pennsylvania was close!!!

[The Vorlon]

There are a few states actually where the change in turnout versus 2000 was really amazing.

Some of the increase patterns are interesting, the Dems for example made up a lot of ground in places like New Hampshire and Minnesota

The folks running GOTV in Florida get the MVP award on this one however.

Kerry for example got 23% more votes in Florida than Gore did - pretty amazing, except Bush boosted GOP turnout in Florida by 36%. - Bush got more than a million more Florida votes in 2004 than 2000 (!)

The Dems modestly won GOTV in Ohio, the GOP had a bit of an edge in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Virginia, North Carolina and Wisconsin were basically a draw at the turnout game.

[The Vorlon]

Like I said though, you're comparing states that were considered swing states at one point at least, to states that never were. Arkansas was considered a swing state back during the summer, California never was. And to keep things interesting the media never updated the list of swing states, even as they were conceded and the candidates pull out.

Again, is there even one Bush state that was called fast compared to states of similar margins?

Again, is there even one Kerry state called slowly versus states of similar margin?

Please present even a single example from either the "slow Kerry" or "fast Bush" category...??

[The Vorlon]

Compare two swing states won by Kerry and Bush by similar margins.

Here are 3 swing state examples:

Example # 1

Missouri - Bush + 7.3% - Called in 136 Minutes
Washington - Kerry + 7.14% - Called in ZERO minutes

Example # 2

Florida - Bush +5.02% - Called in 255 Minutes
Oregon - Kerry + 4.10% - Called in 62 Minutes

Example # 3

Colorado - Bush + 6.45% - Called in 204 Minutes
New Jersey - Kerry + 6.17% - Called in ZERO minutes

Again, is there even one Bush state that was called fast compared to states of similar margins?

Again, is there even one Kerry state called slowly versus states of similar margin?

[The Vorlon]

CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.

There were 8 states that Kerry won by between 5 and 11%

With the sole and exclusive exception of Hawaii (where polls did not close till waaay late) CNN projected every single one for Kerry essentially upon poll closing. 

Connecticut : Bush + 10.47%      1
California : Kerry + 10.36%      0
Illinois : Kerry + 10.12%      5
Arkansas : Bush + 9.83%   195   
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74%      96
Virginia : Bush + 8.23%   101   
Maine : Kerry + 8.03%      0
Delaware : Kerry + 7.57%      2
Missouri : Bush + 7.30%   136   
Washington : Kerry + 7.18%      0
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204   
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17%      0
Florida ; Bush + 5.01%   255

There were 5 Bush states between 5% and 11% - The FASTEST Bush state was Virginia at 101 minutes - slower than the SLOWEST Kerry state.   

Average of Bush states between 5 and 11% margin => 179 Minutes
Average of Kerry states between 5 and 11% Margin => 13 minutes (under 2 minutes if we exclude Hawaii)

Again, I am sure just a product of bad exit polls

[The Vorlon]

Well, Vorlon, I think you are finding bias where there is none (I'm not sure why you're not going to post anymore here, but that's fine.) I think they were basing it on exit polling.

I guess I just think there are too many examples of HUGE differences in the time it took to call states with very similar margins for it to be a co-incidence...

Here are 18 states to look at....

These are states where the Bush and Kerry margins of victory were very very similar, and we are NOT talking a few minutes difference in call time, we are talk literally HOURS of difference...

If it was one or two states I'd say it was a fluke.... but 18 states where there was a dramatic difference in the call times and ALWAYS faster for Kerry than Bush...?

You don't think this is a tad strange..?

Seriously... do you HONESTLY contend that Bush and Kerry states were called at a similar pace...?

Look at the data....

BTW this is no cherry picking.. I simply take every state that was even remotely close and compared it to the closest state from the other guy (in terms of % margin) above and below...

The Kerry States

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...?

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
California: Kerry +10.22% - 0 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...?

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Illinois :Kerry +10.12% - 5 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...?

Virginia : Bush +8.20% - 101 minutes to call
Maine : Kerry + 8.03% - 0 minutes to call (3 of 4 EVs)
Missouri : Bush +7.20% - 136 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...?

Virginia : Bush +8.20%   101 minutes to call
Delaware : Kerry +7.59% - 2 minutes to call
Missouri : Bush +7.20% - 136 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...?

Missouri : Bush +   7.20% - 136 minutes to call
Washington : Kerry + 7.18% - 0 minutes to call
Colorado   : Bush +   6.45% - 204 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...?

Colorado   : Bush +   6.45% - 204 minutes to call
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17% - 0 minutes to call
Florida : Bush +   5.01% - 255 minutes to call

Three HOURS difference...?

Florida : Bush +   5.01% - 255 minutes to call
Oregon : Kerry + 4.00% - 62 minutes to call
Nevada : Bush +2.59% - 354 minutes to call

Three HOURS difference...?

The Bush States

Rhode Island - Kerry + 20.74% - 0 minutes to call
Mississippi : Bush +20.30% - 90 minutes to call
Vermont : Kerry + 20.14% - 0 minutes to call

1 and a half HOURS difference...?

New York   : Kerry + 17.27%- 0 minutes to call
South Carolina : Bush +17.08% - 102 minutes to call
Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call

1 and a half HOURS difference...?

New York   : Kerry + 17.27%- 0 minutes to call
Louisiana  : Bush +14.51% - 29 minutes to call
Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call

half HOUR difference...?

Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call
North Carolina : Bush +12.65% - 72 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call

1 + HOURS difference...?

Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call
Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...?

Illinois : Kerry + 10.12% - 5 minutes to call
Arkansas : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74% - 96 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...?

Delaware   Kerry + 7.59% - 2 minutes to call
Missouri   Bush +   7.20% - 136 minutes to call
Washington   Kerry + 7.18%   0 minutes to call

2+ HOURS difference...?

Washington : Kerry +7.18% - 0 minutes to call
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204 minutes to call
New Jersey : Kerry +6.17% - 0 minutes to call

3 and a half HOURS difference...?

New Jersey : Kerry +6.17% - 0 minutes to call
Florida : Bush +5.01% - 255 minutes to call
Oregon : Kerry + 4.00% - 62 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...?