What are the odds Obama gets primaried?
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  What are the odds Obama gets primaried?
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Poll
Question: After his news conference today
#1
0-24%
 
#2
25-49%
 
#3
50-74%
 
#4
75-100%
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: What are the odds Obama gets primaried?  (Read 1669 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« on: December 07, 2010, 04:12:59 PM »

And, who do you think will primary him?
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2010, 04:14:46 PM »

I put 25-49%, but it's probably closer to 40-45%.  Based on the way things are going, he may not even be a lock for the nomination.

I don't know who would, but I have a feeling he's going to have to spend money in the primary.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2010, 04:31:00 PM »

<1%. There's no path to a successful primary challenge and no figure who would and could do it.

There certainly will be primary challenges of no consequence from gadflies and no-hopers but I won't count that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2010, 04:32:38 PM »

Barack Obama will get a primary challenge. The question at this point is, how serious of one will it be?
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2010, 04:39:28 PM »

I'd say there's a 50-50 chance of a very minor challenge.

A serious challenge? Chances are slim to none. If it becomes painfully obvious that Obama is in serious electoral trouble (a scenario where he can't win), I'm sure that the party will ensure that he steps aside and lets someone else run in 2012.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2010, 04:48:02 PM »

Virtually zero.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2010, 05:08:15 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2010, 05:34:12 PM by Joementum »

A non-competitive ignorable one like Mike Gravel is high, over 50%.

One like Feingold that would be a bit of a headache and he could beat but would require him to campaign... about 1 in 3?  Maybe 50-50.

A serious challenge that he could actually lose, only Hillary pretty much, zilch.
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albaleman
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« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2010, 05:56:15 PM »

A serious primary challenge is very, very unlikely.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2010, 05:58:36 PM »

I never have seen the media so harsh on him as they were today.
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2010, 06:33:12 PM »

Less than 1%.
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Speaker Perez
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2010, 09:53:01 PM »

It all depends on the economic situation at the end of next year. But if things continue the way they are, you can definitely expect a primary challenge. It doesn't have to be a popular extremely known candidate, even an unknown can run and do well. Remember it all depends on Iowa & New Hampshire if Obama's challenger wins at least 20-40 of the vote he/she will receive a huge momentum boost. 
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2010, 10:11:31 PM »

With his tax compromise, the odds are increasing of a challenge, but still not a successful one.
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Speaker Perez
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« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2010, 10:19:16 PM »

Obama's problem is he went either too left or was too moderate, and depending on the crowd he can face serious opposition. Let's not forget tho everytime an incumbent President has been challenged not only has the challenger lost but the incumbent has also gone on to lose the general election. So whoever opposes Obama must poor their heart and soul into Iowa & New Hampshire.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2010, 10:39:56 PM »

All thoughtful Republicans here (which is not many) should not be cheering for a challenge to Obama in the Democrat Party primary but rather a third-party bid.

The only thing that a primary challenge does is allow Obama to play the centrist role.  Anyone contemplating such a challenge is insane to begin with considering that Obama can have pretty much admit to sleeping with Vera Baker and still win 95% of the black vote in the primary and as we all know, African-Americans comprise a good percentage of the vote in the Democrat Party primary.

So I put the percentage of a serious challenge at .01%.

However, a smart liberal who perhaps could be persuaded by some money from the GOP base has a better shot at a third-party campaign that pushes for tax increases on the wealthy, closing off the borders, pro-gay marriage/abortion, surrendering in Afghanistan, and campaigning against corporate bailouts.  In other words, a populist liberal who was an immigration hawk who could push populist arguments against Obamacare could find some traction in a third-party campaign.
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jfern
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2010, 10:44:43 PM »

It's pretty clear that the Democratic party will take decades to recover from a 2012 Obama nomination. His approval needs to tank in the next year so that a strong challenger emerges. Worst case would have him tanking after he gets the nomination.
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Beet
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« Reply #15 on: December 08, 2010, 01:00:19 AM »

A lot higher than I would have told you 3 months ago.

pounder- you're wrong. A primary challenge is always a sign of trouble.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2010, 01:07:24 AM »

Beet, what are the chances of Christine O'Donnell challenging Obama for the nomination and winning?
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2010, 01:11:43 AM »

100%
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2010, 01:57:08 AM »

I think pounding is correct and the CW on a primary is wrong.  As for Feingold, not only did his spokesperson say not running for president, but he joined the GOP filibuster.  Not sure his reasons  though.  He may oppose the tax cuts for anyone for all I know.  Anyway, Raul Grivalja or someone may run but Obama will be able to ignore it and have no primary debates.
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jfern
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« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2010, 02:02:45 AM »

I think pounding is correct and the CW on a primary is wrong.  As for Feingold, not only did his spokesperson say not running for president, but he joined the GOP filibuster.  Not sure his reasons  though.  He may oppose the tax cuts for anyone for all I know.  Anyway, Raul Grivalja or someone may run but Obama will be able to ignore it and have no primary debates.

Russ Feingold and Jim Moran oppose the tax cuts. All of them.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2010, 02:08:16 AM »

Well I admire Feingold for his principles but he maybe validates Obama's argument about rigidity as the actual effect of his vote was to help extend the tax cuts for everyone instead of expiring a large portion of them.
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phk
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« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2010, 02:22:22 AM »

A serious primary challenge is very, very unlikely.
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2010, 02:24:23 AM »

Well I admire Feingold for his principles but he maybe validates Obama's argument about rigidity as the actual effect of his vote was to help extend the tax cuts for everyone instead of expiring a large portion of them.

I think that you're rather overstating Feingold's relevance to this tax cut deal.
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