PPP: Huckabee and Palin leading in Missouri

[Tender Branson]

27% Huckabee
25% Palin
15% Gingrich
14% Romney
  5% Paul
  3% Pawlenty
  2% Thune
  1% Daniels
  9% Others/Undecided

Favorables among GOP voters:

76-13 Huckabee
72-20 Palin
57-25 Gingrich
47-27 Romney

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_1206.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Romney does rather badly in the state compared with his result there in 2008.

Must be some of his 2008 voters crossing over to Gingrich or Palin or else, or just people who didn't vote in 2008.

[Poundingtherock]

This is great news....for Mitt Romney.

10% in North Carolina
12% in Montana
14% in Missouri

Can any Romney hack try to pass these numbers off as good news.  He'd be ok if he was cleaning up in the 2008 Obama states but he's not.  He's only doing so in some, but not all, of the 2008 Obama blue states.

Good showing by Palin in a state that borders the Huckabee strongholds of Iowa and Arkansas.  Iowa probably is not too different from Missouri right now.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

easy pickings for.........MP

[Jayhawker]

This is great news....for Mitt Romney.

10% in North Carolina
12% in Montana
14% in Missouri

Can any Romney hack try to pass these numbers off as good news.  He'd be ok if he was cleaning up in the 2008 Obama states but he's not.  He's only doing so in some, but not all, of the 2008 Obama blue states.

Good showing by Palin in a state that borders the Huckabee strongholds of Iowa and Arkansas.  Iowa probably is not too different from Missouri right now.

None of these states vote especially early, so I'm not too worried. Iowa would be more useful, but Romney has strong leads in Nevada and New Hampshire, two early states. He also is expected to be leading in Michigan, another early state.

[Tender Branson]

This is great news....for Mitt Romney.

10% in North Carolina
12% in Montana
14% in Missouri

Can any Romney hack try to pass these numbers off as good news.  He'd be ok if he was cleaning up in the 2008 Obama states but he's not.  He's only doing so in some, but not all, of the 2008 Obama blue states.

Good showing by Palin in a state that borders the Huckabee strongholds of Iowa and Arkansas.  Iowa probably is not too different from Missouri right now.

I agree with this. Romney seems not to be in good shape in most of the states polled so far.

I guess Romney doesn't really have a chance in Iowa and will focus on NH instead. He won't have a chance in SC either and will focus on Nevada.

Besides, if Huckabee decides not to run, Palin will get a boost from his voters, because in the national PPP poll that was out a couple days ago, Palin was the clear 2nd choice of the Huckabee voters. That should help her immensely in Iowa, where Huckabee was strong in 2008 and expecially in South Carolina where I could see her in a tight battle with Gingrich.

[Mr. Morden]

This is great news....for Mitt Romney.

10% in North Carolina
12% in Montana
14% in Missouri

Can any Romney hack try to pass these numbers off as good news.  He'd be ok if he was cleaning up in the 2008 Obama states but he's not.  He's only doing so in some, but not all, of the 2008 Obama blue states.

Good showing by Palin in a state that borders the Huckabee strongholds of Iowa and Arkansas.  Iowa probably is not too different from Missouri right now.

None of these states vote especially early, so I'm not too worried. Iowa would be more useful, but Romney has strong leads in Nevada and New Hampshire, two early states. He also is expected to be leading in Michigan, another early state.

Michigan's 2008 primary law made it a one-time thing.  In 2012, it reverts back to the last Tuesday of February.  Tentatively, for example, Missouri's primary is set for Feb. 7 (which would currently be Super Tuesday), three weeks before Michigan:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.0

Of course, there'll be a lot of movement of primary dates in the next few months, so we don't really know for sure yet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Romney was also leading in Florida if I remember correctly.

[Mr. Morden]

who leads among:

moderates: Huckabee / Palin tie
conservatives: Huckabee
men: Palin
women: Huckabee
under 30: Huckabee
30-45: Palin
over 45: Huckabee

[RIP Robert H Bork]

men: Palin
women: Huckabee

I know this has been said before but how come this is so? I mean, it's...interesting.

Also it's surprising that Huck and Palin are doing so well among "moderates."

[Jbrase]

Red- Giant Douche; Blue - Huck, Pink - Palin;Light Green - T-Paw; Green - Gingrich

[Poundingtherock]

Moderate Republicans in states such as Missouri and Montana may be different from moderate Republicans elsewhere.

[Mr. Morden]

men: Palin
women: Huckabee

I know this has been said before but how come this is so? I mean, it's...interesting.

Well, three obvious reasons:

- Huckabee appeals to the kind of voters who want to vote for the "Identity politics candidate for Evangelicals", whereas Palin appeals more to "movement conservatives".  Women are more likely to be over represented in the former group and men in the latter group.

