that popular (certainly not as popular as he was two years ago).

Interesting candidate who could put the Philly suburbs in play for the Republicans: Former Gov. Mark Schweiker. He'd carry Bucks (his home county that went for Rendell in '02) and make Montco and Chester tossup counties. However, I don't think it's likely that he'll run.

[danwxman]

They are comparing it to Tom Ridge's re-election. Sounds about right to me.

If Piccola or Scranton is the nominee, I can say that sounds about right (Not so sure about the exact numbers though). But I don't think either of them will be the Republican candidate in the General election.

Then you better hope somebody else steps up to the plate, because it's not looking too good right now. You have to consider that the Republicans know they don't have a good chance in '06...so they are just going to run a lightweight against Rendell.

What are you talking about "they don't have a chance?" Are you kidding? Do you seriously think Rendell is still as popular as he was in October of '02?

Pretty much, yeah. He's still hated in the T (although he has made some inroads), beloved in the Southeast, and in the West it's a mixed bag.

I disagree. He has had the highest disapproval ratings and his approval ratings haven't been that great either. The Southeast is still very friendly to Rendell, of course, the T can't stand him and out west, he's not that popular (certainly not as popular as he was two years ago).

Interesting candidate who could put the Philly suburbs in play for the Republicans: Former Gov. Mark Schweiker. He'd carry Bucks (his home county that went for Rendell in '02) and make Montco and Chester tossup counties. However, I don't think it's likely that he'll run.

Do you have a source for those approval ratings? The article I posted here right after the election said his approval ratings have remained steady and quite high all through the election cycle.

[Keystone Phil]

The latest one that I could find...


 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

 
                        App     Dis     DK/NA

Aug 18, 2004   50      32      18
Jul 13, 2004     54      30      15
Jun 24, 2004    51      31      18

Notice how his approval ratings peaked during the mid summer months then came back down and his disapproval numbers went up too?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11378.xml

If you can find other sources, please post them. I bet that the next poll by Quinnipiac will show Rendell's disapproval numbers up (due to the absentee ballot controversy)

[danwxman]

The latest one that I could find...


 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

 
                        App     Dis     DK/NA

Aug 18, 2004   50      32      18
Jul 13, 2004     54      30      15
Jun 24, 2004    51      31      18

Notice how his approval ratings peaked during the mid summer months then came back down and his disapproval numbers went up too?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11378.xml

If you can find other sources, please post them. I bet that the next poll by Quinnipiac will show Rendell's disapproval numbers up (due to the absentee ballot controversy)

I hate to break it to you but those approval numbers are pretty good. The challenger will have to take all the dissaproves and all the DK's to win. That's going to be hard. But things could change in the next two years...it's going to be fun to watch..

[Keystone Phil]

The latest one that I could find...


 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

 
                        App     Dis     DK/NA

Aug 18, 2004   50      32      18
Jul 13, 2004     54      30      15
Jun 24, 2004    51      31      18

Notice how his approval ratings peaked during the mid summer months then came back down and his disapproval numbers went up too?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11378.xml

If you can find other sources, please post them. I bet that the next poll by Quinnipiac will show Rendell's disapproval numbers up (due to the absentee ballot controversy)

I hate to break it to you but those approval numbers are pretty good. The challenger will have to take all the dissaproves and all the DK's to win. That's going to be hard. But things could change in the next two years...it's going to be fun to watch..

You mean to tell me that the decline in approval ratings is a good thing for Rendell?

[danwxman]

The latest one that I could find...


 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

 
                        App     Dis     DK/NA

Aug 18, 2004   50      32      18
Jul 13, 2004     54      30      15
Jun 24, 2004    51      31      18

Notice how his approval ratings peaked during the mid summer months then came back down and his disapproval numbers went up too?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11378.xml

If you can find other sources, please post them. I bet that the next poll by Quinnipiac will show Rendell's disapproval numbers up (due to the absentee ballot controversy)

I hate to break it to you but those approval numbers are pretty good. The challenger will have to take all the dissaproves and all the DK's to win. That's going to be hard. But things could change in the next two years...it's going to be fun to watch..

You mean to tell me that the decline in approval ratings is a good thing for Rendell?

It only goes until August. We don't even know what his numbers are right now. Probably right around 50 or slightly above...that's just fine.

[Keystone Phil]

I was reading an article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette about Piccola and Scranton. Piccola has stated that if Scranton wins the GOP state committee's endorsement, he will drop out of the race.

This is the worst case scenario for Republicans especially conservatives across the state. While I dislike both Piccola and Scranton, I would have to go with Piccola if it was just between those two candidates. Melissa Hart or Pat Toomey - Please get into this race!

[12th Doctor]

Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.

Don't think I ever said he wasn't going to win.  Just said that he is dispised by pretty much two-thirds of the state, geographically.

[TeePee4Prez]

Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.

Don't think I ever said he wasn't going to win.  Just said that he is dispised by pretty much two-thirds of the state, geographically.

Geographically yes he is.  It's the one-third of civilization that likes him and rightfully so!

[J. J.]

Rendell has a habit of screwing up and then reversing.  He is very weak but that weakness doesn't cost him votes.

[Keystone Phil]

Guess Phil and soulty are wrong then.

Don't think I ever said he wasn't going to win.  Just said that he is dispised by pretty much two-thirds of the state, geographically.

No one was wrong yet. Last time I checked it wasn't even 2005. Last time I checked the GOP primaries were over a year and a half away. Election Day 2006 is far from here. Rendell could lose, Rendell could win. No one is wrong yet.

[TeePee4Prez]

Rendell has a habit of screwing up and then reversing.  He is very weak but that weakness doesn't cost him votes.

Yo dude.  No talkin sh**t about my Eddie.  He is a good governor and a really nice guy.  I think he's cute too.