How would you vote ...

[Franzl]

That I find interesting. Austrians support tuition fees?

[Tender Branson]

That I find interesting. Austrians support tuition fees?

Yes. There have always been huge margins in favor of tuition fees in past polls.

It's only students (and former students I guess) and Green voters and a small fringe in the SPÖ that supports it.

[danny]

I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.

[Zanas]

I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.

I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.

I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

Simple enough -- Israel lies in a powder-keg region with uncertain alliances. There are terror attacks in both directions.

Austria, on the other hand, ...

[danny]

I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.

I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

The two countries have very different circumstances. If Austria didn't have an army, nothing much would change. If Israel didn't have an army, they would quickly be invaded and destroyed.

[Zanas]

Did I say something about having or not an army ? That is totally irrelevant to what we're discussing, and I think you're doing this on purpose.

To get back on our topic, death penalty is not more justified in certain circumstances in certain countries. Either you support it, believe in it, and I don't see why you would let it be abolished in some cases, or you don't support it, and nothing justifies it.

I don't trust people with geometrically variable beliefs...

[Tender Branson]

I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.

I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

The two countries have very different circumstances. If Austria didn't have an army, nothing much would change. If Israel didn't have an army, they would quickly be invaded and destroyed.

Indeed. We could outsource our defense to Germany, so they can take care of us in case of war.

There is an old joke regarding this:

In a bar, the Austrian and German defense ministers are debating what to do in case of war between the 2 countries. Says the German defense minister: "What would you do if we attack you ?"

Answer from the Austrian defense minister: "We would summon every man between 18 and 60, fully arm them and throw everything against you what we have, even if we are less numerous than you are and fight until the last man !"

After this, the Austrian defense minister asks the same: "What would you do if we attack Germany ?"

German defense minister: "I don't really know. The police station in Bad Reichenhall is responsible for such a scenario."

[danny]

Did I say something about having or not an army ? That is totally irrelevant to what we're discussing, and I think you're doing this on purpose.

To get back on our topic, death penalty is not more justified in certain circumstances in certain countries. Either you support it, believe in it, and I don't see why you would let it be abolished in some cases, or you don't support it, and nothing justifies it.

In a utopian world There would be no armies at all, much less a draft. However, beliefs must fit in with reality, and in Israel's case it is necessary to have a large percent of its population go to the army in order to survive.

I don't trust people with geometrically variable beliefs...

I think a bigger problem is with people who don't let facts get in the way of their ideology.

[Tender Branson]

I agree with Danny that Israel is better off with a drafted army, considering the threats around it (even though I guess it wouldn't have much problems either to draft voluntary man/women to defend the country if it introduces a professional army).

On the other hand, I'm leaning more towards ending the draft here in Austria in Jan. once again.

[Tender Branson]

A few more draft-related polls out today:

Gallup for Ö24:

46% for the draft
46% against the draft

78% of those polled say they will vote in the January referendum.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0054/spoe-verliert-fpoe-gewinnt-in-neuer-gallup-oesterreich-umfrage

Karmasin for Profil:

How do you think Austrians will vote in January ?

49% - Austrians will vote to keep the draft
38% - Austrians will vote to abolish the draft

What do you think is the most important job for the Austrian Military ?

71% to help when there are natural catastrophes
14% to keep the border safe
10% to keep the country safe militarily

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0009/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-glaubt-dass-wehrpflicht-bleibt

[Tender Branson]

A new poll in Tirol shows that the state overwhelmingly favors keeping the draft:

53% keep the draft
35% against the draft
  6% Austria doesn't need an army at all
  6% undecided

Men back the draft by 55-33 and women by 51-37.

69% of FPÖ-voters as well as 59% of ÖVP and Dinkhauser voters support the draft.

A plurality of 49-43 of SPÖ voters also favor the draft.

Only Green voters oppose it 53-34.

In case the draft is abolished, Tyrolians want:

42% create a MANDATORY social year for both MEN and WOMEN
10% create a MANDATORY social year for MEN only
38% create a VOLUNTARY social year with good payment

45% of men and 41% of women want the MANDATORY social year for both MEN and WOMEN.

http://www.tt.com/Nachrichten/5446560-2/mehrheit-f%C3%BCr-die-wehrpflicht.csp

[Tender Branson]

A new Market poll shows a majority of 53% for the professional army.

