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Vosem
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« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2011, 08:10:38 pm »
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BUMP!


There'll be an update soon; foreign affairs go slower than domestic ones, but it must be done in the build-up to the Warsaw War (1987-1989). Get ready for a non-nuclear Third World War with the U.S., U.S.S.R., and China all on one side.
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« Reply #26 on: July 22, 2011, 09:22:08 pm »
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Awesome.
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« Reply #27 on: July 23, 2011, 02:20:24 pm »
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My mouth is already salivating.
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« Reply #28 on: October 16, 2011, 08:31:51 pm »
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OK, I'm tired of not updating this timeline, so I'm just going to write a brief, informal update on what's been going on in the outside world.

In Canada, Trudeau lost the election of 1974 to Stanfield. He handed leadership over to Claude Wagner in 1976, who lost an election to John Turner in 1977. In spite of the Progressive Conservatives, now under Joe Clark, becoming the largest party in the election of 1981, Turner formed a minority government with New Democratic support.

In the U.K., Heath was reelected in 1974, but defeated overwhelmingly in 1979 by James Callaghan's Labour Party. Callaghan was assassinated in 1981 during a visit to Northern Ireland (which hasn't been doing very well ITTL), and was replaced by Tony Benn, causing a large chunk of the party to secede, under the leadership of Denis Healey. The Conservatives were thrown into disarray after Heath's defeat, ultimately choosing Geoffrey Howe as their leader in 1980 after Heath stubbornly refused to resign. As no party could come close to commanding the confidence of the chamber, an election was held in 1981. Argentina's attack on the Falklands came earlier ITTL, and Benn attacked and reconquered them, resulting in a surge of popularity. On Election Day, Labour came in undisputably first, but failed to reach a majority. Jeremy Thorpe (who has avoided his scandal)'s Liberals sided with a Conservative-SDP alliance; although the Conservatives were the largest party in the alliance, ultimately Healey became Prime Minister. All three men had criticized Benn over the Falklands, and they were peacefully signed over to Argentina in July 1982.

I must admit a general lack of knowledge in France, so I'm just going to say Francois Mitterand defeated Valery Giscard d'Estaing by a very narrow margin in 1974, and became unpopular. A splintered right allowed the Socialists to maintain power in Parliament throughout the decade, but Jacques Chirac (who narrowly came in second over Georges Marchais, who came in third, and VGd'E, who came in fourth) defeated Mitterand in the runoff in 1981.

Iberia, on the other hand, has done poorly. Both countries have come under the control of Marxist parties allied to the U.S.S.R.; in Portugal, under Alvaro Cunhal, and in Spain, under Enrique Lister. War nearly broke out over the micronation of Andorra after the revolutionary government abolished the Bishopric of Urgell and imprisoned Joan Marti i Alanis (the French army occupied Llivia), but ultimately Llivia was handed back to the Spanish and a referendum held in Andorra; Sant Julia de Loria and la Massana joined communist Spain, whereas the rest of the country joined France). Notably, elements of the French Communist Party actively campaigned in favor of Andorra being attached to Spain.

After Solidarity held a strike in 1980, the Soviet Union intervened in Poland and crushed it. No Fall of Communism is going to be starting in Poland anytime soon.

The crisis between Greece and Turkey in 1974 became...interesting. Not in a good way. Brezhnev and Hoxha both decided they had something to do with it. The result was Greek annexation of 'East Thrace', 'Ionia', and 'Northern Epirus'. Turkey became a Soviet client state, as did Albania, now under Mehmet Shehu. Turns out Hoxha was right about him. (In real life, Hoxha accused Shehu at his show trial of being a spy for the Soviets, British, Americans, and Yugoslavs all simultaneously.) Brezhnev decided he liked pointless annexations just the same as pointless medals, and made Istanbul and surroundings a 17th Republic. The military regime in Greece ultimately became too scary for even the Soviets to support, and a quiet coup in 1978 but in a more orthodox dictatorship.

Afghanistan has also gone Communist, but it's a nicer place than real life. The Soviets have not decided Hafizullah Amin (the one popular Communist, and truly loyal to the USSR) was a secret CIA agent (whoever thought that was smoking the same stuff as Enver Hoxha).

