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Author Topic: Battle of the Liberals - A Brief Timeline  (Read 2375 times)
SirNick
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« on: December 16, 2010, 12:01:11 am »
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I should be studying for finals, but hey what the hell.

September 2011

President Barack Obama's approval has sunk to the mid 30's as unemployment remains steady, and the do-nothing Congress of 2011 sits and argues. The Senate and House both pass bills but neither is able to come around and compromise during conference committees. President Obama's approval fell drastically after a government shutdown backfired after the President caved into Republican demands unexpectedly. Gallup shows that most people do not see the President as a strong leader and 60% of likely voters want to see Obama replaced in 2012.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stepped down from her post in late 2010 and was replaced by  former Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, while Defense Secretary Robert Gates was replaced by former Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

The war in Afghanistan is going badly and American forces are pulling out --as the withdrawal continues the violence worsens. Iraq is fairly stable.

Iran is said to be close to nuclear weapons with most sanctions failing. Europe is in disarray as their markets continue to plummet.

Sensing the vulnerabilities of the President, Republicans Mitt Romney, John Thune, John Hoeven, New Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are actively seeking the Republican nomination.

Sarah Palin was originally running but after a poor performance in the debates decided to end her exploratory committee. She now has a full-time job on Fox News that pays millions.

President Obama is so far unchallenged for the Democratic nomination but there has been a lot of talk about liberals that might run.


On September 12th 2011, former Vice President Al Gore called for President Obama to step aside and let another Democrat try to win the nomination and the Presidency for the party's sake.

On September 13 2011, President Obama responded to the former Vice President's comments saying that he is "in this race to win it."

October 1, 2011


Former Vice President Al Gore announces that he will challenge President Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.

First Polling Data after the announcement:

Obama: 38%
Gore: 35%
Unsure: 27%

The first polls show what could very well be a tough battle for President Obama.


November 2011

President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, whose internal polls are worrysome, hit the campaign trail in Iowa and New Hampshire which will are scurrying to set up primaries. Gore, within a month, qualifies to be on the ballot in all 50 states and in DC. The President's former grassroots campaign is squabbling to get its stuff together but former Vice President Gore quickly picks up the endorsements, obviously, of the Green movement and its volunteers.

An intern at the White House mentions to a member of the press at a bar that the President has looked "more worried than ever since Gore announced his candidacy."



December 2011

The first debate occurs between President Obama and former Vice President Gore. Polling had shown that self-described liberal Democrats are leaning towards or voting for Gore by a 55-40 margin and after the debate, the margin increases to a 70-30 margin. The President seems flustered in the debate while Gore slams him for capitulating to the enemy and mishandling the economy, a filibuster proof majority, as well as Afghanistan. Like President Obama in 2008, people respond most to Gore when he criticizes the Obama Administration's policy on Afghanistan.

January 2012


President Obama pulls off a narrow win at the Iowa caucuses.


Results:

Obama: 50.1%
Gore: 49.78%
Other: .12%
« Last Edit: December 16, 2010, 12:03:17 am by sirnick »Logged

SirNick
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2010, 12:16:31 am »
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*Assume the NH primary is on Jan 7, 2012


The winner of the Republican caucuses in Iowa goes to...


Senator, and former Governor, John Hoeven.

Hoeven: 23.8%
Thune: 20.1%
Paul: 20.09%
Romney: 15.3%
Gingrich: 12.1%
Santorum: 8.61%

January 5, 2011

Former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds a huge rally in New Hampshire drawing over 20,000 people. At this rally she decries the off-track policies of the Obama Administration, cites her own credentials, calls Vice President Gore "old news" and announces that she will be running a write-in campaign for the Democratic nomination. She also states that "after Iowa, former Vice President Gore clearly cannot get the job done."



January 7, 2012



New Hampshire Primary Results:

Democratic Primary:


Hillary Clinton (write in): 34.82%
Al Gore: 33.15%
Barack Obama: 32.03%


Post Primary National Polling:

Clinton: 33%
Gore: 31%
Obama: 27%
Undecided: 9%


Republican Primary:



Former Governor Mitt Romney has his first win of the season.

