US House Redistricting: Wisconsin

[ag]

So, that's what I've gathered. In particular, you don't need any more votes that were cast for the winners last November: if 5% turn out and 51% of that votes for somebody other than the incumbent, the incumbent's out. Which means that if turnout is low - and how high can it be in July of an odd-numbered year? - GOTV is going to decide a lot. For once, the unions might, in fact, be quite relevant

[ill ind]

  I've been kind of puzzled by the whole recall thing too.  The first person the Unions make a TV/internet add against and go after is Luther Olson (R-14).  I was born and raised in the Wi 14th Senate District and my first political experience was campaigning for the Democratic nominee for State Senate in that District back in 1984 (before half the people on this board were actually born :->)
  That District was gerrymandered to be a solid GOP district in the early 80's and remains so today.  It is a long swath of mostly rural territory stretching from Clinonville in the northeast to Wisconsin Dells in the southwest and including strong GOP counties such as Waupaca, Waushara, Green Lake, and Marquette. 
 I find it incredibly puzzling that the unions can get off wasting money going after someone in about as safe a district as you can get.  Most people who contribute are from out of the area and don't have familiarity with the district and the fact that they are tossing their money into the wind.

Ill Ind

[Dgov]

  I've been kind of puzzled by the whole recall thing too.  The first person the Unions make a TV/internet add against and go after is Luther Olson (R-14).  I was born and raised in the Wi 14th Senate District and my first political experience was campaigning for the Democratic nominee for State Senate in that District back in 1984 (before half the people on this board were actually born :->)
  That District was gerrymandered to be a solid GOP district in the early 80's and remains so today.  It is a long swath of mostly rural territory stretching from Clinonville in the northeast to Wisconsin Dells in the southwest and including strong GOP counties such as Waupaca, Waushara, Green Lake, and Marquette. 
 I find it incredibly puzzling that the unions can get off wasting money going after someone in about as safe a district as you can get.  Most people who contribute are from out of the area and don't have familiarity with the district and the fact that they are tossing their money into the wind.

Ill Ind

Well, to be honest I think the State Democrats are either trying to show they're serious about recalling EVERYONE they can, or are vastly overestimating their current level of support.  Probably a mix of both actually.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP are polling all eight of the Senators who are vulnerable to a recall, so I guess we'll find out something. Though I'm sure if they're vulnerable people will just dismiss it because Kos is sponsoring it.

I suspect that Kapanke is screwed; he's in the most Democratic district of the eight. Hopper is also in some trouble; his district is pretty Republican, but inconveniently for him, it's just come out that he doesn't live in his district any more, he lives in Madison with his ex-lobbyist girlfriend.

[cinyc]

PPP are polling all eight of the Senators who are vulnerable to a recall, so I guess we'll find out something. Though I'm sure if they're vulnerable people will just dismiss it because Kos is sponsoring it.

I suspect that Kapanke is screwed; he's in the most Democratic district of the eight. Hopper is also in some trouble; his district is pretty Republican, but inconveniently for him, it's just come out that he doesn't live in his district any more, he lives in Madison with his ex-lobbyist girlfriend.

Are they just polling Republican-held seats?  Recalls work both ways.

[Mr.Phips]

PPP are polling all eight of the Senators who are vulnerable to a recall, so I guess we'll find out something. Though I'm sure if they're vulnerable people will just dismiss it because Kos is sponsoring it.

I suspect that Kapanke is screwed; he's in the most Democratic district of the eight. Hopper is also in some trouble; his district is pretty Republican, but inconveniently for him, it's just come out that he doesn't live in his district any more, he lives in Madison with his ex-lobbyist girlfriend.

Are they just polling Republican-held seats?  Recalls work both ways.

There is only one Democrat left who comes from a swing district in the Wisconsin Senate.

[Invisible Obama]

I'm reading that the polling will show two GOP Senators trailing, three in toss-ups, one leaning and just two completely safe.

[cinyc]

PPP are polling all eight of the Senators who are vulnerable to a recall, so I guess we'll find out something. Though I'm sure if they're vulnerable people will just dismiss it because Kos is sponsoring it.

I suspect that Kapanke is screwed; he's in the most Democratic district of the eight. Hopper is also in some trouble; his district is pretty Republican, but inconveniently for him, it's just come out that he doesn't live in his district any more, he lives in Madison with his ex-lobbyist girlfriend.

Are they just polling Republican-held seats?  Recalls work both ways.

