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« Reply #25 on: November 20, 2004, 09:50:17 pm »
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Pennsylvania was close in 88, if Dukakis had done a little bit better he would've taken it.
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« Reply #26 on: November 20, 2004, 09:53:50 pm »
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In additiion to having a bunch of provisional ballots thanks to partisan Republican challengers, Ohio still had people actually voting at 3 AM. Ohio will definitely end up with a closer margin than PA.
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« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2004, 09:59:15 pm »
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What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

Yeah, I think they closed it as soon as polls closed. Funny how the Vorlon is always trying to say that the right-wing media is liberally biased.
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« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2004, 10:02:54 pm »
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Pennsylvania was close in 88, if Dukakis had done a little bit better he would've taken it.

You could basically make this statement about lany losing candidate, possibly excepting Bush in 1992.  PA is, and has been, a swing state.
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« Reply #29 on: November 20, 2004, 10:03:55 pm »
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I don't think that there was in bias here on anyone's part except for Vorlon, who I like a lot, but does occasionally manipulate information to make a point. I think that his chart was a mix of misunderstanding and wanting to prove a point.

That being said, most people do not even know the difference between "too close to call" and "no information," even here.
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« Reply #30 on: November 21, 2004, 03:11:32 am »
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What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

WV was called in 18 minutes which was pretty quick.

Very SLOW for a state won by 12% was my point however.

And it is odd that not a single Kerry state was called slow, for any reason...

Probably just the bad exit polls, but I like to feed my media hatred/paranoia now and then too... Smiley



I remember WV being called as soon as polls closed.
NH was called damn slow.
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« Reply #31 on: November 21, 2004, 03:12:34 am »
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What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

WV was called in 18 minutes which was pretty quick.

Very SLOW for a state won by 12% was my point however.

And it is odd that not a single Kerry state was called slow, for any reason...

Probably just the bad exit polls, but I like to feed my media hatred/paranoia now and then too... Smiley



You are ignoring the main point I am trying to make, which is that West Virginia was called only after they had suffiient data to report. You are NOT taking into the account slow reporting.

And isn't it just odd that CNN didn't call, say, California for a while? I also still remember CNN calling WV immediately. Maybe AP disagreed. Blame AP. Blame the West Virginia elections system. But you're finding media bias where it isn't.

You're usually a lot more intellectually honest than this.
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« Reply #32 on: November 21, 2004, 03:16:26 am »
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What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

WV was called in 18 minutes which was pretty quick.

Very SLOW for a state won by 12% was my point however.

And it is odd that not a single Kerry state was called slow, for any reason...

Probably just the bad exit polls, but I like to feed my media hatred/paranoia now and then too... Smiley



You are ignoring the main point I am trying to make, which is that West Virginia was called only after they had suffiient data to report. You are NOT taking into the account slow reporting.

And isn't it just odd that CNN didn't call, say, California for a while? I also still remember CNN calling WV immediately. Maybe AP disagreed. Blame AP. Blame the West Virginia elections system. But you're finding media bias where it isn't.

You're usually a lot more intellectually honest than this.

His memo saying that it was called 18 minutes later was forged. Yeah. That's the ticket.
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« Reply #33 on: November 21, 2004, 05:33:03 am »
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In the state of Pennsylvania the GOP moved down by 0.8% compare to 2000.
In 2000 Bush was there by 1.54% below his national number.
In 2004 this gap went up to 2.34% which is by 0.8% greater than 1.54%.
Again, the absolute number went up by 1.8%, but each such number should be compared to the 2.6% Bushs national grow.



Shira, none of what you've said here is relevent to the areas of the state where there is overall party strength.

In 1984, Mondale ran about 2.5% better in PA using your standard. That indicated nothing about 1988.

In 1984 Mondale in Pennsylvania was by 5.44% better than his national number.
Dukakis in 1988 was better in Pennsylvania by 2.74% compare to his national number.
In 2004 Kerry in PA was 2.12% above his national number and Bush was 2.34% below his national number.