Romney: 37.24%
Paul: 22.11%
Hoeven: 17.6%
Thune: 10.2%
Gingrich: 8.1%
Santorum: 4.75%
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2010, 12:37:50 am »
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No offense, man, but as soon as I saw that this was another 2012 timline, it got tl/dr'd.
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Seriously, it was time to change back to the real avatar.
Carlos Danger
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2010, 12:47:54 am »
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I think Al Gore's career ended after he paid $500 at 11:00PM for a "massage."
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Korwinist
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2010, 06:26:26 am »
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Hoeven, Paul (which one?) and Thune?

Now that is an interesting start.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2010, 07:38:21 am »
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This is a good timeline. Please continue
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the birth of modern america and on timeline(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195483.new#new)breaking: daniel webster 10th president of the united states; elected in 1852 defeating stephen douglas succeeding retiring whig president theodore frelinghuysen & daniel webster also a whig
SirNick
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2010, 09:38:36 am »
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No offense, man, but as soon as I saw that this was another 2012 timline, it got tl/dr'd.

I was bored. I did well on my final though.
Hoeven, Paul (which one?) and Thune?

Now that is an interesting start.

Ron Paul.
I think Al Gore's career ended after he paid $500 at 11:00PM for a "massage."

The American people just happen to overlook that.
This is a good timeline. Please continue

It's going to be very brief.


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SirNick
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2010, 09:55:57 am »
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FAST FORWARD:

Republican Primary:

Ron Paul wins Nevada and Wyoming while Hoeven wins South Carolina. Romney sinks in the polls due to high turnout of self-described conservatives or Tea Party supporters and drops out of the race after only winning a few states on Super Tuesday. Hoeven manages to fight off Ron Paul who still comes off a tad bit extreme although Ron Paul was closer to getting the nomination than ever before with swelling grassroots support. Hoeven wins the nomination in late May.

Democratic Primary:

The primary battle for the Democrats gets downright dirty. The President is called a failure and constantly put on the defense while Hillary and Gore called for the President to participate in debates which he has refused to do. The only ace up Obama's sleeve seems to be Joe Biden who has a higher approval rating than his own right now (Obama's is 27%).





Vice President Al Gore of Tenneseee: 37% popular vote, 1,271 pledged delegates,  superdelegates, 247 superdelegates, 1,518 total delegates, 24 states

President Barack Obama of Illinois: 27% popular vote, 927 pledged delegates, 411 super delegates, 1,338 total delegates, 13 states + DC

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of New York: 36% popular vote, 1,236 pledged delegates, 165 superdelegates, 1,401 total delegates, 13 states

It is clear that the nomination will go to the convention floor.
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SirNick
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2010, 10:20:58 am »
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Sometime in July 2012:

Head-To-Head Polling:

Obama v. Hoeven:  37% - 45%

Gore v. Hoeven:  45% - 45%

Clinton v. Hoeven: 47% - 42%

The Republican Convention goes pretty smoothly until Ron Paul announces that he turned down a VP offer by Hoeven and will run as an independent candidate instead. People inside the Republican Party are pretty pissed.  Chris Christie accepts Hoeven's offer for Vice President even though Ron Paul announced that Christie was his second choice.

Later...at the Democratic National Convention...

The first two rounds of voting end in a stalemate between Gore, President Obama and Clinton. For once, Clinton completely beats Obama in the popular vote but he did win the same amount of states as her, and DC. Gore is the clear frontrunner but is still 600 delegates short of the nomination.

The third round of voting goes the same way, before the fourth round delegates are starting to discuss a compromise candidate who could be the winner.

The leaders of the Michigan delegation, the Iowa delegation and the Oregon delegate go up to the podium and announce that they will change their vote to defeated former Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin.

