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Author Topic: Minnesota in 2004  (Read 36852 times)
TomAtPitt
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« on: December 01, 2003, 06:22:15 pm »
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Hi, I was wondering if any of you had any opinions on who is likely to win Minnesota in 2004? Minnesota has traditionally been very heabily Democratic, but Bush came close to Gore there in 2000, and in 2002 the Republicans won big victories carrying both the Gubernatiorial and Senatorial races. Any thoughts on whether this State might go Republican in 2004? Also, does anyone know if Minnesota is similar to the Great Lakes States economically(rust belt, favorable circumstances to Gephardt)?
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2003, 06:24:15 pm »
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i just have a feeling that minnasota will go (R) in 04
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2003, 06:26:00 pm »
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welcome TomatPitt to the forums
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2003, 06:46:58 pm »
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The way it is now, Bush has a 54% chance of winning Minnesota.
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2003, 07:08:21 pm »
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You're right that Minnesota has been gradually trending to the right.  The trends most noticeable are the  following:  Older voters are the most heavily Democratic (Humphrey and Mondale people) and are reaching the end of their lives; the Iron Range in Northeast MN is heavily Democrat but casts a much smaller percentage of the statewide vote than 20 years ago; the Minneapolis suburbs are spreading out far from the city center and are heavily Republican; and rural areas, once fairly receptive to Democrats, are becoming more conservative.
The other factor is that the state's Democrat party (called Democrat Farmer Labor) is pretty much controlled by urban liberals and are increasingly out of step with the rest of the state.  IMO Bush has a very good chance of carrying the state in 2004.  He needs to blunt the Democrat trend in the older suburbs though. (As a side note, a poll 3 weeks before the 2000 election showed Bush with a 1 pt. lead.  This forced Gore to spend funds here to hold the state, which cost him resources elsewhere)
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TomAtPitt
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2003, 07:12:20 pm »
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You're right that Minnesota has been gradually trending to the right.  The trends most noticeable are the  following:  Older voters are the most heavily Democratic (Humphrey and Mondale people) and are reaching the end of their lives; the Iron Range in Northeast MN is heavily Democrat but casts a much smaller percentage of the statewide vote than 20 years ago; the Minneapolis suburbs are spreading out far from the city center and are heavily Republican; and rural areas, once fairly receptive to Democrats, are becoming more conservative.
The other factor is that the state's Democrat party (called Democrat Farmer Labor) is pretty much controlled by urban liberals and are increasingly out of step with the rest of the state.  IMO Bush has a very good chance of carrying the state in 2004.  He needs to blunt the Democrat trend in the older suburbs though. (As a side note, a poll 3 weeks before the 2000 election showed Bush with a 1 pt. lead.  This forced Gore to spend funds here to hold the state, which cost him resources elsewhere)

So is Minessota not really much of a "rust-belt" Great-Lakes state with a heavy labor presence that Gephardt could take advantage of?
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2003, 07:16:34 pm »
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You're right that Minnesota has been gradually trending to the right.  The trends most noticeable are the  following:  Older voters are the most heavily Democratic (Humphrey and Mondale people) and are reaching the end of their lives; the Iron Range in Northeast MN is heavily Democrat but casts a much smaller percentage of the statewide vote than 20 years ago; the Minneapolis suburbs are spreading out far from the city center and are heavily Republican; and rural areas, once fairly receptive to Democrats, are becoming more conservative.
The other factor is that the state's Democrat party (called Democrat Farmer Labor) is pretty much controlled by urban liberals and are increasingly out of step with the rest of the state.  IMO Bush has a very good chance of carrying the state in 2004.  He needs to blunt the Democrat trend in the older suburbs though. (As a side note, a poll 3 weeks before the 2000 election showed Bush with a 1 pt. lead.  This forced Gore to spend funds here to hold the state, which cost him resources elsewhere)

So is Minessota not really much of a "rust-belt" Great-Lakes state with a heavy labor presence that Gephardt could take advantage of?

no. those states are illinois, ohio, my homestate michigan is heavy labor.  My dad is a long time member of the teamsters.
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« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2003, 07:45:35 pm »
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The GOP ain't gonna win Minnesota. That's pretty much a foregone conclusion.
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« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2003, 07:47:35 pm »
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The GOP ain't gonna win Minnesota. That's pretty much a foregone conclusion.
are you sure
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« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2003, 07:54:54 pm »
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So is Minessota not really much of a "rust-belt" Great-Lakes state with a heavy labor presence that Gephardt could take advantage of?
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Not really.  There's not a lot of heavy industry outside of the Duluth/Iron Range area unless you count Northwest Airlines.  But there are a lot of service-sector unions.  The biggest 3 employers in MN are the State Gov't, the Federal Gov't, and state college and universities system.  Almost all of these voters are very politically active and vote Democrat.
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« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2003, 08:00:30 pm »
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i,d love minnasota to go dem. but i think it will go republican
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2003, 08:03:08 pm »
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are you sure

If we're in this much danger of the GOP winning Minnesota, then America might as well just call it quits.
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« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2003, 08:31:08 pm »
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Minnesota is one of the true battlegrounds in 2004.  I think that the race is 50-50 there now, I not ready to commit to either side.
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2003, 09:05:27 pm »
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Gore won MN in 2000, but Bush spent no time or money there.  And up uintil the last week it was a tossup, and it turned out really close.

