pennsylvania was close!!! (user search)
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  pennsylvania was close!!! (search mode)
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Author Topic: pennsylvania was close!!!  (Read 8518 times)
Alcon
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« on: November 19, 2004, 12:00:07 AM »

I think one poll had Kerry +11.

Looking at the polls, I was thinking "Why are they calling it?". I would not have. Looks like I was right not to.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2004, 11:39:33 PM »

Call me crazy, but I could have sworn that West Virginia was called immediately?

In any case, all statistics cited miss one vital point: TOO CLOSE TO CALL IS DIFFERENT THAN NOT REPORTING. States like Montana showed Kerry - only a few counties were reporting. They weren't too close to call. They just didn't have enough data to report. Other states got this data immediately, or were virtually guaranteed.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2004, 08:48:02 PM »

What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2004, 10:03:55 PM »

I don't think that there was in bias here on anyone's part except for Vorlon, who I like a lot, but does occasionally manipulate information to make a point. I think that his chart was a mix of misunderstanding and wanting to prove a point.

That being said, most people do not even know the difference between "too close to call" and "no information," even here.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2004, 03:12:34 AM »

What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

WV was called in 18 minutes which was pretty quick.

Very SLOW for a state won by 12% was my point however.

And it is odd that not a single Kerry state was called slow, for any reason...

Probably just the bad exit polls, but I like to feed my media hatred/paranoia now and then too... Smiley



You are ignoring the main point I am trying to make, which is that West Virginia was called only after they had suffiient data to report. You are NOT taking into the account slow reporting.

And isn't it just odd that CNN didn't call, say, California for a while? I also still remember CNN calling WV immediately. Maybe AP disagreed. Blame AP. Blame the West Virginia elections system. But you're finding media bias where it isn't.

You're usually a lot more intellectually honest than this.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2004, 07:26:12 PM »

I respect you Vorlon and don't want to be picky, but I would really like it if you would respond to my comment about the lack of data being reported. I assume you are not ignoring it, but just haven't seen it.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2004, 01:09:53 AM »

Well, Vorlon, I think you are finding bias where there is none (I'm not sure why you're not going to post anymore here, but that's fine.) I think they were basing it on exit polling.
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