pennsylvania was close!!! (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  pennsylvania was close!!! (search mode)
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Author Topic: pennsylvania was close!!!  (Read 8523 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,059
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: November 19, 2004, 12:14:27 PM »

Actually, there was a consistent pattern of Kerry states getting called by the Networks much more quickly than Bush states with similar margins of victory.

In many cases the gap was rather dramatic.

Using the CNN call times:

Maryland   - Kerry +12.98% - called in 0 minutes
West Virginia - Bush +12.81%   - called in 18 minutes

North Carolina - Bush + 12.65% - Called in 72 minutes
Arizona - Bush +10.47% called in 208 minutes
Connecticut - Kerry + 10.36% - called in 1 minute
Illinois - Kerry + 10.12%  - called in 1 minute   
California   - Kerry +9.93% - called in 5 minutes
Arkansas   - Bush +9.83% - Called in 195 Minutes

Missouri - Bush +7.30% called in 136 minutes
Washington -Kerry +7.14% called in 0 minutes

Colorado   - Bush +6.45% called in 204 minutes
New Jersey - Kerry +6.17% - Called in 0 minutes

Oregon - Kerry + 4.1% was called in 62 minutes
Florida - Bush +5.02% took over 5 hours...

I am sure CNN was just being extra careful this year. 

As "the most trusted name in news" nobody would ever suggest an structural bias in their coverage of any kind, I am sure...

big difference, most of those Bush states were considered to be swing states at one point, all those Kerry states were thought to be rather safe from the start. Was there any point when it was in doubt Kerry would win Maryland or Connecticut?
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,059
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2004, 12:15:01 PM »


It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,059
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2004, 09:50:17 PM »

Pennsylvania was close in 88, if Dukakis had done a little bit better he would've taken it.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,059
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2004, 02:46:56 PM »

Like I said though, you're comparing states that were considered swing states at one point at least, to states that never were. Arkansas was considered a swing state back during the summer, California never was. And to keep things interesting the media never updated the list of swing states, even as they were conceded and the candidates pull out.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,059
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2004, 03:25:20 PM »

no, but there was no states once considered swing states that was won by Kerry by 10+ points.

Compare two swing states won by Kerry and Bush by similar margins.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,059
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2004, 04:11:01 PM »

Didn't NE Philly vote 66% for Gore? For it to vote for Bush then would take a swing that would be greater than Los Angeles county voting for Bush.
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