Fourth Round of Voting:

Candidate: Pledged (Now Free) Delegates (%), Superdelegates (%), total delegates (%)
Obama: 618 (18%), 370 (45%), 988 (23.2%)
Gore: 1,099 (31%), 164 (20%),  1,263 (29.7%)
Clinton: 962 (28%), 123 (15%),  1,085 (25.5%)
Feingold: 790 (23%), 164 (20%), 954 (22.4%)

Feingold, who accepts the chance at the nomination, clearly has momentum.

Before the fifth round of voting, the candidates decide to shake it up even more...

Al Gore announces that if nominated Governor Christine Gregoire of Washington will be his running mate.
Russ Feingold announces that if nominated current Secretary of State Bill Richardson will be his running mate. President Obama goes and asks for Richardson's resignation but Richardson had already BBM'd it to the President.
Hillary Clinton announces that if nominated former Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania will be her running mate. Clearly a move to get the Pennsylvania delegation to come to her side.

Howard Dean announces that pigs fly.


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SirNick
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« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2010, 10:36:35 am »
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During the fifth round of votes, the Pennsylvania and New Jersey delegations abandon the President for Hillary Clinton while the Arizona and New Mexico delegations abandon the President for Russ Feingold. Feingold gains many hispanic delegates while black delegates who support the President begin wavering. The Texas delegation splits, half goes to Feingold, a quarter remains with Clinton and the other quarter goes to Gore.

After the fifth round the President sees his support diminished entirely so he pulls out of the convention and announces that he will seek the Presidency as an independent. In the sixth round of voting Feingold overtakes Clinton and in the seventh round Clinton endorses Feingold enabling him to defeat Gore.

The next day, Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York announces that he will run for President as an independent calling "all this party stuff is nonsense." Bloomberg manages to get General David Patraeus to jump on as VP (who changes his residency to Virginia).

Candidates:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York - General David Pataeus of Virginia - Independent

President Barack Obama of Illinois - Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware - Independent

Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin - Secretary of State Bill Richardson of New Mexico - Democratic Party

Representative Ron Paul of Texas - Senator Marco Rubio of Florida - Independent

Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota - Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey - Republican Party
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2010, 10:46:28 am »
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This will be a messed up map! I see Hoevan still pulling through, as the right isn't nearly as split as the left is.
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SirNick
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2010, 10:53:49 am »
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Sometime in August...

Ralph Nader announces that he will seek the Presidency. Matt Gonzalez will be his VP again (no one cares).

Jimmy McMillan announces that he will seek the Presidency for the Rent is Too Damn High Party. His running mate is the growling stomachs of the children and Cynthia McKinney will be his running mate.


Basil Marceaux announces that he will seek the Presidency as a member of the Basil Marceaux Dot Com Party. His running mate will be State Senator Bruce Burns of Wyoming.

The first debate between all the candidates occurs in September. The audience is completely split on who won the debate since it was a pissing contest for soundbytes and the rent is apparently still too damn high.

Polling:

Hoeven/Christie: 28%
Bloomberg/Patraeus: 21%
Feingold/Richardson: 17%
Obama/Biden: 17%
Paul/Rubio: ~10%
McMillan/McKinney: <1%
Nader/Gonzalez: <1%
Undecided: ~7%

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SirNick
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2010, 10:57:18 am »
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Electoral Map w/ Toss Ups 2012:

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SirNick
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2010, 11:40:43 am »
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National Polling October 2012:

Hoeven/Christie: 30%
Bloomberg/Patraeus: 25%
Feingold/Richardson: 23%
Obama/Biden: 12%
Paul/Rubio: 7%
McMillan/McKinney: <1%
Nader/Gonzalez: <1%
Undecided: ~3%

The Vice Presidential debate is dominated by Christie, Patraeus, Richardson and Biden. Rubio, McKinney, Gonzalez pretty much are left in the dust.

The media focuses on the horserace and completely misses all the policy differences between the candidates.


Election Day rolls around and no one is sure how the race will turn out.

