Which states are lean, strong, tossups and do any party hold an advatage here?

[Gustaf]

I find it interesting to go through the 2000 stats to try and see which candidaite can count on the most EVs, etc.

If we start off with states that went for Gore or Bush by a margin of 20% or more (meaning that the national PV would have to be around 60-40 for one candidate for these states to be in play) we find the GOP with an advantage, 76-50. Only 4 states fall into this category for the Dems: NY, MA, RI and D.C.

For the Republicans it's TX, AK and all the plains/Rocky states.

Now, let's add those where the margin was 15% or more (a national vote would have to be aorund 57-43 for them to be in play). The Reps now gain IN, KY, SC and MS, the Dems gain NJ, MD, CT and HI. The Ev stand still favour the Reps, 109-86.

Now, let's bring in those who were 10% or more and are safe until we get a 55-45 margin for one candidate nationally. That gives us this map:



And the EV-stand now favours the Dems, 165-148.

I know this doesn't take a lot of specific factors into conssideration, it was just a thought to start off some discussion. Got ot go now myself though...

[CTguy]

And if it wasn't for the stupid electoral college that favors tiny rural states, that margin would be much wider.  With the exception of Texas, Republicans hardly win any big states.  It just goes to show that Republicans are out of touch with people in most population centers.

[dazzleman]

The electoral college at this point seems to favor Republicans because of the winner-take-all aspect of it.

It doesn't really matter whether you win the states by a lopsided margin, or a small margin, you receive the electoral votes.  The placement of Republican voters is more "efficient" in the sense that these voters are spread out among a number of states, while Democratic voters form larger majorities in a smaller number of states.

I think winning a lot of small states is just as good as winning a few big states, so I don't see an issue with it.  There's nothing inherently superior about bigger states versus smaller ones, in my opinion.  It's all in the total number of electoral votes.

The US has always had an anti-urban bias, and the electoral college reflects that.  It is meant to limit the power of population centers over more rural areas, and make sure that the interests of rural areas are represented.  Early Americans had a horror of teeming European cities, and that bias against crowded urban areas continues to this day.  Most people I know have it, although they may not be so honest as to admit it.

There is zero chance the electoral college will be changed in my opinion, because the process of amending the constitution also favors small states, which are given an equal voice in any amendment regardless of population.  So unless we take judicial overreaching to an even higher level than we've already seen, the electoral college is here to stay.

[zachman]

You're right Dazzleman, the EC will not be removed. 3 years ago it could have happened, but not anymore. Unless there is some 10% winner, who losses, it will not create an issue.

[dazzleman]

You're right Dazzleman, the EC will not be removed. 3 years ago it could have happened, but not anymore. Unless there is some 10% winner, who losses, it will not create an issue.

I think that if the electoral college were to repeated lead to victories by candidates who lost the popular vote, it would become an issue.  But even then, smaller states that support the candidate who won the electoral vote, but lost the popular vote, would be loathe to amend a process that favored their candidates, so I'm not sure even then that it would be changed, but there would be more pressure.

[CTguy]

I'll bet that in the next 3 election cycles  the democrats win the popular vote and republicans win the electoral college at least once.  The way politics is going, the electoral college inherently benefits republicans.  That will especially be the case when Florida becomes a democratic state and you will have 4 out of the 5 largest state going dem.

Just look at the way the ECs votes were redistributed based on 2000's census.  If that was used in 2000 Bush would have beat Gore 278-260 even though he lost the popular vote by over half a million votes.

[Ben.]

I find it interesting to go through the 2000 stats to try and see which candidaite can count on the most EVs, etc.

If we start off with states that went for Gore or Bush by a margin of 20% or more (meaning that the national PV would have to be around 60-40 for one candidate for these states to be in play) we find the GOP with an advantage, 76-50. Only 4 states fall into this category for the Dems: NY, MA, RI and D.C.

For the Republicans it's TX, AK and all the plains/Rocky states.

Now, let's add those where the margin was 15% or more (a national vote would have to be aorund 57-43 for them to be in play). The Reps now gain IN, KY, SC and MS, the Dems gain NJ, MD, CT and HI. The Ev stand still favour the Reps, 109-86.

Now, let's bring in those who were 10% or more and are safe until we get a 55-45 margin for one candidate nationally. That gives us this map:



And the EV-stand now favours the Dems, 165-148.