The Market polls are really bouncing around a lot: Just a month ago, the draft led with over 60%, but in May the professional army was also ahead, just like now.

http://derstandard.at/1348283738343/90-Prozent-wollen-an-Wehrpflicht-Volksbefragung-teilnehmen

At least there's good news from the turnout front: The poll finds that 58% of those polled say that they will "definitely" vote on Jan. 20, while another 32% say they are "likely" to vote. Just 10% say they are unlikely to vote. Which means "real" turnout between 70-80% is possible (some of the "likely" voters will stay at home).

[Tender Branson]

New "Format" poll about what to do if the draft and mandatory civil service fails in the referendum:



  9% want a mandatory civil service for MEN only
49% want a mandatory civil service for MEN & WOMEN

40% want a voluntary civil service

  2% say that the civil service is not needed at all

Interesting also that 60% of women favor some kind of mandatory civil service, while only 56% of men say so. Even though more men than women also want women included in a mandatory civil service (52-46). More women on the other hand want a mandatory men-only civil service (14-4).

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

[Franzl]

Why are the fascists against slavery?

[Tender Branson]

Why are the fascists against slavery?

Because they are the Freedom Party of Austria ...

[Tender Branson]

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

Anyway, considering this, the result among the 75% who say they are likely to vote is:

46% professional army
44% draft

The number of undecideds here (10%) compared to the original question (24%) is pushed up by a HUGE undecided share among unlikely voters.

[Tender Branson]

Referendum remains tight:

51-49 for the draft now according to Gallup

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mehrheit-fuer-Wehr-Pflicht/80166330

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg Governor Gabriele Burgstaller from the Social Democrats has recently been attacked for saying "young men benefit from a few months in the military", with the news media running headlines like "Gov. Burgstaller from the SPÖ backs the draft".



The SPÖ party line is to abolish the draft. But yesterday she clarified her comments and said "she's still undecided about how to vote in the January referendum", but that "she clearly remains in favor of retaining the Civil Service".

I think she's secretly clearly in favor of the draft.

Burgstaller is more conservative than the average SPÖ folks and also supports tuition fees for universities, something that is contrary to the SPÖ-party line.  But maybe that's the reason why the SPÖ has around 40% in Salzburg state elections, compared to only 26-29% on the national level, because Burgstaller is also attracting many ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters. She is probably what would be described as a "Blue Dog Democrat" in the Southern US.

Also, Salzburg City mayor Heinz Schaden (also from the SPÖ) is backing the draft system.

And: The Salzburg state government (SPÖ-ÖVP) is the only government to send out a brochure that explains the positions on both issues (keeping or abolishing the draft), which is similar to what happens in Switzerland before each referendum.

http://derstandard.at/1348285168931/Bundesheer-Burgstaller-an-sachlicher-Debatte-interessiert

[Tender Branson]

Some are speculating that Burgstaller is already planning for the Presidential election in 2016 against the powerful Lower Austrian governor Erwin Pröll (ÖVP).

The Salzburg state election will be held in 2014 and if she wins for a 3rd time, after 2004 and 2009, she could give up her governor post in 2015 so that her deputy David Brenner takes over and plan for 2016.

David Brenner (also from the SPÖ) is currently quite popular and would become a very young governor (aged 44 in 2015), the youngest in all 9 states:

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?  or is wikipedia lying to me again?

[Franzl]

Salzburg Governor Gabriele Burgstaller from the Social Democrats has recently been attacked for saying "young men benefit from a few months in the military", with the news media running headlines like "Gov. Burgstaller from the SPÖ backs the draft".



The SPÖ party line is to abolish the draft. But yesterday she clarified her comments and said "she's still undecided about how to vote in the January referendum", but that "she clearly remains in favor of retaining the Civil Service".

I think she's secretly clearly in favor of the draft.

Burgstaller is more conservative than the average SPÖ folks and also supports tuition fees for universities, something that is contrary to the SPÖ-party line.  But maybe that's the reason why the SPÖ has around 40% in Salzburg state elections, compared to only 26-29% on the national level, because Burgstaller is also attracting many ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters. She is probably what would be described as a "Blue Dog Democrat" in the Southern US.

Also, Salzburg City mayor Heinz Schaden (also from the SPÖ) is backing the draft system.

And: The Salzburg state government (SPÖ-ÖVP) is the only government to send out a brochure that explains the positions on both issues (keeping or abolishing the draft), which is similar to what happens in Switzerland before each referendum.

http://derstandard.at/1348285168931/Bundesheer-Burgstaller-an-sachlicher-Debatte-interessiert

Sexism doesn't only work one way ...

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?

Yes, but that doesn't mean all their voters have to vote "No" on the draft ...

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:

52-48 for the draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition