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« Reply #50 on: March 19, 2012, 12:15:43 pm »
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So what are the odds that this map passes the full House, or even the Senate?
I don't know / unless I am exceedingly mistaken absolute dead zero. Then again, the chances the Senate's map passes the full House aren't much higher, I suppose.
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« Reply #51 on: March 19, 2012, 12:39:01 pm »
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So with GOP supermajorities in both chambers what's the big hangup?
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« Reply #52 on: March 19, 2012, 12:50:29 pm »
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So with GOP supermajorities in both chambers what's the big hangup?
In practice it's a three-party system and no party has a majority in either chamber. You do remember anything you've ever heard about the Republican Party in Kansas, don't you?
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« Reply #53 on: March 19, 2012, 04:06:25 pm »
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Sure but it seems weird the Republican factions would deadlock over redistricting.

So anyway what's the deadline that if they fail to get anything passed we get a court-drawn map? That could preserve a competitive 3rd district.
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« Reply #54 on: March 19, 2012, 04:22:41 pm »
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Don't know the date, but in june.
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« Reply #55 on: March 19, 2012, 09:49:43 pm »

So with GOP supermajorities in both chambers what's the big hangup?
In practice it's a three-party system and no party has a majority in either chamber. You do remember anything you've ever heard about the Republican Party in Kansas, don't you?

Given the dynamics in KS, I still think the Dems should have a map like mine above ready as an entry for the court.
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« Reply #56 on: March 31, 2012, 04:53:59 am »
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Update. The above House map has died on the House floor. (Seems that it wasn't actually put to a vote as the result would have been to embarassing? Or maybe I just can't find a news article about the vote itself right now.)
The leadership then presented an alternative map that kept a reasonable 3rd and split Topeka between the 1st and 2nd. This was passed, don't know by how much, but killed in the Senate 17-23.
The House leadership then presented a version that would have drawn all of the Southeast corner into the 4th and apparently taken both the 1st and 2nd into the Wichita exurbs. This went down in flames on the House floor 48-76. (Maybe that was the whole point - showing the waverers, "see? This is the only alternative if you want a watertight 3 safe R, 1 lean R for Yoder and not utterly butcher KC or Topeka"?)
Then they presented a barely amended version of the splitting Topeka map - at least the last two of these  went through the Redistricting Committee along identical 11-11-speaker-breaks-tie lines. Btw. This second version looks like this:



It passed the House, and died 14-24-2 abstentions in the Senate.

Some Topeka Dem House member summarizing the situation... "Itíll be one of [Speaker O'Neal's] maps or no map. Itís looking like no map."
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« Reply #57 on: March 31, 2012, 09:30:18 am »
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Bob Dole 1?
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« Reply #58 on: March 31, 2012, 09:32:39 am »
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For some reason I cannot fathom, all plans introduced to the Kansas legislature have cutesy names.
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« Reply #59 on: March 31, 2012, 03:32:23 pm »
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OK, it's my turn. Mirror, mirror on the wall, what is the fairest of them all?

To me, it's this one, assuming the idea of making a hash of KS-01 to import excess Pubs into KS-03 to make it nice and Pub safe via KS-01 taking Douglas County (Lawrence), and KS-02 taking Wyandotte, is dead because the western rurals won't stand for it.





But Ms. Jenkins, the incumbent of KS-02, is demanding that Manhattan remain in her district, which creates problems. One way to do it, without making a hash of KS-04, is the map below. The negative is that it makes KS-02 rather uncomfortably Democratic (yes, Pubs outside KS-03 are obviously spoiled). Pittsburgh, KS may not be as bad for the Pubs as Pittsburgh, PA, but relatively speaking, it's still a bad place when KS-02 already has Topeka and Lawrence.





Giving Ms. Jenkins Manhattan without making KS-02 as Dem (Pittsburgh goes into KS-04), unfortunately does make a hash of KS-04. The incumbent there would not be happy with the shape of this ugly duckling, all for the purpose of taking in Pittsburgh which he doesn't want anyway.





So, I can see now why everyone is at each other's throats, and why Dorothy may not want to go back home to Kansas even if she could. Someone should tell Jenkins that Manhattan, KS just isn't as fun as the one the Dutch bought from the Native Americans for $24.00, and she should just get over her fixation. Really.