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« Reply #34 on: November 21, 2004, 02:46:03 pm »
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Call times from CNN, central standard time:

Tuesday
6:00 PM: IN, KY, GA, VT
6:30 PM: WV
7:00 PM: CT, DE, DC, ME (3), MD, MA, NJ, AL, IL, TN, OK
7:30 PM: VA, SC
7:41 PM: NC
8:00 PM: NY, RI, NE(4), SD, TX, WY, KS, ND
8:33 PM: LA
8:34 PM: MS
8:53 PM: NE (5)
9:00 PM: UT
9:13 PM: AR
9:15 PM: MO
9:52 PM: PA
10:00 PM: CA, ID
11:10 PM: AZ
11:11 PM: FL
11:25 PM: MT
11:27 PM: CO
11:41 PM: OR

Wednesday
12:00 AM: AK
12:09 AM: ME (4)
12:19 AM: NH
12:36 AM: WA
1:32 AM: MI
1:33 AM: MN
1:35 AM: HI
2:55 AM: NV
4:05 AM: WI
1:12 PM: OH

Friday
Around 12:00 PM: IA, NM
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« Reply #35 on: November 21, 2004, 02:46:56 pm »
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Like I said though, you're comparing states that were considered swing states at one point at least, to states that never were. Arkansas was considered a swing state back during the summer, California never was. And to keep things interesting the media never updated the list of swing states, even as they were conceded and the candidates pull out.
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« Reply #36 on: November 21, 2004, 03:13:13 pm »
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Like I said though, you're comparing states that were considered swing states at one point at least, to states that never were. Arkansas was considered a swing state back during the summer, California never was. And to keep things interesting the media never updated the list of swing states, even as they were conceded and the candidates pull out.

Again, is there even one Bush state that was called fast compared to states of similar margins?

Again, is there even one Kerry state called slowly versus states of similar margin?

Please present even a single example from either the "slow Kerry" or "fast Bush" category...??
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« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2004, 03:25:20 pm »
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no, but there was no states once considered swing states that was won by Kerry by 10+ points.

Compare two swing states won by Kerry and Bush by similar margins.
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« Reply #38 on: November 21, 2004, 04:08:36 pm »
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It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.

Yes, and I reported that there was a high turnout in African American areas, which was surpassed by a higher Caucasian turnout. The precentage of turnout in Phila, as part of the overall PA turnout was slightly lower (about 0.1%) from 2000 in 2004.

It's funny that while much of the country trended towards Bush, Southeast PA continues to trend Democratic. The next county in Southeast PA to go Dem: Chester. Compared to the national or even state average, they are moving left and quick.

Yep, Chester is next.  I was afraid though of NE Philly going Bush though.  Simply put, Katz/Street backlash.  Amazingly even the heavily GOP 66th Ward in Philly went for Kerry.  Reagan won 13 of 14 Wards in NE Philly in 1980 and 10 of 14 in 1984.  I wonder if this is something I shoudl still be concerned about. 
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« Reply #39 on: November 21, 2004, 04:11:01 pm »
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Didn't NE Philly vote 66% for Gore? For it to vote for Bush then would take a swing that would be greater than Los Angeles county voting for Bush.
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« Reply #40 on: November 21, 2004, 04:23:56 pm »
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Compare two swing states won by Kerry and Bush by similar margins.

Here are 3 swing state examples:

Example # 1

Missouri - Bush + 7.3% - Called in 136 Minutes
Washington - Kerry + 7.14% - Called in ZERO minutes

Example # 2

Florida - Bush +5.02% - Called in 255 Minutes
Oregon - Kerry + 4.10% - Called in 62 Minutes

Example # 3

Colorado - Bush + 6.45% - Called in 204 Minutes
New Jersey - Kerry + 6.17% - Called in ZERO minutes

Again, is there even one Bush state that was called fast compared to states of similar margins?

Again, is there even one Kerry state called slowly versus states of similar margin?
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« Reply #41 on: November 21, 2004, 04:36:24 pm »
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CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.
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« Reply #42 on: November 21, 2004, 04:53:16 pm »
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CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.

There were 8 states that Kerry won by between 5 and 11%

With the sole and exclusive exception of Hawaii (where polls did not close till waaay late) CNN projected every single one for Kerry essentially upon poll closing.

Connecticut : Bush + 10.47%      1
California : Kerry + 10.36%      0
Illinois : Kerry + 10.12%      5
Arkansas : Bush + 9.83%   195   
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74%      96
Virginia : Bush + 8.23%   101   
Maine : Kerry + 8.03%      0
Delaware : Kerry + 7.57%      2
Missouri : Bush + 7.30%   136   
Washington : Kerry + 7.18%      0
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204   
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17%      0
Florida ; Bush + 5.01%   255

There were 5 Bush states between 5% and 11% - The FASTEST Bush state was Virginia at 101 minutes - slower than the SLOWEST Kerry state.   

