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Author Topic: pennsylvania was close!!!  (Read 4875 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: November 18, 2004, 11:58:44 pm »
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yeah, i know im stating the obvious.  but the networks never emphasised that point enough.  i assume it was because the exit poll for pa was just dead wrong.

what went wrong with that particular exit poll?  was it bad just because it over-sampled women?
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2004, 12:00:07 am »
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I think one poll had Kerry +11.

Looking at the polls, I was thinking "Why are they calling it?". I would not have. Looks like I was right not to.
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« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2004, 12:06:52 am »
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I was surprised they called PA so early too.  And FL so late, when FL was 5-10% Bush the whole night.  Wouldn't that be embarassing for the networks if Bush did edge out Kerry in PA??
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« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2004, 02:15:12 am »
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To be fair, you're comparing many states that were expected to be close (but didn't turn out to be) to states that weren't.

For example, there was a poll out close to the election that said Arkansas was tied.  Bush did better than expected in many of these Arkansas-type states, and thus comparing them to California and Illinois and whatnot is silly.

The exception is New Jersey.  Shrug.
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2004, 02:49:30 am »
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Actually, there was a consistent pattern of Kerry states getting called by the Networks much more quickly than Bush states with similar margins of victory.

In many cases the gap was rather dramatic.

Using the CNN call times:

Maryland   - Kerry +12.98% - called in 0 minutes
West Virginia - Bush +12.81%   - called in 18 minutes

North Carolina - Bush + 12.65% - Called in 72 minutes
Arizona - Bush +10.47% called in 208 minutes
Connecticut - Kerry + 10.36% - called in 1 minute
Illinois - Kerry + 10.12%  - called in 1 minute   
California   - Kerry +9.93% - called in 5 minutes
Arkansas   - Bush +9.83% - Called in 195 Minutes

Missouri - Bush +7.30% called in 136 minutes
Washington -Kerry +7.14% called in 0 minutes

Colorado   - Bush +6.45% called in 204 minutes
New Jersey - Kerry +6.17% - Called in 0 minutes

Oregon - Kerry + 4.1% was called in 62 minutes
Florida - Bush +5.02% took over 5 hours...

I am sure CNN was just being extra careful this year. 

As "the most trusted name in news" nobody would ever suggest an structural bias in their coverage of any kind, I am sure...










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Why did NH take so long?
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« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2004, 07:52:07 am »
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Vorlon, I think the problem is the exit polling, which was skewed kerry in the raw sample, lead them to believe that the close Kerry states were not close and the close easy win Bush states were close Kerry.

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Sibboleth
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2004, 10:09:02 am »
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1% is much?
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2004, 11:22:08 am »
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I do think the answer lies in the exit polls, rather than structural bias by the network itself.  I can't figure out why, but it is clear that the exit poll results leaned way more to Kerry than the actual results did.  Hence states that looked like easy Kerry victories were closer than expected and states that looked close turned out to be fairly easy Bush victories.

2000 was a bit similar, but not nearly as dramatic in the gap between the exit polls and the actual returns.
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2004, 11:44:14 am »
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Selective.
Why did NH take so long?


Here is full list.



NH took the same time +/- as Ohio and Nevada BTW, despite being much closer than these two Bush States.

An interesting table.  Would it be possible to include number (or preferably %) of precincts reporting at the time of the call?   
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2004, 11:48:06 am »
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yeah, i know im stating the obvious. but the networks never emphasised that point enough. i assume it was because the exit poll for pa was just dead wrong.

what went wrong with that particular exit poll? was it bad just because it over-sampled women?

It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2004, 12:14:27 pm »
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Actually, there was a consistent pattern of Kerry states getting called by the Networks much more quickly than Bush states with similar margins of victory.

In many cases the gap was rather dramatic.

Using the CNN call times:

Maryland   - Kerry +12.98% - called in 0 minutes
West Virginia - Bush +12.81%   - called in 18 minutes

North Carolina - Bush + 12.65% - Called in 72 minutes
Arizona - Bush +10.47% called in 208 minutes
Connecticut - Kerry + 10.36% - called in 1 minute
Illinois - Kerry + 10.12% - called in 1 minute   
California   - Kerry +9.93% - called in 5 minutes
Arkansas   - Bush +9.83% - Called in 195 Minutes

Missouri - Bush +7.30% called in 136 minutes
Washington -Kerry +7.14% called in 0 minutes

Colorado   - Bush +6.45% called in 204 minutes
New Jersey - Kerry +6.17% - Called in 0 minutes

Oregon - Kerry + 4.1% was called in 62 minutes
Florida - Bush +5.02% took over 5 hours...

I am sure CNN was just being extra careful this year.

As "the most trusted name in news" nobody would ever suggest an structural bias in their coverage of any kind, I am sure...

big difference, most of those Bush states were considered to be swing states at one point, all those Kerry states were thought to be rather safe from the start. Was there any point when it was in doubt Kerry would win Maryland or Connecticut?
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2004, 12:15:01 pm »
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It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2004, 12:53:17 pm »
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There are a few states actually where the change in turnout versus 2000 was really amazing.

Some of the increase patterns are interesting, the Dems for example made up a lot of ground in places like New Hampshire and Minnesota

The folks running GOTV in Florida get the MVP award on this one however.

Kerry for example got 23% more votes in Florida than Gore did - pretty amazing, except Bush boosted GOP turnout in Florida by 36%. - Bush got more than a million more Florida votes in 2004 than 2000 (!)