Iran's overthrow of their Shah was botched, and the USSR invaded and turned the country into a puppet state. Again, Brezhnev loves his annexations-which-can-only-make-the-international-community-hate-you, adding the OTL provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and Ardabil to the Azerbaijani Republic; Golestan to the Turkmen Republic; and forming the Persian Soviet Socialist Republic (#18) out of Gilan and Mazandaran. Notably, in an attempt to de-Pahlavize the remainder of the country, the Soviets renamed Iran to Persia. Saddam Hussein also made good of all the chaos, successfully snapping up Khuzestan. Hussein continues to maintain an antagonistic relationship with Persia - except ITTL this is a Soviet puppet, and this translates to maintaining an antagonistic relationship with the USSR, and therefore a good one with the US. Controversially, Vice President Richard Schweiker visited Iraq in 1983, just as he was taking over Kuwait; Hussein even went so far as to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1982.

Hussein has also maintained an antagonistic relationship with Saudi Arabia; war has nearly broken out several times. An even more poisonous environment than OTL has led to Qatar and Bahrain joining the UAE, which has become a more 'seven equal Emirs' than 'Abu Dhabi rules!' type place.

The USSR's puppetizing of Turkey greatly antagonized Libyan leader Muammar al-Gadhafi, who formed an alliance with Israel during the War of 1981, in which Israel and Libya fought against an alliance of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. (Actually, Gadhafi fought only against Egypt, but that's a distinction frequently overlooked by Arab nationalists). Egypt came under Libyan occupation after the Israeli army controversially handed over the bit they had occupied to Gadhafi. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (the right has yet to gain power ITTL) formed the Holy League Association (HLA), an alliance between Israel (having unilaterally annexed most of the West Bank, all of Jerusalem, and all of Sinai), Gaza (Monaco-style; surrounded by Israel but having an avenue to the sea), Jordan (which, funnily enough, gained land from the war they lost; Rabin handed over some of the eastern West Bank because the Intifada was getting annoying), and also Syria and Lebanon.

Interesting news in other parts of the world. After puppetizing Egypt, Gadhafi successfully turned his attention to Sudan and Chad. Meanwhile, Mauritania has kept their third of Western Sahara rather than giving it over to Morocco. Mozambique and Angola have become Communist; East Timor, too, has maintained commie-independence because Suharto was busy with an attempted revolt on West Papua, or something.

The Soviet Union has accepted most of these new converts into the Warsaw Pact, which has become more powerful, having the ability, by 2/3 vote, to do basically anything in a member state. Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Albania, Iran, Angola, Mozambique, East Timor, Cuba, and Chile (more on that later) have all been admitted into the Pact. In southern Africa, the regimes in Rhodesia and South Africa survive. South Africa's 'bantustan' idea has been more successful ITTL; Swaziland's gotten it's access to the sea, and the CIA has successfully guided Transkei and Ciskei (also Gaza/Monaco style) from being puppets of the South Africa to puppets of the United States, and the juicy U.N. membership that comes with it. Venda and Bophuthatswana remain part of the country.

ITTL in Australia, Whitlam was never dismissed, and successfully won reelection in 1977 and 1980. In 1983 the Liberal/National coalition regained power under John Howard.

Pinochet died after his plane crashed in the Andes mountains and the other passengers ate him. Salvador Allende has led the country into the Warsaw Pact (Cuba joined too), resulting in a more widespread, more violent, and more secretive Operation Condor (records released by President ------ in 2003 would reveal even President Kennedy was unaware of much of what was going on). For example, the Somozas are still in power in Nicaragua.

Mao Yuanxin has taken power in China and some really dark stuff is happening there that I totally did not steal from Drew's excellent timeline Fear, Loathing, and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72, posted on alternatehistory.com's After 1900 section, or anything.

Almighty God remains in power in Ethiopia, and the Ogaden War resulted in a (bizarrely enough) Ethiopian puppet state being put in place in Mogadishu.

To the south, Mobutu has received...a lot of aid from the United States. Some of it has gone to helping the people, but most of it has gone to (what else?) conquering Soviet-sympathetic governments that have sprung up around him, in the CAR and in the Republic of the Congo. Although Mobutu intervened in the Angolan Civil War, he failed to stop dos Santos from coming to power, but did come away with the provinces of Cabinda and Zaire.

