US House Redistricting: Wisconsin

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Below is a town map of the lay of the partisan land in the 2004 POTUS election. And yes, it will be a challenge to leash the Dems to two seats, leaving the balance comfortably GOP, or at least for all the GOP incumbents, with CD-03 maybe marginal to tilt GOP. But it can be done. What needs to be done, is to have the GOP heartland outside Milwaukee and farther north on the east side of the state, all join in to chop up the Dem areas outside the Dane and environs red zone per the map (inner city Milwaukee of course having its own CD).  I take your point about Dane. The whole county considers the GOP to be armed and dangerous and nutter, as it were.

That would take one hell of a nasty gerrymander. Even a plan that primaries Baldwin and Kind requires a sizable chunk of Dane County to be excluded, and you're still left with places like Eau Claire and Superior.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I doubt that Sensenbrenner would be happy with this map. In the whole counties of your proposed 5th District, Bush managed only 50.94%. In 2008, Obama earned 56.13% in those same counties. Granted, there is a large portion of heavily Republican Waukesha County not included in those figures, but the district still probably has a slight Democratic PVI, and Sensenbrenner is a very polarizing figure, and Kind lives in LaCrosse and will probably run in this district. Sensenbrenner would stand a better chance in your proposed 6th District, which you've left open (Petri lives in Fond du Lac).

EDIT: Actually, at second glace, it appears you have drawn Sensenbrenner into the proposed 6th. He lives in Menomonee Falls, in extreme northeastern Waukesha County. It seems logical that he would prefer the 6th to 5th.

EDIT #2: It's also worth pointing out that you've marginalized your proposed 3rd as well. In the whole counties in your proposed 3rd, Bush in 2004 received 52.20% of the vote, and Obama received 52.35% of the vote. Again, the split counties favor Republicans, and Petri should be able to hold the district, but it could be competitive if the seat becomes vacant. Petri will be 72 years old in 2012, and 80 in 2020, so a vacancy caused by retirement or death is very much possible.

In short, I think it would be far too risky for the GOP to try for a 6-2 map in Wisconsin. They would be better served to shore up their freshmen incumbents and maintain the 5-3 status quo.