US House Redistricting: Utah

[Nichlemn]

Utah seems to have a certain tolerance for LDS Tory Dems, and Matheson will be very hard to take out, and if you try too hard, an LDS Tory Dem might knock off some incumbent Pubbie unexpectedly, or win an open seat if somebody vacates it. It has happened before - or nearly happened. So I would bear that in mind.

Whatever district you draw for Matheson, the other three districts are going to be R+20ish anyway. (You can't weaken them too much or else Matheson will just run in one of them). The increased safety at the margin from making them a few points more Republican is pretty inconsequential.

Furthermore, you have to weigh up the risk that Matheson retires in the next ten years and the district you drew for him gets won by one of these "Tory Dems" you refer to it. I think the chance of this is higher than one of the other three districts going Democratic.

[Nichlemn]

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/sb3002s17


These cracks keep getting better and better.

All the comments on that page are negative...even the ones from Republicans.

Which "Republicans" would that be?

Maybe, this one:

"I am 'far right wing' republican, and am frustrated with the legislature with these maps."

In my entire life I have never meet a Republican whom characterized himself as "far right wing." I have encountered Democrats pretending to be Republicans describe themselves as such.

Ahhh, its always refreshing to hear from my good friend BS Bob!

I've met Republicans who would probably characterize themselves in such a way; you shouldn't base your argument on such a provincial claim.

Either you have meet Republicans who did characterize themselves in such a way, or you haven't.

I, personally, have never meet such a person. Nor, is it a claim very consistent with human nature. I meet people whom would consider themselves "very conservative," but, I have never meet a person whom called himself "far right wing." Generally, conservatives believe "right wing" is a slur made against conservatives because "conservative" simply doesn't carry the baggage "liberal" does.

It's not much that "right wing" is a slur, but "far right" certainly is. "Far right" is most commonly used to describe neo-Nazi and other white nationalist-esque groups. To call someone who is merely very conservative "far right" is to call upon that equivocation. A self-identified "very conservative" person would not describe themselves as such for that very reason.

[Nichlemn]

Roll Call came up with the numbers for the proposed map:

UT-01: McCain: 67; Bush: 76
UT-02: McCain: 58; Bush 67
UT-03: McCain: 67; Bush: 76
UT-04: McCain: 56; Bush: 66

Seems inefficient if true. Even if they want to give Matheson his own seat to deter him from embarking on a statewide run, why not distribute PVI more equally among the three other districts?