- Huckabee is more congenial, and Palin is more combative.

- Men like Palin's body.

Also it's surprising that Huck and Palin are doing so well among "moderates."

There really isn't *that* much difference between "conservatives" and "moderates" in most of these GOP primary polls.  Though that might change once the campaign starts for real, and divisions arise.

[Whacker77]

I guess Romney is still likely to run, but I don't see an easy path for him.  It really depends on what Huckabee does.  If Huck doesn't run, Romney would just be wasting his money in Iowa as the majority of Huck support would go to Palin.  If Huck runs, there's always a chance Palin and Huck split the vote and allow Romney to come from behind.  Doubtful.

Romney's best bet is to cede Iowa to Palin and then aim his sights on South Carolina and hope a likely win in New Hampshire gives him momentum.  Honestly, I don't see it though.  Palin is going to be extremely tough to beat in South Carolina, especially with Haley probably backing her.  If Sarah gets those two states, then how do the others continue.  This is why I say Palin is the prohibitive front runner.

The wildcard in Newt.  Honestly, I can't believe he is a serious candidate, but I haven't quite figured out how he plays into all of this.  My guess is he ends up on the outside looking in.  Palin and Huck go after one group of primary voters, Romney gets the more establishment voters, and Newt is left to pick up the leftovers.  I don't think there's enough room for him, but it will give him the opportunity to hock another book.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Agree Palin's tone is more appealing to limbaugh fans who strike me as more male.  My gut feeling is women as a group aren't as hardline on social conservatism, a la Laura Bush, Meghan McCain, Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  I wonder if more of these women prefer Huckabee's reasonable tone, even if his actual stances on social issues is more severe.

[Mr. Morden]

My gut feeling is women as a group aren't as hardline on social conservatism, a la Laura Bush, Meghan McCain, Kay Bailey Hutchinson.

Republican women who get into politics, like Kay Bailey Hutchison, are very unrepresentative of Republican women voters as a whole.  Most surveys actually show that religiosity is a bit higher among women than men.  My guess is that socially conservative positions of the type favored by an Evangelical identity politics candidate like Huckabee (such as on abortion and gay marriage) are as popular with Republican women as Republican men.  (Though yes, the tone with which you advocate such positions could matter.)

But "movement conservatives" put somewhat more emphasis on economics and foreign policy, and on social issues with less of a religious connotation, like immigration.  Among movement conservatives, I suspect there's a bigger gap between men and women.

[Whacker77]

Agree Palin's tone is more appealing to limbaugh fans who strike me as more male.  My gut feeling is women as a group aren't as hardline on social conservatism, a la Laura Bush, Meghan McCain, Kay Bailey Hutchinson.  I wonder if more of these women prefer Huckabee's reasonable tone, even if his actual stances on social issues is more severe.

I'm not sure I would characterize Laura Bush, KBH, and dopey Meghan McCain as standard Republican women.

[Keystone Phil]

More proof that Palin's power is being overstated.

[Pictor Ignotus]

More proof that Palin's power is being overstated.

Yeah overstated again and again and again and again. Oh and again...

[Keystone Phil]

More proof that Palin's power is being overstated.

Yeah overstated again and again and again and again. Oh and again...

The joke and/or jab is going over my head. Care to explain? 

[Pictor Ignotus]

More proof that Palin's power is being overstated.

Yeah overstated again and again and again and again. Oh and again...

The joke and/or jab is going over my head. Care to explain? 

Sure but put your tongue back in your mouth, please. I agree she's overblown, but the woman dominates political media.

[Keystone Phil]

More proof that Palin's power is being overstated.

Yeah overstated again and again and again and again. Oh and again...

The joke and/or jab is going over my head. Care to explain? 

Sure but put your tongue back in your mouth, please. I agree she's overblown, but the woman dominates political media.

Hold the hostility assuming you're not joking around. Thanks.

She can't be dominating as much as everyone thinks. Her position in the polls has her barely ahead or trailing Huckabee in several contests and the fight hasn't even begun.

[Thomas D]

Nothing new to add. But I agree State polls outside of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada don't matter until we know the calendar.

[Poundingtherock]

Under what logic should Palin be up by 20 or so?

You act as if she's facing a bunch of no-names when in reality, she's facing people with a ton of name recognition in Huckabee, Romney, and Gingrich.

If she were up 2 on Pawelnty nationally, now that would be a problem for her.  But being up 2 on Gingrich isn't that bad especially when clearly someone (Mike Huckabee) is taking away her vote.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Not to mention Palin's big flaws- is she serious, smart enough etc?- are extremely well exposed questions and she withstands them for polling w/in MOE of lead.  Huckabee, Gingrich and Romney: their Achilles Heels (pardons, RomneyCare, messy personal life) are, I'd guess, currently known by less than 10% of voters.