There is only one Democrat left who comes from a swing district in the Wisconsin Senate.

So did Kos poll that race, or is he assuming, like you, that all Democrats will be safe because Democrats are all that is good in the world and Rethuglicans are pure evil?

By the way, please delude yourself into thinking that all other 2008 class Wisconsin Senate Democrats are safe.  2008 was a very good year for Wisconsin Democrats.  And there are three in the 2010 class who are vulnerable, should it come to that a year from now.

[Invisible Obama]

So did Kos poll that race, or is he assuming, like you, that all Democrats will be safe because Democrats are all that is good in the world and Rethuglicans are pure evil?

By the way, please delude yourself into thinking that all other 2008 class Wisconsin Senate Democrats are safe.  2008 was a very good year for Wisconsin Democrats.  And there are three in the 2010 class who are vulnerable, should it come to that a year from now.

They only polled the Republican seats, because that's where the action is, no need to go off about it. The Republicans haven't even organized any recall efforts at this point and seeing as Republican stock is down in Wisconsin, the chances of any Democrats being recalled are low. You can't play a big offense when a big defense is the main event.

[Invisible Obama]

And the numbers are in

Democrat 55
Dan Kapanke 41

Democrat 49
Randy Hopper 44

Democrat 49
Luther Olsen 47

Rob Cowles 45
Democrat 43

Sheila Harsdorf 48
Democrat 44

Alberta Darling 52
Democrat 44

Mary Lazich 56
Democrat 34

Glenn Grothman 60
Democrat 32

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is getting really off-topic; I made a thread for the recall elections. I'm going to go ahead and post those numbers there.

[cinyc]

They only polled the Republican seats, because that's where the action is, no need to go off about it. The Republicans haven't even organized any recall efforts at this point and seeing as Republican stock is down in Wisconsin, the chances of any Democrats being recalled are low. You can't play a big offense when a big defense is the main event.

Incorrect.  There are recall efforts on BOTH sides.

Feel free to keep spewing uniformed, "Democrats good, Rethuglicans bad" Talking Points Memo talking points, though.

[Torie]

Ah the partisan acrimony is just about everywhere isn't it? 

[Invisible Obama]

Incorrect.  There are recall efforts on BOTH sides.

Feel free to keep spewing uniformed, "Democrats good, Rethuglicans bad" Talking Points Memo talking points, though.

Anyone can file the recall, having the organization to the get the signatures is another. It doesn't appear that there is much of an organized effort to get signatures in Democratic districts.

[jimrtex]

So, that's what I've gathered. In particular, you don't need any more votes that were cast for the winners last November: if 5% turn out and 51% of that votes for somebody other than the incumbent, the incumbent's out. Which means that if turnout is low - and how high can it be in July of an odd-numbered year? - GOTV is going to decide a lot. For once, the unions might, in fact, be quite relevant

No its not really a recall, so much as a do-over.

The incumbent is just another candidate.  The only thing special is that he doesn't have to actually file for election.  He goes on the ballot, unless he resigns.  Everyone else files just like it was a special election.  It's not everyone vs. the incumbent, its everyone for themselves.  There can be an extra round of primaries if more than one candidate files for a party nomination.  Since each election is separate, these may really get strung out.

Schedule is like this: 60 days to gather petitions; 31 days to validate (and it appears like this part can get pushed into court real easily); 6 weeks until the election; but if a primary is needed, then it takes the place of the special election, and the special election is 4 weeks after that.  We're easily past the start of the fiscal biennium before anything is resolved.

The recall law applies to all elected officials (even federal officials, but that is probably not enforceable).  You could possibly see bunches of school board members and county officials facing recall elections when they start firing people.

[jimrtex]

  I've been kind of puzzled by the whole recall thing too.  The first person the Unions make a TV/internet add against and go after is Luther Olson (R-14).  I was born and raised in the Wi 14th Senate District and my first political experience was campaigning for the Democratic nominee for State Senate in that District back in 1984 (before half the people on this board were actually born :->)
  That District was gerrymandered to be a solid GOP district in the early 80's and remains so today.  It is a long swath of mostly rural territory stretching from Clinonville in the northeast to Wisconsin Dells in the southwest and including strong GOP counties such as Waupaca, Waushara, Green Lake, and Marquette. 
 I find it incredibly puzzling that the unions can get off wasting money going after someone in about as safe a district as you can get.  Most people who contribute are from out of the area and don't have familiarity with the district and the fact that they are tossing their money into the wind.