That was a lot less brief than I had planned...regular updates on American politics coming in the next bit. (Speaking of America, I forgot to note that ITTL the Pacific Trust Territories formally became territories of the United States; and no Panama-Canal-giving-over happened ITTL either). If you have any questions about what's happening anywhere in the world, please don't hesitate to ask.
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2011, 02:17:24 pm »
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Hurray! WW is back! Smiley
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« Reply #30 on: November 13, 2011, 02:06:47 pm »
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The Second Term of Ronald Reagan

Vice President: Richard Schweiker
Secretary of State: George Shultz
Secretary of the Treasury: James Baker
Secretary of Defense: Caspar Weinberger
Attorney General: Edwin Meese
Secretary of the Interior: Donald Hodel
Secretary of Agriculture: John R. Block
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Baldrige, Jr.
Secretary of Labor: Ann Dore McLaughlin
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Otis Bowen
Secretary of Education: William Bennett
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Samuel Pierce, Jr.
Secretary of Transportation: Elizabeth Hanford Dole
Secretary of Energy: John Herrington
Chief of Staff: Howard Baker
National Security Advisor: Henry Kissinger

Reagan began his second term with a new Cabinet, firing nearly all first-term Cabinet members, and those that were not fired were shifted to new positions. Although Reagan appointed non-politicians to his Cabinet for the most part, the appointment of Howard Baker as Chief of Staff shifted the Senate balance of power in Reagan's favor, as Senator Bill Brock, a close Reagan ally who had been defeated in 1982, was appointed to the seat after Baker's resignation, losing no seniority and getting a 'second chance' at his political career. Also, Senator Baker's resignation required Republicans to pick a new Senate leader; close Reagan ally Senator Paul Laxalt, of Nevada, was the obvious choice and was chosen as the new Senate Majority Leader. (Democratic Senate leader Walter Mondale became Minority Leader).

The elections of 1982 also reverberated in the House of Representatives, as former Speaker John Rhodes, of Arizona, regained his position, and Democratic leader Tip O'Neill declined to continue as Democratic House leader, instead resigning and retiring to Massachusetts. John McFall of California was chosen as the new Democratic leader in the House, and therefore Minority Leader.

Little legislation of note passed during the first half of Reagan's Senate term. One bill which provoked controversy was the Social Security Amendment of 1983, which proposed an increase in payroll taxes to pay for Social Security. It was opposed by some conservative members of the Republican Party, but opposition cooled after Senate Majority Leader Paul Laxalt came out in favor. The bill passed with over 2/3 of the vote and was signed into law by President Reagan. Legislation to make voting easier for disabled Americans was also passed in mid-1984; the bill, sponsored by Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, enjoyed bipartisan support.

Foreign affairs provoked more controversy. The 1979-1981 war in Iran, which had seen Soviet intervention and resulted in a communist government, lead the Reagan administration to try to foster a closer relationship with Saddam Hussein's dictatorship in Iraq, which vehemently opposed the communist Iranian regime. Covert aid had been given to Iraq during the war, to aid in its takeover of Khuzestan (which Hussein referred to as 'Arabistan') and Kuwait, but many considered Vice President Richard Schweiker's visit to the country and meeting with Hussein in March of 1983 a step too far; the senior Senator from California, Alan Cranston, controversially proposed to break off diplomatic relations with Hussein's regime, a proposal supported by prominent leftists including former Senator and 1972 nominee George McGovern and former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill.

The Administration tried to paint Hussein as a pro-American liberalizer, making much of his peace treaty with Israel in 1982, but this argument was undercut when, in late 1984, Hussein enacted numerous repressive laws against the Shi'ite majority and Kurd minority. Rioters in Baghdad were fired upon on December 19, 1983, and 56 protesters, of whom 42 were Shi'ite, were killed.

Other Reaganite foreign policy came under attack, including the sponsoring of a military coup in Grenada and support for the Somoza regime in Nicaragua. Reagan's allies in Congress attempted, in July of 1984, to form the so-called 'Ballistic Missile Defense Initiative', an elaborate anti-ballistic missile system which hoped to become an alternative to the previously-relied upon principle of mutually assured destruction (ie, hoping that ballistic missiles would not be fired by pointing, but not firing, your own ballistic missiles at the enemy). Although the plan made it through Congress, public approval for it was low, and it was widely derided as 'Star Wars' by the Senate left.

