pennsylvania was close!!! (user search)
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  pennsylvania was close!!! (search mode)
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Author Topic: pennsylvania was close!!!  (Read 8513 times)
danwxman
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Posts: 1,532


« on: November 19, 2004, 11:36:32 PM »


It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

No so much an "oversampling" per se, but there was massive turnout in Phily, almost counteracted by massive turnout elsewhere on the GOP side.

Kerry won Phily HUGE in 2004, he had a margin of about 400,000 votes versus about 348,000 in 2000 for Gore.

When turnout in Phily became clear, there was a natural assumption to call the state.

Kerry won Allegheny by about 95,000 (94,000 in 2000 for Gore), Montgomerty by about 45,000 (33,000 in 2000), and Deleware by about 41,000 (28,000 in 2000)

The Bush folks actually did a pretty good job GOTV too, but he was down 600K just in the 4 counties.

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.

Yes, and I reported that there was a high turnout in African American areas, which was surpassed by a higher Caucasian turnout.  The precentage of turnout in Phila, as part of the overall PA turnout was slightly lower (about 0.1%) from 2000 in 2004.

It's funny that while much of the country trended towards Bush, Southeast PA continues to trend Democratic. The next county in Southeast PA to go Dem: Chester. Compared to the national or even state average, they are moving left and quick.
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danwxman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,532


« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2004, 11:18:49 PM »

After the exit polls, I think the media was "assuming" Kerry was going to win....which is why they were more cautious and probably surprised about calling Bush states, and more certain in calling Kerry states.
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