US House Redistricting: Wisconsin

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What exactly is "angry" about him in this article? He sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[BigSkyBob]

What exactly is "angry" about him in this article? He sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I think the appropriate word is "hypocritical" given the fact that when Mr Obey and Mr Sensenbrenner sat down to reapportion they didn't aim at increasing the competitiveness of Wisconsin seats, rather they increased the Republican nature of Republican held seats and the Democratic nature of Democratically held seats. That is exactly what the proposed map does.

[krazen1211]

What exactly is "angry" about him in this article? He sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Most retired reps slink off into the sunset or get a lobbyist job (Obey did do this). Rarely do you see them go around complaining about maps.

I just wonder if we see Lautenberg 2.0 in the mix. He'll probably clean Duffy's clock.

[Vasall des Midas]

Or Walker's in '14.

[Dgov]

Wow, Seriously?  Wisconsin's Proposed map is one of the fairest ones.  As it stands, there will be 2 Safe D seats (2nd and 4th), 1 Likely D seat (3rd), 1 tossup (7th), 2 lean R Seats (8th and 1st), 1 likely R seat (6th) and 1 Safe R Seat (5th).  All of the districts cover relatively solid COI areas, and the Republicans could have easily have gone for a much more aggressive map.

The only significant change is that they swapped some territory between the 3rd and 7th to make the former slightly more Democratic and the latter slightly more Republican, which is hardly unprecedented or particularly unfair.

Its not like they're doing a Texas or Illinois-style map where they're closer to completely redrawing the districts for naked partisan gain.  Obey's just throwing an "I'm not longer important" fit.

[Torie]

Yes, my map was considerably more aggressive (and might I add creative), than this OK but rather pedestrian effort.  The 1st and 7th could have both rather easily been made a couple of PVI points more GOP.

[krazen1211]

Maps are being unveiled today and passed next week.

Edit: http://newsdesk.learfielddemos.com/files/2011/07/11-2266_1-leg-maps-and-tables.pdf

First thing noticed is they redid Kenosha and Racine County to put the 2 cities in 1 district.

[Gravis Marketing]

This is only leg, then?

[krazen1211]

This is only leg, then?

The Congressional map is as discussed earlier.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/125231319.html

For the legislature, the Assembly map is apparently better than the Senate one. The numbers help work it that way.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So they didn't bother to try anything with Kapaneke's seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Probably giving up on it and focusing on their remaining seats. They did other things to screw Democrats over. Two of the other recall candidates were drawn outside of their seats. I believe Holperin is also drawn out of his district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm also assuming the reason they didn't change the Senate map more radically is that the Assembly districts are nested within the Senate districts. It's harder to do a radical remap when you're affecting the other house of the legislature at the same time.

[Kevinstat]

Has Governor Walker signed the legislative and congressional redistricting bills yet?  I know he hadn't at the time he signed the bill authorizing the redistricting to be done earlier than it usually is done there (and thus before Tuesday's recall elections) but I haven't read of him signing either plan into law.  Could the Senate recall those bills from the Governor if he hasn't signed it by the first time they meet after Tuesday's recall, assuming the Democrats win a majority.

Also, does Wisconsin have a "people's veto" procedure?  I imagine not, as otherwise the Democrats would have focused on that re: the legislation on public collective bargaining rather than or in addition to the recall.

Bottom line, is the congressional and legislative redistricting in Wisconsin a done deal now, barring a lawsuit?  And how likely is such a lawsuit to be sucessful?

[krazen1211]

So they didn't bother to try anything with Kapaneke's seat.

Or indeed most of the seats outside the Milwaukee area, which was racked and packed.

Darling in particular, even if she loses the recall, likely will snooze back into the same seat in 2012. Big improvements were also made with the Kenosha/Racine seats.

[whaeffner1]

I can't even begin to tell you how lucky Gov. Walker and the GOP in Wisconsin is.  By surviving the recalls and maintaining complete control over Wisconsin government, they still control the entire redistricting process.  If the Dems were to pick up that extra seat, Sean Duffy would have been sweating, as would Paul Ryan.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Um... the redistricting process is over, Walker signed the bills this week.

[Gravis Marketing]

Sean Duffy is still sweating 2012 rather conspicuously in the news, even if Julie Lassaletta has been drawn out of his district.

[krazen1211]

2 districts in the Assembly map were thrown out in Milwaukee.

http://media.jsonline.com/documents/baldus-decision-032212.pdf


No partisan effect. Judges are treading very cautiously on rewriting legislative maps after Perry v Perez.



Indeed, to  avoid disrupting other lines, the court emphasizes that the re-drawing of the lines for Districts 8 and 9 must occur within the combined outer boundaries of those two districts.

[Gass3268]

There still is the issue of having too many people switching Senate districts, which will result in a large number of people not being able to vote for a state senator for a total 6 years. There was previous court case that ruled you have to keep that number as low as possible and previous maps had to be fixed. Don't know if they dealt with it in this case or if this just dealt with Hispanic areas in Milwaukee.

[krazen1211]

There still is the issue of having too many people switching Senate districts, which will result in a large number of people not being able to vote for a state senator for a total 6 years. There was previous court case that ruled you have to keep that number as low as possible and previous maps had to be fixed. Don't know if they dealt with it in this case or if this just dealt with Hispanic areas in Milwaukee.

Those claims were dismissed.

[jimrtex]

2 districts in the Assembly map were thrown out in Milwaukee.

http://media.jsonline.com/documents/baldus-decision-032212.pdf

No partisan effect. Judges are treading very cautiously on rewriting legislative maps after Perry v Perez.

Indeed, to  avoid disrupting other lines, the court emphasizes that the re-drawing of the lines for Districts 8 and 9 must occur within the combined outer boundaries of those two districts.

The court said HCVAP should have been used.

[muon2]

2 districts in the Assembly map were thrown out in Milwaukee.

http://media.jsonline.com/documents/baldus-decision-032212.pdf

No partisan effect. Judges are treading very cautiously on rewriting legislative maps after Perry v Perez.

Indeed, to  avoid disrupting other lines, the court emphasizes that the re-drawing of the lines for Districts 8 and 9 must occur within the combined outer boundaries of those two districts.

The court said HCVAP should have been used.

And by contrast the IL case in the same circuit did not use HCVAP. In the Congressional case the court pointed to the effectiveness of HVAP of 59.2% in IL-4 from 1991 and used that as a floor.

[Torie]

Just for kicks, I drew a Wisconsin map that follows the Michigan rules. I found it a most satisfying endeavor. Thank you.  No, the fat man won't be happy. That is part of its charm.




Here is a more subdued map.



And here is something a little more adventurous.

[Senator Napoleon]

Just for kicks, I drew a Wisconsin map that follows the Michigan rules. I found it a most satisfying endeavor. Thank you.  No, the fat man won't be happy. That is part of its charm.

Data please!

[muon2]

Just for kicks, I drew a Wisconsin map that follows the Michigan rules. I found it a most satisfying endeavor. Thank you.  No, the fat man won't be happy. That is part of its charm.




Here is a more subdued map.

It is interesting to compare this to IA rules on the other thread. Here were two versions posted there that both only had a single split of Milwaukee:





The IA rules don't really specify if there should be only single county splits, but the above maps have a deviation of -2794 for CD 1. That's quite large and if I go with a triple split of Milwaukee county and microchops into Milwaukee city I get the following plan with all districts within 400 of the ideal.