Additional controversy accompanied the death of Senator Frank Church, of Idaho, in mid-1983. Church, a liberal icon, was replaced in the Senate by Republican Representative Steve Symms, a prominent conservative (increasing the Republican majority to 54-46), leading Senate Democrats to attempt to introduce a constitutional amendment which would require special Senate elections to occur in lieu of gubernatorial appointments. The amendment ultimately passed the Senate by a margin of 56-44, far below the 2/3 (or 67 votes) necessary for approval.

Congressional Elections



The congressional elections of 1984 were not kind to the Reagan administration, as the principle of the 'six-year itch' again reared its head. Democrats picked up 7 Senate seats, to no Republican pickups, regaining the Senate majority 53-47.

Even more embarrassingly, six of those pickups were defeats of incumbents. The one exception was West Virginia, where Senator Arch Moore chose to forego a run for reelection and instead run for Governor of West Virginia; he was replaced by Democratic incumbent Governor Jay Rockefeller.

The remaining six Democratic pickups were defeats. In Alabama, U.S. Representative Richard Shelby defeated incumbent Senator James Martin; in Illinois, U.S. Representative Paul Simon defeated incumbent Senator Charles Percy; in Iowa, U.S. Representative Tom Harkin defeated incumbent Senator Roger Jepsen; in Massachusetts, state Lieutenant Governor John Kerry defeated incumbent Senator Edward Brooke, leaving the Senate devoid of African-Americans; in New Jersey, prominent businessman Frank Lautenberg defeated conservative icon Senator Jeffrey Bell; and in North Carolina, Governor Jim Hunt defeated other conservative icon Senator Jesse Helms.

Counting Moore, there were only three retirements, a remarkable low. In Minnesota, Senator Walter Mondale chose to forego reelection to focus on a planned run for the Presidency in 1986; he was replaced by Minnesota Secretary of State Joan Growe. In Texas, John Tower was replaced by fellow Republican U.S. Representative Phil Gramm.

In other prominent races, Senators Symms in Idaho and Brock in Tennessee were both easily reelected, in spite of Democratic opposition to their appointments Symms was reelected together with his Republican colleague, James McClure. In Kentucky, businessman Mitch McConnell nearly upset incumbent Democrat Walter Huddleston in the closest Republicans came to a pickup; in Michigan, Robert Griffin won a narrow, unexpected victory and in Nebraska, aged Senator Carl Curtis was reelected yet again.

The outlook in the House was similarly poor for Republicans. Democrats picked up a net of 30 seats on their way to a 239-196 majority, and McFall became Speaker. As Rhodes had retired, Illinois Representative Bob Michel became House Minority Leader.

In the Senate, Laxalt was demoted to Minority Leader. The frontrunner for the Democratic leadership was the senior Senator from West Virginia, Robert Byrd, but he was opposed by some liberals for his historical pro-segregation views, and some tried to convince William Proxmire of Wisconsin or Alan Cranston of California to run, but both declined, and Byrd became Majority Leader.

Gubernatorial Elections



The gubernatorial elections were better for Republicans than congressional ones. Republicans picked up 4 Governor's Mansions to 2 Democratic Pickups.

In Arkansas, Democratic former U.S. Representative Jim Guy Tucker returned to defeat Republican Governor Frank White after former Governor Bill Clinton decided to leave politics for another profession; in Delaware, Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Castle replaced term-limited Republican Governor Pierre du Pont; in Indiana, Republican Robert Orr was easily elected to a second term; in Missouri, state Attorney General John Ashcroft defeated incumbent Democratic Governor Joseph Teasdale; in Montana and New Hampshire, respectively, Democratic and Republican Governors, respectively, Schwinden and Thomson were reelected; in North Carolina, Republican U.S. Representative James Martin was elected Governor after incumbent Democrat Jim Hunt ran for the Senate; in North Dakota, Democrat George Sinner replaced Democrat Arthur Link; in Rhode Island, Republican Edward di Prete was elected Governor to replace Democrat John Garrahy; in Utah, Republican Norman Bangerter replaced Republican Vernon Romney; in Vermont, Democratic state Lieutenant Governor Madeleine Kunin replaced incumbent Republican Richard Snelling, who chose not to seek reelection to focus on a hypothetical run for President in 1986; in Washington, Democratic Governor Jim McDermott was reelected; and in West Virginia, Republican Senator (and former Governor) Arch Moore returned to the Governor's Mansion, replacing Democratic Governor Jay Rockefeller, who, ironically, received Moore's Senate office.
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« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2011, 10:59:46 am »
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I like that this is back.
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« Reply #32 on: November 19, 2011, 04:04:10 pm »
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A quick note; the next update will cover the end of the Reagan Administration and the 1986 presidential primaries. The 1986 general election, as the first actually close election this timeline has yet had, will be covered in a Yates-style election night format, as will the Senate and gubernatorial elections. I hope this means that updates will be coming with much more regularity.
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« Reply #33 on: December 20, 2011, 01:02:06 pm »
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The Second Term of Ronald Reagan (cont.)