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« Reply #60 on: March 31, 2012, 03:49:03 pm »
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Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.
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« Reply #61 on: March 31, 2012, 04:08:37 pm »
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Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.

Southeastern Kansas (Baxter Springs) is where my great grandfather went from Jackson County, Indiana (a place he described as one where nobody amounted to much and never would), in his covered wagon with his new bride to claim his 160 acres under the Homestead Act as a Civil War Veteran. Great Grandfather was on Sherman's March to the Sea carrying two bullets in him acquired from all that action in Tennessee which he retained until his death in 1933 at age 93, in the rear guard as sharpshooter, trying to pick off the men in gray, who were trying to pick off them. My grandmother asked how good his aim was; he said well, more than once, hostile bullets ceased to fly after he took aim and pulled the trigger. That is all that he would say about it. They didn't eat much; there wasn't much around to eat for that rear guard, where the land had been "cleansed" of anything productive.

Anyway, as to SE Kansas, Baxter Springs was hell. Two of his first three children died there. There were some Native Americans around that did not appreciate the interlopers. So he finally decamped to Winterset, IA, and bought 10 arable acres for $12,000 an acre in today's dollars, next door to where his brother had a rather larger farm (how his brother got there is unknown, my grandmother never talked about that, and I discovered this all looking at old deeds in the Madison County Courthouse last year). Finally, his bonus for serving as a Veteran arrived rather late in 1877 (grandmother didn't mention that either, but I connected the dots, and figured out what must have happened), and with that money, he bought the bottom land just south of Winterset, of which I am now a proud one sixth owner. That land made him "rich" as it were.

It's kind of fun to part a part of American history that way. It comes alive, up close and personal.

Here by the way is a snap of my great grandparents on their 50th wedding anniversary, in front of the home they bought from a chap along with the upland meadows that he owned around 1916 or something (I discovered that too from examining the deeds). The home was built in 1846, and is on the historical register. Sadly, it is now in disrepair inside. Alas, another project for me. My goal is to restore it before I assume room temperature. It deserves it. It's right on John Wayne drive two blocks south of the square, next door to John Wayne's birthplace.

« Last Edit: March 31, 2012, 04:42:47 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #62 on: March 31, 2012, 04:15:00 pm »
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Baxter Springs, eh? Referenced in one of the greatest songs ever.

Ruth Ann and Lynn come down from Baxter Springs
That's one hell raisin' town way up in Southeastern Kansas

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« Reply #63 on: March 31, 2012, 04:17:25 pm »
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Baxter Springs, eh? Referenced in one of the greatest songs ever.

Ruth Ann and Lynn come down from Baxter Springs
That's one hell raisin' town way up in Southeastern Kansas



Thank you. Something good finally came from the place I guess. Smiley
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« Reply #64 on: March 31, 2012, 04:59:10 pm »

Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.

Southeastern Kansas (Baxter Springs) is where my great grandfather went from Jackson County, Indiana (a place he described as one where nobody amounted to much and never would), in his covered wagon with his new bride to claim his 160 acres under the Homestead Act as a Civil War Veteran. Great Grandfather was on Sherman's March to the Sea carrying two bullets in him acquired from all that action in Tennessee which he retained until his death in 1933 at age 93, in the rear guard as sharpshooter, trying to pick off the men in gray, who were trying to pick off them. My grandmother asked how good his aim was; he said well, more than once, hostile bullets ceased to fly after he took aim and pulled the trigger. That is all that he would say about it. They didn't eat much; there wasn't much around to eat for that rear guard, where the land had been "cleansed" of anything productive.

Anyway, as to SE Kansas, Baxter Springs was hell. Two of his first three children died there. There were some Native Americans around that did not appreciate the interlopers. So he finally decamped to Winterset, IA, and bought 10 arable acres for $12,000 an acre in today's dollars, next door to where his brother had a rather larger farm (how his brother got there is unknown, my grandmother never talked about that, and I discovered this all looking at old deeds in the Madison County Courthouse last year). Finally, his bonus for serving as a Veteran arrived rather late in 1877 (grandmother didn't mention that either, but I connected the dots, and figured out what must have happened), and with that money, he bought the bottom land just south of Winterset, or which I am now a proud one sixth owner. That land made him "rich" as it were.

It's kind of fun to part a part of American history that way. It comes alive, up close and personal.

