How would you vote ...

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?

Yes, but that doesn't mean all their voters have to vote "No" on the draft ...

Yeah, I just expected there to be some correlation.

[Diouf]

Today the Danish government proposed to suspend the draft as a part of a 15 % cut in defense spending. But as I wrote earlier in the thread, the current agreement on defence, which runs until 2014, includes the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Danish People's Party. The two former agree with the scope of the cuts while the latter prefers cuts not to exceed 10-11 % but all three opposition parties agree to oppose a suspension of the draft. This means that the suspension won't happen. The Liberal Alliance supports suspending the draft while the Red-Green Alliance is opposed to it but neither party is a part of the defence agreement so currently their opinions mean little.

[Zanas]

Why on earth is the Red-Green Alliance in favor of the draft ? O_o

[RogueBeaver]

I'd vote against. Unless manpower is severely stretched without a draft, I prefer professional armed forces.

[Diouf]

Why on earth is the Red-Green Alliance in favor of the draft ? O_o

They think the army should only consists of draftees because the alternative, a professional army, is worse. Their spokesman on the subject said that "we have seen plenty of professional soldiers around the world with strange attitudes towards human rights and those they are fighting against". They believe that the draft secures a diverse composition of the military which enhances internal scrutiny and common sense.

[Zanas]

Well I'll be damned...

[danny]

Why on earth is the Red-Green Alliance in favor of the draft ? O_o

They think the army should only consists of draftees because the alternative, a professional army, is worse. Their spokesman on the subject said that "we have seen plenty of professional soldiers around the world with strange attitudes towards human rights and those they are fighting against". They believe that the draft secures a diverse composition of the military which enhances internal scrutiny and common sense.

I wonder if this can be seen as an endorsement of the Israeli army and its human rights attitudes since that is a draftee army;)

[Tender Branson]

Austrians are now lining up to support the draft in huge numbers (as I expected):

GALLUP/Ö24:

58% draft
42% professional army

Retired people and voters in the western states are most in favor of keeping the draft.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0047/oesterreich-erstmals-klare-mehrheit-fuer-wehrpflicht

Gallup has previously shown the referendum within 2%, so this is big news ...

[Tender Branson]

Gallup again shows the draft leading 58-42 this week:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/58-Prozent-sind-fuer-die-Wehrpflicht/83136292

Projected turnout: 77%

[Tender Branson]

New OGM/Kurier poll:



Professional army leads 46-44, but that's down from 46-40 in September.

Among the 70% which have already made up their mind, the draft leads 54-44 (up from 51-49 in September).

About 75% (+2) want to vote in the referendum, 18% not and 7% are undecided.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:



56.5% keeping the draft
43.5% professional army

Especially women (61-39) and old people (62-38) are in favor of keeping the draft.

Young voters below the age of 30 back the professional army with 54-46.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-SPOe-kriselt-Frank-lacht/84647217

[GMantis]

What is the maximum age up to which one is liable for conscription?

[Franzl]

What is the maximum age up to which one is liable for conscription?

German wikipedia says 35.

Which is rather high...was 25 here until abolition.

[Benj]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

[Tender Branson]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

[Franzl]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

That's great logic, of course.

[mubar]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

Well, this is basically my attitude also.

This last poll is actually quite surprising, because usually it seems to be the men who are more in favor of keeping the draft (or installing the draft in countries with none).

That's also so in Finland. For example the last year's poll (by Taloustutkimus)  found out that 82% of Finns support keeping the draft, while 16% would prefer abolishing it and replacing it with something else. Of men 84% were in favor and of women 80%. There was, though, a somewhat higher amount of younger people (18-34 years) who want to abolish the draft, but even in that age group 72% were in favor. It's doubtful that the opposition to draft would be significantly higher among young men than among general population in Austria either.

[Tender Branson]

People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

Well, this is basically my attitude also.

This last poll is actually quite surprising, because usually it seems to be the men who are more in favor of keeping the draft (or installing the draft in countries with none).

That's also so in Finland. For example the last year's poll (by Taloustutkimus)  found out that 82% of Finns support keeping the draft, while 16% would prefer abolishing it and replacing it with something else. Of men 84% were in favor and of women 80%. There was, though, a somewhat higher amount of younger people (18-34 years) who want to abolish the draft, but even in that age group 72% were in favor.

What's the reason for the high support of the draft ? Russia being nearby, or the fact that the system works just fine in Finland (does it) ?

It's doubtful that the opposition to draft would be significantly higher among young men than among general population in Austria either.

The official referendum exit poll will shed more light on this ...

[mubar]

What's the reason for the high support of the draft ? Russia being nearby, or the fact that the system works just fine in Finland (does it) ?