The suburban Twin City voters are heavily or the GOP.    These same voters are the ones that started to switch in 1998 in electing Jesse Ventura.  Then in 2002 elected A no tax increases governor in a 3 way race.  So far Gov Pawlenty has been cutting spending and has not raised taxes.  True to his word.

Next also in 2002 the GOP made significant gains in the State senate and are only down a few votes.  Next the GOP strengthened its hold on State House and also won the Senate contest with Norm Coleman.  

A big boost was given to the GOP because of the "Wellstone Rally" that is for sure, but Coleman was running even with Wellstone before the crash.  In years past Wellstone would have been miles ahead ina the more Democrat MN.  The GOP has a huge voter registration drive on in MN and is using a lot of resources locally to strengthen itself and make it competitive.

I would say 2004 would be the best shot the GOP has had in years of winning MN.  The GOP beat Mondale in 2002 and could beata  Mondale like candidate in Dean in 2004.
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2003, 09:19:39 pm »
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I'd also say 50 - 50.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2003, 09:36:29 pm »
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Based on Presidential voting trends over the past 4 elections, MN has been consistently trending more Republican (unlike most states). As the table shows below, the Democratic Presidential vote in MN has been dropping.
Election %above national Average
1988 15%
1992 6%
1996 8%
2000 2%
 
In addition, the analysis by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press of the change in party registration between 1997-2000 to Oct 2003, shows a 8% net gain for Republican registration in MN, 6th largest change in the country.
Together these trends would suggest a modest Bush win of perhaps 1-3%, (assuming a close national election).
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« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2003, 04:06:14 am »
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2003, 04:14:00 am »
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Couple of things your all forgeting:

1. The Independence Party polled 16% in the gubernatorial election. Minnesota is not a two party state at gubernatorial level(This is not new. The Farmer-Labor Party in the 1930's were a very strong 3rd party and Minnesota does have a taste for outsiders)

2. Nader polled 5% in Minnesota in 2000.

3. The DFL still won more votes than the IRP in the 2002 House election(although it was very close and the seats are spilt 4-4 it still has to be mentioned)

4. If the Dems manage to lose Minnesota it'll be as stupid as when they somehow lost Arkansas and WV in 2000

5. The GOP have a much better shot at Wisconsin and/or Iowa.
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2003, 04:41:30 am »
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Nah, the GOP won't win Minnesota, surely not the ONLY state that voted Dem in 1984?! (Even if most of that was Mondale). The Scandanavian/Lutheran population there are heavily Democratic aren't they? I hope Minnesota stays Democratic, if not Bush is in for a landslide and landslides are not good for democracy.
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Ryan
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2003, 05:04:43 am »
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Nah, the GOP won't win Minnesota, surely not the ONLY state that voted Dem in 1984?! (Even if most of that was Mondale). The Scandanavian/Lutheran population there are heavily Democratic aren't they? I hope Minnesota stays Democratic, if not Bush is in for a landslide and landslides are not good for democracy.

I share your distaste for landslides and the extremist candidates who cause them Tongue

I'm not sure that Minnesota is a luxury so to speak for Bush. If (by any chance howsoever small) the democratic nominee looks like picking up the most competitive southern states, Ark, Tenn. Fl. etc Bush has to make up the numbers primarily in the midwest and Minnesota is the first such state he has to win. The proGOP trends have been strongest here.

I agree that will happen and the reasons have already been decently coved by the others here.
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« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2003, 10:55:32 am »
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Nah, the GOP won't win Minnesota, surely not the ONLY state that voted Dem in 1984?! (Even if most of that was Mondale). The Scandanavian/Lutheran population there are heavily Democratic aren't they? I hope Minnesota stays Democratic, if not Bush is in for a landslide and landslides are not good for democracy.

Mondale only won Minn buy four thousand or so votes.
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John
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« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2003, 02:49:37 pm »
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Bush & Dean Campaing There A lot But the Out Come is Bush will win Minnesota 50 to 46
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John
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« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2003, 02:57:52 pm »
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   The 3rd party canidate for Gov last year was former Rep. Tim Penny, a conservative Democrat who was pro gun and pro life and anti tax. The MN state house has now close to a 2-1 GOP majority, and the Democrats have only a narrow edge in the state senate, and on some issues, the conservatives have a working majority there because of rural DFLers.

  As for the overall house vote, one has to keep in mind Rep. Collin Peterson, a Democrat who is also pro gun, pro life and anti tax, a overall record that is quite conservative, won re election by a 3-1 margin because the GOP did not bother to put up a viable canidate, nor do they really have any reason do to so.
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« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2003, 02:59:40 pm »
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minnesota


    R-51% D-49%

those are my predictions
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« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2003, 10:31:23 pm »
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I think the Republicans have a very good chance at winning MN next year.  But I think they have an even better chance at winning Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon.

The GOP has a better chance at picking up states they lost in 2000 than the Democrats have at picking up states they lost.  The booming economy as well as the strong points Republicans receive for national security (the only two issues that will matter next year), things are looking good for Bush's reelection.
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