Ill Ind

Well, to be honest I think the State Democrats are either trying to show they're serious about recalling EVERYONE they can, or are vastly overestimating their current level of support.  Probably a mix of both actually.

The Republicans filed first (you have to announce your petition drive and have 60 days to complete it).  They said they were going to recall the Democratic senators for not showing up.   They couldn't very easily say that they were only recalling Democrats from vulnerable areas who weren't showing up, so they were all filed on.  The Democrats are almost forced to follow suit.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If I may be allowed to float a 4-2-2 map...



WI-01 (blue, Paul Ryan - R) - carves Racine out of the district and adds more of the reliably Republican Milwaukee 'burbs. I don't have numbers on this one, but it definitely moves to the Republicans.
WI-02 (green, Tammy Baldwin - D) - Safe Dem territory centered around Madison; this one's about 63-64% Kerry.
WI-03 (purple, Ron Kind - D) - Loses St. Croix, adds some counties to the east, pretty much unchanged, still 51% Kerry.
WI-04 (red, Gwen Moore - D) - Pretty much the same, safe D. No need to figure the numbers on this one.
WI-05 (yellow, Jim Sensenbrenner - R) - Wraps around Milwaukee and pulls in Racine from WI-01. Not sure on the numbers, but it should still be >55% Bush.
WI-06 (teal, Tom Petri - R) - Pulls Portage County out of WI-07, most significantly, but should still be >55% Bush.
WI-07 (grey, Sean Duffy - R) - If the Republicans want to cede WI-03 to the Democrats, they'll cut the heavily-Dem counties out of the northwest part of this district. Here, I decided to go "good government" and leave them intact. I did try to annex as much Republican-friendly territory as possible; the district definitely flips from Kerry to Bush, and should be around 51% Bush.
WI-08 (light purple, Reid Ribble - R) - Pulls in most of Marathon and loses the counties to the north; I'm estimating it's around 54% Bush.

[Vasall des Midas]

I drew this map yesterday. You decide if it's a gerrymander, a dummymander, or an exercise in competitive districts.





I may have overlooked something, but I think Milwaukee is the only split municipality. Weird looking boundary around Madison is the city line.

1st loses Milwaukee suburbia, gains remainder of Rock and southeast Milwaukee County. 56.1% Obama.

2nd Madison is divorced from her Dem-leaning suburbs and allied with Milwaukee's Rep suburbs instead. 57.5% Obama.

3rd barely amended. 57.7% Obama.

4th loses the North Side, gains suburbs. 58.4% Obama and as polarized as they come - it's 60.8% White in total population, but 66.8% in VAP btw.

5th completely redrawn, North Milwaukee to Manitowoc. 55.3% Obama.

6th has shifted southwestward, most notably into suburban Madison. 54.8% Obama.

7th barely amended. 55.6% Obama, but would have voted for Duffy in 2010 anyways.

8th not changed all that much either. Gains remainder of Appleton, and loses some suburban territory. 54.3% Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There are rumors that the Republicans are going to try to shove through redistricting in a special session this week.

[krazen1211]

There are rumors that the Republicans are going to try to shove through redistricting in a special session this week.

All 3 levels?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There are rumors that the Republicans are going to try to shove through redistricting in a special session this week.

All 3 levels?

I'm not sure, but I don't see how they could do Congressional redistricting without the new ward data (since they would need to have zero deviation, while state legislative districts get a 5% leeway). Besides, they just need to do the state legislature right now to screw up the recalls.

[BigSkyBob]

There are rumors that the Republicans are going to try to shove through redistricting in a special session this week.

All 3 levels?

I'm not sure, but I don't see how they could do Congressional redistricting without the new ward data (since they would need to have zero deviation, while state legislative districts get a 5% leeway). Besides, they just need to do the state legislature right now to screw up the recalls.

It is a bizarre notion to claim that after a special election in a district some folks would have two representatives, and others none. Unless Wisconsin law has some very bizarre elements, special elections are held under the old lines until the next general election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an article about a proposed Congressional map being passed around. PDF of the map is here.

Drops WI-07 down to 53-45 Obama and pushes WI-03 up to 59-39 Obama. All the other districts look to be pretty much unchanged, number-wise.

[krazen1211]

No Racine into the Milwaukee district = fail.

Rest is ok.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Wow, I'm surprised.

Bye bye Ryan.