The Dems modestly won GOTV in Ohio, the GOP had a bit of an edge in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Virginia, North Carolina and Wisconsin were basically a draw at the turnout game.

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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2004, 03:05:46 pm »
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That's a very interesting table there.

Do you have the numbers for every state handy?  I think would provide an interesting example.
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2004, 11:01:39 pm »
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It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.

Yes, and I reported that there was a high turnout in African American areas, which was surpassed by a higher Caucasian turnout.  The precentage of turnout in Phila, as part of the overall PA turnout was slightly lower (about 0.1%) from 2000 in 2004.
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2004, 11:36:32 pm »
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It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.

Yes, and I reported that there was a high turnout in African American areas, which was surpassed by a higher Caucasian turnout. The precentage of turnout in Phila, as part of the overall PA turnout was slightly lower (about 0.1%) from 2000 in 2004.

It's funny that while much of the country trended towards Bush, Southeast PA continues to trend Democratic. The next county in Southeast PA to go Dem: Chester. Compared to the national or even state average, they are moving left and quick.
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2004, 11:39:33 pm »
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Call me crazy, but I could have sworn that West Virginia was called immediately?

In any case, all statistics cited miss one vital point: TOO CLOSE TO CALL IS DIFFERENT THAN NOT REPORTING. States like Montana showed Kerry - only a few counties were reporting. They weren't too close to call. They just didn't have enough data to report. Other states got this data immediately, or were virtually guaranteed.
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« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2004, 12:23:34 am »
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Yeah, and I don't remember New Jersey being called right away... I was watching the whole time.
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2004, 07:39:11 am »
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yeah, i know im stating the obvious. but the networks never emphasised that point enough. i assume it was because the exit poll for pa was just dead wrong.
The early vote count was really skewed towards Philadelphia.  Kerry had like a 20% lead with 1/2 the precinct counted, which must mean that Bush carried the other 1/2 by around 16%.  So you had two halfs with about a 36% difference (or about the difference between Rhode Island and South Carolina).

By contrast, the margin in Texas was pegged with about 20% of the vote in, and did not move by even 1% as the rest of the votes came in.

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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2004, 06:26:06 pm »
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It's funny that while much of the country trended towards Bush, Southeast PA continues to trend Democratic. The next county in Southeast PA to go Dem: Chester. Compared to the national or even state average, they are moving left and quick.

Well, it's not a new trend.  In 1986, Bill Scranton carried SE PA against Bob Casey; I'd have to check on Bush in 1988, but in general the large Dem turnout in Phila was neutralize in most election from about 1960 until 1992.

In 1992, Clinton won the region.  In 1994, Ridge, while winning statewide, lost the region to Singel, even though both candidates were from the western part of the state.  Excepting Ridge's fairly big win in 1998, this has been the pattern in all Presidential and gubernatorial elections.

During this time, the percentage of the PA vote from Phila has dropped, including this election.
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« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2004, 06:53:37 pm »
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It's funny that while much of the country trended towards Bush, Southeast PA continues to trend Democratic. The next county in Southeast PA to go Dem: Chester. Compared to the national or even state average, they are moving left and quick.

Well, it's not a new trend. In 1986, Bill Scranton carried SE PA against Bob Casey; I'd have to check on Bush in 1988, but in general the large Dem turnout in Phila was neutralize in most election from about 1960 until 1992.

In 1992, Clinton won the region. In 1994, Ridge, while winning statewide, lost the region to Singel, even though both candidates were from the western part of the state. Excepting Ridge's fairly big win in 1998, this has been the pattern in all Presidential and gubernatorial elections.

During this time, the percentage of the PA vote from Phila has dropped, including this election.

In the state of Pennsylvania the GOP moved down by 0.8% compare to 2000.
In 2000 Bush was there by 1.54% below his national number.
In 2004 this gap went up to 2.34% which is by 0.8% greater than 1.54%.
Again, the absolute number went up by 1.8%, but each such number should be compared to the 2.6% Bushs national grow.

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« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2004, 08:43:46 pm »
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Selective.
Why did NH take so long?


Here is full list.



NH took the same time +/- as Ohio and Nevada BTW, despite being much closer than these two Bush States.

They're still counting votes in Ohio. Those votes are overwhelming Democrat thanks to all of the partisan Republican challengers.
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« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2004, 08:46:29 pm »
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Call me crazy, but I could have sworn that West Virginia was called immediately?

In any case, all statistics cited miss one vital point: TOO CLOSE TO CALL IS DIFFERENT THAN NOT REPORTING. States like Montana showed Kerry - only a few counties were reporting. They weren't too close to call. They just didn't have enough data to report. Other states got this data immediately, or were virtually guaranteed.

Yeah, I seem to remember West Virginia being called pretty fast.
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« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2004, 08:48:02 pm »
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What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.
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« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2004, 09:24:08 pm »
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In the state of Pennsylvania the GOP moved down by 0.8% compare to 2000.
In 2000 Bush was there by 1.54% below his national number.
In 2004 this gap went up to 2.34% which is by 0.8% greater than 1.54%.
Again, the absolute number went up by 1.8%, but each such number should be compared to the 2.6% Bushs national grow.



Shira, none of what you've said here is relevent to the areas of the state where there is overall party strength. 

In 1984, Mondale ran about 2.5% better in PA using your standard.  That indicated nothing about 1988. 
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