What did Sweeney say about NY-20 in 2001, "It would take a lot of effort for a Republican to loose that seat". Or something like that. And then in 2006, he proved his own statement. 
Sweeney was just dumb. That seat was easily identifiable as a marginal, as Presidential results made very clear. KS-02 was not, at all.
He was not denying how marginal it was, he was saying that a Republican should be fine as long as didn't find trouble for himself. Sweeney did find trouble (what was it, domestic abuse or something like that? He also had some lobbying/corruption issues in a year when such wasn't acceptable). NY-23 is of similar partisan leanings and McHugh didn't have even the faintest trouble. The quality of the incubment made the difference.
