PPP: Sen. Stabenow (D-Mich) leads Hoekstra and Engler

[Brittain33]

I'm calling this fools' gold for Republicans unless 2012 is a repeat of 2010. Michigan's economy is still bad, so incumbents aren't going to look good... this is why the more established Republicans aren't doing better. The state's lean in a presidential year and the fact that Dem policy is much more favorable to Michigan than Republican is going to keep this in the D column, as with Washington and California this year. Even Feingold would have won in a 2012 electorate and Michigan isn't Wisconsin.

[Brittain33]

I suspect the Dems are in  deep trouble in Michigan in 2012. The numbers this time in the state were that bad for the Dems. I didn't fully fathom it, until I vetted the state intensively, in the past month or so, as I was doing my redistricting plans. The Dems will need a big snap back, and it was not as if Detroit this time did not show up and vote. To me, the critical states in 2012 are Michigan and Wisconsin. I suspect Michigan will be more GOP than PA. I also think the economy will remain tepid in 2012, with still high unemployment. We have a long hard road folks.

Did you see PPP's numbers in Michigan for Obama vs. the Republicans this past week? I would have shared your concern until I saw that. He's trouncing everyone except for Romney by double digits, and leading Romney substantially.

Here's the thread, you have to ignore the predictions to get to the real numbers.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129000.0

[Brittain33]

Not sure how a lead that's barely outside the margin of error is "substantial."

True. I think I used that term because I was surprised at how well Obama is doing across the board in Michigan, but it doesn't make it a substantial lead in absolute terms.