That is truly fascinating. You see, my great grandfather along with his parents and brothers lived in Sheridan township KS in 1880 in the same Cherokee county as Baxter Springs. They originally also came from IN, however it was from Clinton county up near Kokomo, and they resided in MN for a few years in the 1870's before heading to KS. To continue the parallel my great grandmother and my grandfather eventually moved from MN to IA (Linn Co). Spooky.

When I was showing Cherokee county to my family on our 2008 road trip, I found it was home to the world's largest coal shovel, 16 stories high.

Anyway, to avoid splitting SE KS, why not give it to the western CD as I suggested earlier in the thread? The Dems can be split by putting Lawrence with OP and KCKS with Manhattan. Both those CDs are then about 51.5% McCain.



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« Reply #65 on: March 31, 2012, 05:18:49 pm »
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Interesting map. But does "Baxter Springs" really want to be tied to the western rurals via that narrow corridor that you drew, and visa versa ?  Do the incumbents in KS-01 and KS-02 really want all that much new territory? (The incumbent in KS-01 by the way, lives near Dodge City; I checked when I axed Emporia from KS-01 just to make sure I was not stepping in it, and KS-01 seems to have a veto power here, even if it leaves other CD's rather more marginal.) Does Jenkins to get her blessed Manhattan, really want a CD which is that Dem as the quid pro quo (and she talks about her "eastern KS CD, not her NE Kansas CD)?  Sure the KS-03 folks will be happy.  Where are the votes in the legislature?  What is it that each faction really wants?  So many questions, so little time. It is amazing in a state this Pub, that we are having this battle. It's all very odd. It is as if a bunch of spoiled children are having a difficult time playing together in the sandbox.

Yes, your family journey does rather track mine. All you need is the covered wagon and Civil War stories, and we might be related. Smiley
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« Reply #66 on: March 31, 2012, 06:02:58 pm »

Interesting map. But does "Baxter Springs" really want to be tied to the western rurals via that narrow corridor that you drew, and visa versa ?

Based on my visit there, I would think that Baxter Springs would rather be tied to Dodge City than to Lawrence and Topeka.

In the next decade, CD 3 is most at risk politically for the GOP. As inner KC suburbs mature, they'll lose the hard R pattern, like others before them. It's more important to bring that R number up there than in any other district. So, I do think that a trade of SE KS for Manhattan and some Dems should be a good compromise.
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« Reply #67 on: March 31, 2012, 06:22:48 pm »
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Interesting map. But does "Baxter Springs" really want to be tied to the western rurals via that narrow corridor that you drew, and visa versa ?

Based on my visit there, I would think that Baxter Springs would rather be tied to Dodge City than to Lawrence and Topeka.

In the next decade, CD 3 is most at risk politically for the GOP. As inner KC suburbs mature, they'll lose the hard R pattern, like others before them. It's more important to bring that R number up there than in any other district. So, I do think that a trade of SE KS for Manhattan and some Dems should be a good compromise.

Now you are assuming folks are rational in Kansas. I don't see any evidence of that myself. Smiley

I take your point, but it is not as if the KC burbs are going to expand outside the boundaries of KS-03 any time soon (there is some vacant land between the housing tracts and the county lines). Usually the pattern is that for a metro area of some dynamic growth, it grows outside the boundaries of the CD, which is what makes the inner burb CD more Dem as the exurbs expand beyond those lines. The Kansas City metro area really doesn't qualify. However, the metro area as a whole might be trending Dem. Most metro areas are. 
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« Reply #68 on: March 31, 2012, 06:33:01 pm »
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Hacking up Southeast Kansas is almost as frowned upon (by politicians with connections to there) as hacking up KC or Topeka or Wichita. It's a well-defined region.

One thing that surprises me is that Jenkins was very much considered the moderate candidate in the 2008 primary... you wouldn't think that given the political battle lines now.

Southeastern Kansas (Baxter Springs) is where my great grandfather went from Jackson County, Indiana (a place he described as one where nobody amounted to much and never would), in his covered wagon with his new bride to claim his 160 acres under the Homestead Act as a Civil War Veteran. Great Grandfather was on Sherman's March to the Sea carrying two bullets in him acquired from all that action in Tennessee which he retained until his death in 1933 at age 93, in the rear guard as sharpshooter, trying to pick off the men in gray, who were trying to pick off them. My grandmother asked how good his aim was; he said well, more than once, hostile bullets ceased to fly after he took aim and pulled the trigger. That is all that he would say about it. They didn't eat much; there wasn't much around to eat for that rear guard, where the land had been "cleansed" of anything productive.