Average of Bush states between 5 and 11% margin => 179 Minutes
Average of Kerry states between 5 and 11% Margin => 13 minutes (under 2 minutes if we exclude Hawaii)

Again, I am sure just a product of bad exit polls Smiley






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« Reply #43 on: November 21, 2004, 04:58:04 pm »
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CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.

There were 8 states that Kerry won by between 5 and 11%

With the sole and exclusive exception of Hawaii (where polls did not close till waaay late) CNN projected every single one for Kerry essentially upon poll closing.

Connecticut : Bush + 10.47%      1
California : Kerry + 10.36%      0
Illinois : Kerry + 10.12%      5
Arkansas : Bush + 9.83%   195   
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74%      96
Virginia : Bush + 8.23%   101   
Maine : Kerry + 8.03%      0
Delaware : Kerry + 7.57%      2
Missouri : Bush + 7.30%   136   
Washington : Kerry + 7.18%      0
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204   
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17%      0
Florida ; Bush + 5.01%   255

There were 5 Bush states between 5% and 11% - The FASTEST Bush state was Virginia at 101 minutes - slower than the SLOWEST Kerry state.   

Average of Bush states between 5 and 11% margin => 179 Minutes
Average of Kerry states between 5 and 11% Margin => 13 minutes (under 2 minutes if we exclude Hawaii)

Again, I am sure just a product of bad exit polls Smiley








There's no way Bush really won Florida by more than 5%.
And BTW, you're cherry picking. What's so special about 5% and 11%?
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« Reply #44 on: November 21, 2004, 05:00:06 pm »
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Actually, it was more than 5%, but just slightly over. I guess 5.01%.
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« Reply #45 on: November 21, 2004, 05:06:52 pm »
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CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.

There were 8 states that Kerry won by between 5 and 11%

With the sole and exclusive exception of Hawaii (where polls did not close till waaay late) CNN projected every single one for Kerry essentially upon poll closing.

Connecticut : Bush + 10.47%      1
California : Kerry + 10.36%      0
Illinois : Kerry + 10.12%      5
Arkansas : Bush + 9.83%   195   
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74%      96
Virginia : Bush + 8.23%   101   
Maine : Kerry + 8.03%      0
Delaware : Kerry + 7.57%      2
Missouri : Bush + 7.30%   136   
Washington : Kerry + 7.18%      0
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204   
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17%      0
Florida ; Bush + 5.01%   255

There were 5 Bush states between 5% and 11% - The FASTEST Bush state was Virginia at 101 minutes - slower than the SLOWEST Kerry state.   

Average of Bush states between 5 and 11% margin => 179 Minutes
Average of Kerry states between 5 and 11% Margin => 13 minutes (under 2 minutes if we exclude Hawaii)

Again, I am sure just a product of bad exit polls Smiley








I thought the polls in HI closed at 10:00 PM CST. CNN called it at 1:35 AM. That's more than 96 minutes.  Anyways, your challenge was to find ONE state that fit into either fast Bush or slow Kerry. I submit that I have done just that.
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« Reply #46 on: November 21, 2004, 05:16:21 pm »
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In addition to bad exit polling, another cause for delayed Bush calling may have been that it's usually the cities that report first, giving Kerry a huge boost off the start in most of the swing states (OH being the lone exception as far as I know).
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« Reply #47 on: November 22, 2004, 04:16:53 am »
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In the state of Pennsylvania the GOP moved down by 0.8% compare to 2000.
In 2000 Bush was there by 1.54% below his national number.
In 2004 this gap went up to 2.34% which is by 0.8% greater than 1.54%.
Again, the absolute number went up by 1.8%, but each such number should be compared to the 2.6% Bushs national grow.



Shira, none of what you've said here is relevent to the areas of the state where there is overall party strength.

In 1984, Mondale ran about 2.5% better in PA using your standard. That indicated nothing about 1988.

In 1984 Mondale in Pennsylvania was by 5.44% better than his national number.
Dukakis in 1988 was better in Pennsylvania by 2.74% compare to his national number.
In 2004 Kerry in PA was 2.12% above his national number and Bush was 2.34% below his national number.




Shira, what shows, using you theory is that PA is becomming a Republican state.
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« Reply #48 on: November 22, 2004, 07:26:12 pm »
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I respect you Vorlon and don't want to be picky, but I would really like it if you would respond to my comment about the lack of data being reported. I assume you are not ignoring it, but just haven't seen it.
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« Reply #49 on: November 22, 2004, 11:18:49 pm »
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After the exit polls, I think the media was "assuming" Kerry was going to win....which is why they were more cautious and probably surprised about calling Bush states, and more certain in calling Kerry states.
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