Probably the both, but geography is the biggest reason. It is simply seen as a necessity. If the draft were to be replaced with a voluntary army, people fear this would lead to smaller reserves, and this would be problematic for a country with such a small population inhabiting such a big land area and with a massive eastern neighbor. Switching to a fully professional army is even less attractive for Finns, since this is thought to mean nearer ties with Nato and to be a violation of the traditional policy of neutrality, in addition to being perceived as vaguely threatening Russia. But yes, the common opinion is that system works just fine as well... most young men appear to have no problem completing their military service and civil service is always an option, so there doesn't seem to be a need of change.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":

52% draft
47% professional army

What do you think the outcome of the referendum will be like ?

65% say people will vote to keep the draft
34% say people will vote to abolish the draft

Projected turnout:

51% will definitely vote
37% will likely vote
12% are unlikely to vote

http://derstandard.at/1350261636999/Keine-stabile-Mehrheit-fuer-Wehrpflicht

A new Spectra poll takes a slightly different approach:

90% of Austrians polled have heard/read that there will be a draft referendum in 2 months.

92% of men, 87% of women, 82% of younger voters and 92% each of middle-aged and old people have heard/read about it.

72% of the people polled are also aware that if the draft is rejected in the referendum, the mandatory civil service is also abolished. 28% didn't know it.

66% of the people polled also say that the possible end of the civil service will mean PROBLEMS for institutions like the Red Cross, hospitals, retirement homes etc. - while only 13% say there will be no problems.

Spectra then informed one half of the polling sample with detailed information about the 2 models from the SPÖ (wants to abolish the draft) and the ÖVP (wants to keep the draft) and then asked them how they'd vote, while NOT informing the other half of the sample and also asked how they'd vote:

INFORMED half of the sample:

32% for the draft model
29% for the professional army model
26% undecided
13% wouldn't vote in the referendum

UNINFORMED half of the sample:

45% for the draft model
19% for the professional army model
27% undecided
  9% wouldn't vote in the referendum

http://www1.spectra.at/cms/index.php?eID=tx_mm_bccmsbase_zip&id=42835660850a6a11670b04

I find it interesting that in both polls, about 87-90% of people say they are likely to vote in the referendum. I think the actual turnout will be much lower, because a big share of those who say they are "likely to vote" will probably stay at home. So, more like 70-75% turnout, which would also not be bad for a referendum.

Also, I find it interesting too that more people say they are staying at home when they are informed about the 2 models ... Shouldn't it be the opposite ?

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" poll:

52% will vote to keep the draft
37% will vote to abolish it

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121117_OTS0007/profil-umfrage-52-der-oesterreicher-fuer-wehrpflicht

[Tender Branson]

The draft is strongly favored in my home state of Salzburg, according to a new poll by IGF (even top SPÖ-politicians like the Salzburg City Mayor favor the draft):



63% draft
37% professional army

Projected January draft-referendum turnout in the State of Salzburg:



74% will vote
17% will not vote
  9% undecided

http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/redaktion/aktuelle_berichte/sf_umfrage_so_steht_es_im_land_spoe_38_oevp_37_fpoe_12_gruene_10_art1992/

[Tender Branson]

The BMI (Interior Ministry) has issued a 60-page guide about the organisation of the referendum.

Like in every other election here, every Austrian citizen aged 16+ will be automatically eligible to vote on Jan. 20.

The exact number of eligible voters will be known by December 19, when the Election Commission releases the numbers.

It also says that every eligible voter has to receive a election information card with their precinct on it, at least 3 days ahead of the referendum.

Voting on election day will open at 8am and close at 5pm.

There will be about 15.000 polling stations for about 6.350.000 eligible voters, so about 450 voters per polling station.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/volksbefragung/files/Leitfaden_Volksbefragung2013_Gesamt.pdf

[justfollowingtheelections]

First of all, wtf does Austria need an army for?

Second, an army of draftees would exhibit the same "strange" behaviors an army of civilians would exhibit.  The only way to avoid that is to hire only college graduates who pass rigorous psychological tests (the same is true for the police).

Third, would women still be in favor of the draft if they also had to spend 6 months of their life in the army?

[Franzl]

First of all, wtf does Austria need an army for?

Second, an army of draftees would exhibit the same "strange" behaviors an army of civilians would exhibit.  The only way to avoid that is to hire only college graduates who pass rigorous psychological tests (the same is true for the police).

Third, would women still be in favor of the draft if they also had to spend 6 months of their life in the army?

In reality, it's less about the army than that the Austrians want to keep their (almost) free slave labor in the "civil service".

We had the same debate here. I'm just glad we don't do referenda here, or we might still have conscription here...