One of the very first bills passed by the new Democratic Congress was the Gramm-Hollings Balanced Budget Act of 1985. The deficit, which had been slowly increasing ever since the Johnson Presidency, had by then reached the largest level in human history, something which Senator Phil Gramm (R-Texas) was quick to point out.

The various spending caps of the GHBBA failed to create a balanced budget in FY86, but did successfully dent the deficit; although the bill was actually co-written by Senator Ernest Hollings (D-South Carolina), Gramm received most of the credit, setting himself up for his eventual run for the presidency.

A more liberal endeavour Congress embarked upon in 1985 was COBRA (the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act), which charged all employers with more than 20 full-time employees an excise tax if their group health plan did not meet certain requirements.

Later that year, the Firearm Owners Protection Act was passed, loosening the restrictions of the Gun Control Act of 1968.  

The first major bill passed in 1986 was the bipartisan Department of Defense Reorganization Act, championed in the Senate by former presidential candidate Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona); it passed the Senate universally. The bill increased the powers of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the expense of various bureaucrats in the Department of Defense, and clearly outlined the entire chain of command from top to bottom, starting with the President and finishing with combatant commanders.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act, also passed in 1986, made it illegal for anyone to hire illegal immigrants, but also controversially gave amnesty to all immigrants who had been in the United States before 1982.

The Tax Reform Act of 1986, sponsored by U.S. Representatives Bill Bradley (D-New Jersey) and Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri), greatly simplified the income tax code; although sponsored by two Democrats, the revenue neutral Act received great support from conservatives and was easily ferried through both Houses of Congress.

Republican Primaries

The original two favorites in the Republican primaries of 1986 were Senator Paul Laxalt, of Nevada, representing the conservatives (who held a lead in Iowa), and Vice President Richard Schweiker, of Pennsylvania, who held a lead in New Hampshire.

Several less prominent candidates were also in the running. The term-limited Governor of Wisconsin, Bob Kasten, announced a run for the Presidency, as did long-time Governor of New Hampshire (and 1974 vice-presidential nominee) Meldrim Thomson; Senator Bob Dole, of Kansas; along with the former Governor of Delaware, Pete du Pont, and prominent televangelist Pat Robertson.

As the other candidates came to be better-known, both Laxalt and Schweiker came to sink in polling. Iowa became a three-way tie between Laxalt, Dole, and Kasten; while Schweiker and Thomson competed for New Hampshire, with du Pont not far behind. Robertson, although he polled in the double-digits in Iowa, largely failed to catch on and dropped out in September.

With no clear frontrunner, many prominent party figures came to worry about the possibility of no candidate present at the convention; also, most of the Democrats running led most of the Republicans running in polling. Enter George Bush.

Bush had held a variety of prominent government positions, including a spot in the House of Representatives; Ambassador to the United Nations; and Chairman of the Republican National Committee; during the Reagan presidency, Bush had at first served as Director of the C.I.A., but was then promoted to Deputy Secretary of State; and served as Acting Secretary of State during Schweiker's visit to Iraq in 1983 before George Shultz was nominated, and was credited by various administration figures for advising against it.

Bush made a positive impression on many voters, and quickly shot to the top of nationwide polls, although he remained behind the pack in both Iowa and New Hampshire, where the established candidates had already formed bases of support.

Thus, when New Year's Day 1986 rolled around, the identity of the Republican nominee was not just far from clear but downright opaque. The night before the Iowa caucus, prominent political analyst William Clinton predicted a Dole victory, followed by Bush, then Kasten, and then Laxalt.

Finally, with less than 25% of the vote, the Governor of Wisconsin, Bob Kasten, carried Iowa. George Bush came in second; Bob Dole third; Richard Schweiker fourth; Meldrim Thomson fifth; Paul Laxalt sixth; and Pete du Pont seventh. An astounding total of six candidates won double-digits.

