MA-PPP: Romney 47% Palin 12% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10% Pawlenty 4% Paul 3%

[Mr. Morden]

PPP primary poll of Massachusetts:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_1206.pdf

Romney 47%
Palin 12%
Gingrich 11%
Huckabee 10%
Pawlenty 4%
Paul 3%
Thune 2%
Daniels 1%

favorability / unfavorability among GOP primary voters:

Gingrich 53% / 27%
Huckabee 56% / 27%
Palin 60% / 31%
Romney 73% / 20%

men:

Romney 39%
Gingrich 14%
Palin 13%
Huckabee 10%

women:

Romney 55%
Palin 12%
Huckabee 11%
Gingrich 7%

[Mr. Morden]

Women sure don't like Gingrich. Have we seen that reflected in other polls?

Actually, yes.  Almost every poll shows a notable gender split on Gingrich, with him being much stronger among men than women.

[Mr. Morden]

Actually, I've looked at three other states, and I see it in NC, but not in MO and MT.

Well, OK, I should have been more precise.  Gingrich does better with men than with women in nearly every primary poll, but the difference is sometimes small.  Even in MO and MT, he does a bit better with men, but only by a couple of points.  Look for example at these six states:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FLMEMNTXWVWI_1111.pdf

He does better with men than women in every state, but in a couple of cases, it's only by one point.  It's prevalent enough that it's not likely to be a coincidence.

[Mr. Morden]

Separately, I assume rivals will try to spin NH as a Romney favorite son effect a la Kerry and Tsongas so as to drag on his mo' from a win there.  Some spec. they'll yield it to him.

If Romney wins NH, then that's obviously how they'll try to spin it.  That doesn't mean that no one else is going to try to contest it though, as some have suggested.  I basically agree with this post on that:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/11/it-will-not-happen.html

The other candidates are not just going to give Romney a free pass in NH.  I mean, he was up by like 20 points there at one point in the fall of 2007, and still ended up losing it.  You really think the other candidates are all going to conclude that they can't win in NH, or even beat expectations, and just hand Romney a free victory?