I know this doesn't take a lot of specific factors into conssideration, it was just a thought to start off some discussion. Got ot go now myself though...

I reckon your about right Gustaf…I might argue that CO should be put firmly in the GOP column and WA and VT should probably be solidly in the Dem column but apart from that I’d say your spot on…

I posted this break down of what I’d call the competitive states…so here it is again…anyone one got any thoughts on it?

 
States which voted for Bush in 2000 and are now tossups but where Kerry would seem to have the edge….

New Hampshire
Ohio


Tossup States where no candidate has a clear advantage….

West Virginia
Nevada
Minnesota
Florida


States which voted for Gore in 2000 but this time round could be called tossups where Bush has the advantage this time round…

Iowa
New Mexico


States which went for Bush in 2000 where Kerry has an outside chance of winning this November…

Missouri
Arkansas
Arizona
Virginia
Louisiana (maybe and I use the word maybe here for a reason)


States which voted for Gore last time around where Bush has an outside chance in November….

Pennsylvania
Maine
Wisconsin
Oregon    


That’s how I see the so called “battle ground states” breaking down in this election ultimately it comes down to eight states and probably a few hundred thousand votes…rather like last time round…

[StevenNick]

And if it wasn't for the stupid electoral college that favors tiny rural states, that margin would be much wider.  With the exception of Texas, Republicans hardly win any big states.  It just goes to show that Republicans are out of touch with people in most population centers.

Last time I checked, Republicans held the governorships in the four largest states in the nation.  In California Schwarzenegger is the governor.  In Texas, Perry is in charge.  In New York, Pataki is in his THIRD term.  In Florida, Jeb is riding high following his reelection by a landslide.

In 2000 republicans carried Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia, none of which are insignificant as far as the electoral college is concerned.  In 2004, I think we'll win Michigan, Pennsylvania,  and perhaps even California.

Republicans are not out of touch with people in most population centers.

And as far as your charge that the electoral college is "stupid", I can't even begin to express how "stupid" that sentiment is (but I'll try anyway).  What is the official name of this country?  The United STATES of America.  We are not now, and never were, one blanket, one-size-fits-all populace.  We are a country made up of fifty seperate entities who come together for the purpose of the common defense and a few other national needs.  When it comes time to elect a president, we do not hold a national election.  We have fifty separate state-wide elections.  To discard that system would be to destroy the very thing that makes this country different from other democracies.  We have already slid too far down the slope of taking away the rights of states.  We shouldn't slide down that slippery slope any more.

Before you call one of the most significant elements of our democratic republic "stupid," maybe you should think about why it is the way it is to begin with.  The fact that you don't shows that you don't have the foggiest idea what this country is.

[StevenNick]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

[zachman]

The popular vote is a final national poll. It shows exactly how much support each candidate had, and includes third parties. Yes, it is completely worthless, but it combines regional data to show the complete vote total.

[Gustaf]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

[StevenNick]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

There's no such thing as democracy.  Nowhere.  Never.

[Gustaf]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

There's no such thing as democracy.  Nowhere.  Never.

No of course not, the US is the world, right?

[CTguy]

And if it wasn't for the stupid electoral college that favors tiny rural states, that margin would be much wider.  With the exception of Texas, Republicans hardly win any big states.  It just goes to show that Republicans are out of touch with people in most population centers.

Last time I checked, Republicans held the governorships in the four largest states in the nation.  In California Schwarzenegger is the governor.  In Texas, Perry is in charge.  In New York, Pataki is in his THIRD term.  In Florida, Jeb is riding high following his reelection by a landslide.

In 2000 republicans carried Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia, none of which are insignificant as far as the electoral college is concerned.  In 2004, I think we'll win Michigan, Pennsylvania,  and perhaps even California.

Republicans are not out of touch with people in most population centers.

And as far as your charge that the electoral college is "stupid", I can't even begin to express how "stupid" that sentiment is (but I'll try anyway).  What is the official name of this country?  The United STATES of America.  We are not now, and never were, one blanket, one-size-fits-all populace.  We are a country made up of fifty seperate entities who come together for the purpose of the common defense and a few other national needs.  When it comes time to elect a president, we do not hold a national election.  We have fifty separate state-wide elections.  To discard that system would be to destroy the very thing that makes this country different from other democracies.  We have already slid too far down the slope of taking away the rights of states.  We shouldn't slide down that slippery slope any more.