Reverberations of the Iowa vote occurred immediately, as Laxalt and Dole, who had both staked their chances on the state, dropped out, with Laxalt announcing that he was permanently leaving politics.

New Hampshire was also unclear before the final vote. New Hampshire ultimately selected favorite son Meldrim Thomson, followed by George Bush; then Richard Schweiker; then Bob Kasten; and then Pete du Pont in last place. Schweiker and du Pont both dropped out.

Three candidates were left Governor Meldrim Thomson of New Hampshire; Governor Bob Kasten of Wisconsin; and State Department official George Bush of Texas.

Thomson's victory in New Hampshire brought him more attention than the media had afforded him previously, as conservatives and evangelicals surveyed his record and liked what they saw. Two days after New Hampshire, Thomson was endorsed by former candidate Pat Robertson; it appeared clear that he had the momentum, though many prominent Republicans worried about his electability.

The next contest, in Michigan, was easily won by Bob Kasten, who was after all from the neighboring state of Wisconsin; Thomson came in second place, Bush third.

In Hawaii, Bush won his first victory; Thomson came in second and Kasten third. In the next contest, Kansas, the candidates all tried to obtain Senator Dole's endorsement, which many thought could prove decisive; however, Dole refused to endorse and the state ultimately went to Thomson, with Bush and Kasten almost exactly tied for second place, Kasten edging out Bush by less than 100 votes.

In the next contest, Nevada, Bush won again; on March 1st, Minnesota and South Dakota voted; Minnesota supporting Kasten and South Dakota Thomson. The next day, Wyoming also backed Thomson; and a week after that, Maine, which polling showed a safe Bush state, unexpectedly backed Thomson.

Bush dropped out after losing Maine, supporting Kasten, who by this time had built up a fairly heavy delegate lead over Thomson; Kasten was also supported by most 'establishment' Republicans, who saw him as a more electable and charismatic candidate than Thomson. Nevertheless, the next three primaries Alaska, Vermont, and South Carolina, in that order were all won by Thomson. Although Kasten maintained his delegate lead, Thomson had the momentum and was seen by some as the inevitable nominee.

Both candidates came to focus on the 'Super Tuesday' contests of March 15th, in which seventeen, largely Southern states all voted simultaneously. A victory on Super Tuesday, for either candidate could break the balance. Although Thomson held many polling leads, momentum shifted to Kasten, who was better-funded and seen as more electable; a series of gaffes by Thomson at a debate on March 12th also did the candidate no favors.

Kasten won decisively. He won 10 states to Thomson's 7, breaking into the South and largely carrying the more populous states. Kasten carried Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Washington; to Thomson's Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma; essentially limiting Thomson to the South.

Although Kasten had effectively won the nomination, Thomson remained in the race, not dropping out until the convention, even scoring a single victory in Idaho, while Kasten became presumptive nominee. At the convention, Thomson, not all that enthusiastically, endorsed Kasten. Kasten, who had lurched right during the primaries leading into his victory on Super Tuesday, chose moderate retiring New York Governor Perry Duryea as his running mate.
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« Reply #34 on: December 20, 2011, 01:02:50 pm »
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Democratic Primaries

The Democrats were just as disorganized as the Republicans. The contest, at first, was intended to be a conflict between former Democratic Senate leader Walter Mondale of Minnesota, a protege of Hubert Humphrey, who led in Iowa, and Senator Elizabeth Holtzman of New York, who had ran in 1982, who led in New Hampshire. A distinct third choice also existed in Senator Gary Hart of Colorado, who had also ran in 1982 and whom polling showed ran second in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Several additional candidates also ran. Harold Washington, the Mayor of Chicago, focused on Iowa; he was one of the first truly serious African-American candidates for the Presidency. Governor Michael Dukakis, of Massachusetts, focused on New Hampshire; Senator Al Gore, of Tennessee, ran well in the South, but failed to make much headway in the early states, and dropped out in mid-December.

The Democratic primaries in 1986 followed almost the exact same schedule as the Republican ones.

The field opened in Iowa with a decidedly underwhelming performance by alleged frontrunner Walter Mondale, who had been campaigning for several years but nevertheless placed third, behind winner Harold Washington and second-place candidate Gary Hart. Elizabeth Holtzman and Michael Dukakis, who had both done little campaigning, placed fourth and fifth, respectively.