Anyway, as to SE Kansas, Baxter Springs was hell. Two of his first three children died there. There were some Native Americans around that did not appreciate the interlopers. So he finally decamped to Winterset, IA, and bought 10 arable acres for $12,000 an acre in today's dollars, next door to where his brother had a rather larger farm (how his brother got there is unknown, my grandmother never talked about that, and I discovered this all looking at old deeds in the Madison County Courthouse last year). Finally, his bonus for serving as a Veteran arrived rather late in 1877 (grandmother didn't mention that either, but I connected the dots, and figured out what must have happened), and with that money, he bought the bottom land just south of Winterset, of which I am now a proud one sixth owner. That land made him "rich" as it were.

It's kind of fun to part a part of American history that way. It comes alive, up close and personal.

Here by the way is a snap of my great grandparents on their 50th wedding anniversary, in front of the home they bought from a chap along with the upland meadows that he owned around 1916 or something (I discovered that too from examining the deeds). The home was built in 1846, and is on the historical register. Sadly, it is now in disrepair inside. Alas, another project for me. My goal is to restore it before I assume room temperature. It deserves it. It's right on John Wayne drive two blocks south of the square, next door to John Wayne's birthplace.



how did your family end up in SoCal?
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« Reply #69 on: March 31, 2012, 06:52:22 pm »
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My mother's younger sister moved to NYC to take up acting, my mother joined her and got a job working for my Dad as his secretary, intrigued by his cleverly worded ad, and after she left right before getting fired to join the Red Cross and go to England right before the end of WW II, and upon her return to her home in Davenport, Iowa (grandmother married this guy she met in college who set up his medical practice there), my Dad flew to Chicago to meet up with her, and wooed her for 3 days until she said yes, she would marry him (he thought her talents lay elsewhere than in typing), and then he was introduced to a guy who owned a record company in LA by his older brother, who did film special effects (he got his start due to their uncle being a film director after having started as a stunt man when films were made on Long Island) and befriended the record guy back when, when he owned a radio shop, and over the years my Dad entertained the record guy when he came to NYC on business, and finally the record guy persuaded him to come to LA to start an advertising agency, with the record company and one other company that the record guy secured for him as his clients,  and then my Dad a couple of years later joined the record company, and I was born about 4 years later and grew up in LA.

Kind of complicated isn't it?  Smiley
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« Reply #70 on: March 31, 2012, 09:55:11 pm »
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Why is Jenkins so obsessed with keeping Manhattan?
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« Reply #71 on: March 31, 2012, 09:58:18 pm »
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Why is Jenkins so obsessed with keeping Manhattan?

Maybe she believes "The Great White Hope" is a K-State wildcats fan.
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« Reply #72 on: April 01, 2012, 03:21:36 am »
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They remember the 2006 election. It swung far less than the rural bits and (the county it's in. The city itself presumably not) actually voted for Ryun. While Topeka's Shawnee County provided almost all of Boyda's four point victory margin, that does mean she actually (barely) won the district outside of Shawnee.

The Kansas Map (with split counties being combined by party)



Overall:
Republicans - 449548 (54%, 2 seats)
Democrats - 360356 (44%, 2 seats)
Reform - 16213 (2%)

Didn't think that Boyda won so many little counties, did you?

(Also, guess where John Doll's house is! Doll being the KS-01 candidate who got blown out by Moran.)
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« Reply #73 on: April 01, 2012, 12:55:40 pm »
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Here is the map the RNC might draw (using Muon2's approach to drawing KS-03). No doubt something like it has been drawn - and rejected. 



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« Reply #74 on: April 01, 2012, 01:20:20 pm »

Here is the map the RNC might draw (using Muon2's approach to drawing KS-03). No doubt something like it has been drawn - and rejected. 





Indeed, you posted it from a news article last August. Wink

http://www.mcphersonsentinel.com/news/x404073585/County-moves-to-2nd-in-controversial-proposal?photo=0

Unclear whether this is a real proposal or just Dems being preemptive.

It's rather amusing that 60% of the geography of the state is being used to neutralize two thirds of little old Wyandotte County.  But then I used close to half of Ohio to contain not so little Columbus. Smiley


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