pennsylvania was close!!! (user search)
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  pennsylvania was close!!! (search mode)
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Author Topic: pennsylvania was close!!!  (Read 8522 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: November 19, 2004, 02:49:30 AM »

Actually, there was a consistent pattern of Kerry states getting called by the Networks much more quickly than Bush states with similar margins of victory.

In many cases the gap was rather dramatic.

Using the CNN call times:

Maryland   - Kerry +12.98% - called in 0 minutes
West Virginia - Bush +12.81%   - called in 18 minutes

North Carolina - Bush + 12.65% - Called in 72 minutes
Arizona - Bush +10.47% called in 208 minutes
Connecticut - Kerry + 10.36% - called in 1 minute
Illinois - Kerry + 10.12%  - called in 1 minute   
California   - Kerry +9.93% - called in 5 minutes
Arkansas   - Bush +9.83% - Called in 195 Minutes

Missouri - Bush +7.30% called in 136 minutes
Washington -Kerry +7.14% called in 0 minutes

Colorado   - Bush +6.45% called in 204 minutes
New Jersey - Kerry +6.17% - Called in 0 minutes

Oregon - Kerry + 4.1% was called in 62 minutes
Florida - Bush +5.02% took over 5 hours...

I am sure CNN was just being extra careful this year. 

As "the most trusted name in news" nobody would ever suggest an structural bias in their coverage of any kind, I am sure...










Selective.
Why did NH take so long?
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2004, 08:43:46 PM »


Selective.
Why did NH take so long?


Here is full list.



NH took the same time +/- as Ohio and Nevada BTW, despite being much closer than these two Bush States.

They're still counting votes in Ohio. Those votes are overwhelming Democrat thanks to all of the partisan Republican challengers.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2004, 08:46:29 PM »

Call me crazy, but I could have sworn that West Virginia was called immediately?

In any case, all statistics cited miss one vital point: TOO CLOSE TO CALL IS DIFFERENT THAN NOT REPORTING. States like Montana showed Kerry - only a few counties were reporting. They weren't too close to call. They just didn't have enough data to report. Other states got this data immediately, or were virtually guaranteed.

Yeah, I seem to remember West Virginia being called pretty fast.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2004, 09:53:50 PM »

In additiion to having a bunch of provisional ballots thanks to partisan Republican challengers, Ohio still had people actually voting at 3 AM. Ohio will definitely end up with a closer margin than PA.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2004, 09:59:15 PM »

What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

Yeah, I think they closed it as soon as polls closed. Funny how the Vorlon is always trying to say that the right-wing media is liberally biased.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2004, 03:11:32 AM »

What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

WV was called in 18 minutes which was pretty quick.

Very SLOW for a state won by 12% was my point however.

And it is odd that not a single Kerry state was called slow, for any reason...

Probably just the bad exit polls, but I like to feed my media hatred/paranoia now and then too... Smiley



I remember WV being called as soon as polls closed.
NH was called damn slow.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2004, 03:16:26 AM »

What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

WV was called in 18 minutes which was pretty quick.

Very SLOW for a state won by 12% was my point however.

And it is odd that not a single Kerry state was called slow, for any reason...

Probably just the bad exit polls, but I like to feed my media hatred/paranoia now and then too... Smiley



You are ignoring the main point I am trying to make, which is that West Virginia was called only after they had suffiient data to report. You are NOT taking into the account slow reporting.

And isn't it just odd that CNN didn't call, say, California for a while? I also still remember CNN calling WV immediately. Maybe AP disagreed. Blame AP. Blame the West Virginia elections system. But you're finding media bias where it isn't.

You're usually a lot more intellectually honest than this.

His memo saying that it was called 18 minutes later was forged. Yeah. That's the ticket.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,751


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2004, 04:58:04 PM »

CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.

There were 8 states that Kerry won by between 5 and 11%

With the sole and exclusive exception of Hawaii (where polls did not close till waaay late) CNN projected every single one for Kerry essentially upon poll closing.

Connecticut : Bush + 10.47%      1
California : Kerry + 10.36%      0
Illinois : Kerry + 10.12%      5
Arkansas : Bush + 9.83%   195   
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74%      96
Virginia : Bush + 8.23%   101   
Maine : Kerry + 8.03%      0
Delaware : Kerry + 7.57%      2
Missouri : Bush + 7.30%   136   
Washington : Kerry + 7.18%      0
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204   
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17%      0
Florida ; Bush + 5.01%   255

There were 5 Bush states between 5% and 11% - The FASTEST Bush state was Virginia at 101 minutes - slower than the SLOWEST Kerry state.   

Average of Bush states between 5 and 11% margin => 179 Minutes
Average of Kerry states between 5 and 11% Margin => 13 minutes (under 2 minutes if we exclude Hawaii)

Again, I am sure just a product of bad exit polls Smiley








There's no way Bush really won Florida by more than 5%.
And BTW, you're cherry picking. What's so special about 5% and 11%?
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