Mondale's campaign was fatally wounded and he dropped out. Hart, who came in only a percentage point behind Washington, spun himself as a 'Comeback Kid', having done well in spite of allegations of an extramarital affair, took the lead in New Hampshire polling.

Hart successfully won New Hampshire, with Holtzman placing second, Dukakis third, and Washington fourth. Holtzman and Dukakis, who had both staked their campaigns, dropped out, leaving the primaries a two-way match between Washington and Hart.

Although Hart took a decisive lead in national polling, he was damaged by an upset Washington victory in Michigan; Hart then recovered with a string of victories in Hawaii, Kansas, and Nevada. He split the March 1st primaries with Washington, as Washington carried Minnesota while Hart won South Dakota. Washington shifted his campaign to the South, hoping to carry the March 12th South Carolina primary (he was aided by former polling leader Al Gore endorsing Washington on the 11th).

In the meantime, Hart won Wyoming, Maine, Alaska, and Vermont, but Washington won a decisive victory in South Carolina with almost 2/3 of the vote. Washington was also aided, in the runup to Super Tuesday, by an endorsement by former Alabama Governor and presidential candidate George Wallace.

Finally, with both candidates tied and hoping for a decisive victory, Super Tuesday rolled along. Both candidates carried 8 states (Hart won Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Washington to Washington's Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia), but the biggest prize, Texas, remained too close to call for several days. On March 23rd, the same day as Washington's decisive victory in Illinois, Texas was finally called for Hart, giving him a decisive lead in the delegate count and providing momentum, which was used over the next days for victories in Connecticut and Colorado, but was halted when Washington roared back in Wisconsin.

With both candidates hoping for a victory in the May 3rd Pennsylvania primary, focus shifted to Pennsylvania as both candidates campaigned furiously in the state. Hart was helped along by the endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bob Casey, and decisively won the state. By now, most of the media viewed a Washington victory as extremely unlikely, but Washington refused to drop out, winning D.C. and scoring an upset in Indiana on May 10th even as Hart carried Ohio. Over the next several days, Hart won additional victories in Oregon and Idaho, prompting Washington to drop out on Memorial Day.

Hart and Washington held a joint rally on June 7th, at which Hart promised to name Washington his vice-presidential candidate; but, following a near-fatal heart attack on July 10th, Washington backed out (in fact also promising not to seek reelection to the Mayoralty in 1987), prompting media speculation about the new vice-presidential candidate.

On the first day of the convention, Hart picked Senator Claiborne Pell, of Rhode Island, as his running mate. Although at first criticized for choosing an older, white male, Pell's grandfatherly appearance balanced out Hart's youthfulness, and polling in mid-October suggested Pell was more popular than Hart, Kasten, or Duryea.

General Election

Although hypothetical polling before either of the two were nominated usually showed Hart leading Kasten, Kasten attained his party's nomination first, enabling him to campaign in swing states while Hart was still battling Washington; and when September and the general election season came, the election was too close to call; and so it remained up until Election Day.
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« Reply #35 on: December 20, 2011, 01:51:14 pm »
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I was rooting for Thompson.
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« Reply #36 on: December 22, 2011, 05:28:56 pm »
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1986 Election Night Coverage

6:30 PM

CLINTON: Good evening, folks, and welcome once again to Newstime with Bill Clinton. This is a special edition, as CNN has graciously allowed us to continue until a winner has been announced in the presidential election.

[intermittent cheers from the audience]

CLINTON: I would like to introduce the map which we will be using in the election.



As you can see, as of right now, the map is entirely gray. In the presidential election, gray will mean states that are still voting; green will mean states which have finished voting, but where there is still no clear winner; red means a victory for Hart; and blue a victory for Kasten. We will keep a running tally of electoral votes; keep in mind 270 are necessary for a victory.

We will also be using this map for the Senate and gubernatorial elections this year; the same key will be used, but gray will also mean states which are not voting whatsoever. We won't have a map going of House elections; sorry.

And with that, I would like to introduce our Election Night Great American Panel!

[cheers from the audience]

CLINTON: Deputy Secretary of State George Bush! The senior Senator from Texas, Lloyd Bentsen! The junior Senator from Indiana, Dan Quayle! And the Mayor of Chicago, Harold Washington!

[The members of the Election Night Great American Panel walk onstage and sit down to general applause.]