Before you call one of the most significant elements of our democratic republic "stupid," maybe you should think about why it is the way it is to begin with.  The fact that you don't shows that you don't have the foggiest idea what this country is.

Rather than reading the gist of my post, you choose to respond in a pedantic and trivial way by pinpointing one word out of context.  Bravo.

[opebo]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

Well.. you know how I feel about it..

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll bet that in the next 3 election cycles  the democrats win the popular vote and republicans win the electoral college at least once.  The way politics is going, the electoral college inherently benefits republicans.  That will especially be the case when Florida becomes a democratic state and you will have 4 out of the 5 largest state going dem.

Just look at the way the ECs votes were redistributed based on 2000's census.  If that was used in 2000 Bush would have beat Gore 278-260 even though he lost the popular vote by over half a million votes.

I support abolishing the EC, but there is no way the Republicans can win if they lose Florida.

A lot of political scientists are saying Bush could be the last Republican president ever. The Cubans in Florida are mellowing down and trending more and more Democratic. If they fall in line with the rest of Hispanics Democrats will own the state although it'll take awhile to take the state government thanks to the horrible gerrymandering of the Republicans. And as more and more Hispanics migrate to Texas, even that could fall out of the GOP's column, we're talking long term though, like 15 years. Virginia is also on its way to becoming a swing state. Suburbs are becoming more and more Dem and soon whites won't be a majority in this country anymore. Hello permanent minority status for the GOP.

[angus]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

Well.. you know how I feel about it..

Is that you, P. J.?  Well with PJ, you get the feeling at least that he may be joking.

[Gustaf]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

Well.. you know how I feel about it..

Yes, unfortunately.

[Gustaf]

A 5% map would look liek this, and is probably much closer to the truth....

[opebo]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

Well.. you know how I feel about it..

Is that you, P. J.?  Well with PJ, you get the feeling at least that he may be joking.

You mean P.J. O'Rourke?

[Gustaf]

A 5% map would look liek this, and is probably much closer to the truth....

I agree.

Of course it's not perfect. One might want to remove TN, being Gore's home state, and also add a few like Michigan and West Virginia. But to give a general idea, I think it's pretty good.

[opebo]

I'll bet that in the next 3 election cycles  the democrats win the popular vote and republicans win the electoral college at least once.  The way politics is going, the electoral college inherently benefits republicans.  That will especially be the case when Florida becomes a democratic state and you will have 4 out of the 5 largest state going dem.

Just look at the way the ECs votes were redistributed based on 2000's census.  If that was used in 2000 Bush would have beat Gore 278-260 even though he lost the popular vote by over half a million votes.

I support abolishing the EC, but there is no way the Republicans can win if they lose Florida.

A lot of political scientists are saying Bush could be the last Republican president ever. The Cubans in Florida are mellowing down and trending more and more Democratic. If they fall in line with the rest of Hispanics Democrats will own the state although it'll take awhile to take the state government thanks to the horrible gerrymandering of the Republicans. And as more and more Hispanics migrate to Texas, even that could fall out of the GOP's column, we're talking long term though, like 15 years. Virginia is also on its way to becoming a swing state. Suburbs are becoming more and more Dem and soon whites won't be a majority in this country anymore. Hello permanent minority status for the GOP.

Talk about wishful thinking.

[angus]

I don't understand why anybody even cares about the popular vote.  The popular vote does not matter.  The popular vote is completely worthless.

Yeah, that stupid thing called democracy is compltely worthless...

Well.. you know how I feel about it..

Is that you, P. J.?  Well with PJ, you get the feeling at least that he may be joking.

You mean P.J. O'Rourke?

yep.  as in:

"When buying and selling are
controlled by legislation,
the first things to be bought
and sold are legislators."

that sort of thing.  But I can't remember where I was going with that, though.  A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

[muon2]

A 5% map would look liek this, and is probably much closer to the truth....

I agree.

And it catches the Rs up to the Ds in base EV.

[Gustaf]

A 5% map would look liek this, and is probably much closer to the truth....

I agree.

And it catches the Rs up to the Ds in base EV.

Exactly...I hoped someone would notice...200 each, a round number and everything...now if God could just make PI squared=10 the world would be perfect...