CLINTON: With the first states closing in

[checks watch]

twenty-six minutes, if I could hear your predictions? Senator?

BENTSEN: Probably a very close Hart victory, I would say. The Democrats keep the House, but I would say Senate polling seems to suggest a narrow Republican takeover.

WASHINGTON: Be an optimist, Lloyd.

[laughter]

BUSH: I'd have to disagree with you there, Lloyd.

BENTSEN: You have in the past.

BUSH: [chuckling]

CLINTON: For those who missed the joke, Misters Bush and Bentsen ran against each other for a Senate seat in 1970.

BUSH: Yes, Bill. Back to the topic at hand I'd have to predict a Kasten victory. It'll be close, I don't doubt, but Kasten seems to have the upper hand.

CLINTON: Senator Quayle?

QUAYLE: Of course he does. I would also not hesitate to say that Republicans will take both Houses of Congress.

CLINTON: Glad to hear your opinions, gentlemen.

[facing audience]

We're going to commercial break now, but when we come back, the first states close, with the first actual votes being counted! It's all right here, on Newstime with Bill Clinton.

[commercial break]
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« Reply #37 on: December 28, 2011, 10:21:32 am »
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1986 Election Night Coverage (cont.)

7:00 PM

CLINTON: Hello again, folks. Now that it's seven o'clock, polls have closed in seven states Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. We also have several calls.

We can call the states of South Carolina and Virginia for Kasten.

PRESIDENT
South Carolina


[X] Bob Kasten

PRESIDENT
Virginia


[X] Bob Kasten

The remaining five states remain too close to call. Thus, as of right now, Kasten leads, 20-0. Kasten supporters shouldn't be getting complacent, but neither should Hart supporters be getting worried; in general, the states which close early were expected to favor Kasten.



In these seven states, four Senate elections were being held; Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vermont. The election in Kentucky, between Senator Harvey Sloane and his Republican challenger, Larry Forgy, remains too close to call; but in Georgia, South Carolina, and Vermont, two Democratic and one Republican incumbents have been easily reelected.

SENATE
Georgia


[X] Herman Talmadge

SENATE
South Carolina


[X] Ernest Hollings

SENATE
Vermont

no image available, sorry
[X] Richard Mallary


Additionally, Georgia, South Carolina, and Vermont were holding gubernatorial contests. We can definitely say that the Governor of Georgia, Joe Frank Harris, has been reelected.

GOVERNOR
Georgia

[X] Joe Frank Harris



The gubernatorial elections in South Carolina, between U.S. Representative Carroll Campbell, Jr., and state Lieutenant Governor Michael Daniel, and in Vermont, which is holding a three-way race between incumbent Democratic Governor Madeleine Kunin, Republican state Lieutenant Governor Peter Smith, and the Mayor of Burlington, Bernie Sanders, who is running as an independent. In Vermont, we can definitively say that either Smith or Kunin, not Sanders, will be the winner, but we are unable to say which.

Electoral Tally:
Kasten/Duryea 20
Hart/Pell 0

Senate Tally:
Republican 41
Democratic 29
« Last Edit: December 28, 2011, 10:38:39 am by Vosem »Logged

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« Reply #38 on: December 28, 2011, 10:28:51 am »
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I'm hoping for an interesting map. I'm hoping Hart can do well out West in MT, CO, & AZ while Kasten does well in places like WI & IL.
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« Reply #39 on: December 28, 2011, 10:33:36 am »
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I just want to note that Richard Mallary, whose picture I could not find, died yesterday at the age of 82. I'm glad to say that he achieved more success ITTL, being elected to the Senate.

I'm hoping for an interesting map. I'm hoping Hart can do well out West in MT, CO, & AZ while Kasten does well in places like WI & IL.

I've already planned out the entire election, and when the states will be called, so I'm just going to say that's a very interesting mixture of right and wrong calls...
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« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2012, 08:46:21 am »
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1986 Election Night Coverage (cont.)

7:15 PM

CLINTON: Hello again, folks. Now that it's seven fifteen, we have no additional poll closings, but of the races which were too close to call last time we checked in we can now call the state of Georgia for Bob Kasten.

We have also the states of South Carolina and Virginia for Kasten, who leads 32-0.

Georgia
PRESIDENT


[X] Bob Kasten



Electoral Tally:
Kasten/Duryea 32
Hart/Pell 0

Senate Tally:
Republican 41
Democratic 29
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