Next: Results
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liberalkid
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E: -5.16, S: -7.65

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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2010, 11:52:54 am »
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Great timeline. truely kick@$$.
a few mumbled things.
1. Obama wouldn't run as an independent
2. Nader, much as i adore him, is too old and wouldn't run against Feingold.
Otherwise, great timeline!
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Liberalkid- 14-year old political junkie who tries to read as much as he can.
Social Libertarian (i hesitate to say liberal because i oppose the Fairness Doctrine), Foreign Policy Moderate, Economic Liberal
magazine suscriptions: The Nation, The Progressive, National Review
SirNick
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« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2010, 12:03:19 pm »
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Great timeline. truely kick@$$.
a few mumbled things.
1. Obama wouldn't run as an independent
2. Nader, much as i adore him, is too old and wouldn't run against Feingold.
Otherwise, great timeline!

I feel like you don't want this to be exciting Wink
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2010, 02:22:53 pm »
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this TL is really exciting Wink I'm tired of 2012 TLs, but this one is absolutelhy different Wink
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Korwinist
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« Reply #17 on: December 16, 2010, 04:13:27 pm »
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Wow dude, this is pretty damn interesting.

-Al Gore vs Obama
-Hoeven narrowly defeating Paul
-Paul running third party
-Various liberals running third party
-The indies actually matter! The two party system is apparently crumbling!

Keep this up.
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2010, 01:04:23 pm »
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RENT IS TOO DAMN HIGH!
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SirNick
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2010, 02:18:02 pm »
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I'm working on the results, it'll be good Cheesy
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SirNick
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2010, 03:23:37 pm »
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CNN:

Pre-Election 2012 Analysis:

Carville: For the first time in history we have a race where each of the 5 major candidates in the running has a shot at the Presidency. If President Obama, who is running as an independent, wants to keep his job then he has to break the 270 margin or come in the top 3 for electoral votes...

Blitzer: How will the Feingold/Richardson ticket help or hurt President Obama?

Carville: I think its a matter of how will President Obama hurt the Feingold/Richardson ticket. The Feingold/Richardson ticket is the best chance the Democrats have at keeping the White House. President Obama will only take away Democratic voters who would otherwise vote for the Feingold/Richardson ticket...

Blitzer: Do you think we'll see a winner tonight?

Carville: No, but we will know who the next President of the United States will not be, tonight...
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SirNick
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2010, 04:00:27 pm »
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First Round of Results:

Indiana:


Senator John Hoeven who will carry about 37% of the vote there.

Kentucky: We can tell you that this race is too close to call. As results come in we can see Senator Feingold, Senator Hoeven and Mayor Bloomberg battling for first place.

Florida will go to...


Senator John Hoeven who will carry the state with about 37% of the vote again.

Georgia will go to...



Mayor Michael Bloomberg carries Georgia with about 26% of the vote there in our first surprise tonight. This could be a great sign for the Bloomberg campaign.
South Carolina:

Vermont is too close to call right now.

Virginia will go to...



Senator John Hoeven who will receive around 30% of the vote there.
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SirNick
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« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2010, 04:17:25 pm »
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The Second Round of Results!

DC, Delaware and Connecticut will go to...



President Barack Obama wins these three states in the northeast barely edging out the Feingold/Richardson ticket.

Maryland, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, West Virginia, Missouri, will go to...



Senator John Hoeven cleans up six states with a mere plurality of the vote.

Massachusetts will go to...



Senator Russ Feingold has beat out President Obama and Mayor Bloomberg for Massachusett's 11 Electoral Votes with 27% of the vote.

New Hampshire is too close to call but surprisingly Ron Paul is in the lead. We'll let you know if that changes throughout the night.

New Jersey is too close to call. We can tell you that Chris Christie being on the Republican ticket did not help John Hoeven secure a victory here. If the Republicans are to win New Jersey it is going to be a fight.

Maine, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas, Kentucky and Vermont are too close to call.


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SirNick
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« Reply #23 on: December 17, 2010, 04:20:26 pm »
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President Barack Obama - Vice President Joe Biden - Yellow [Independent]
Senator John Hoeven - Governor Chris Christie - Blue [Republican]
Senator Russ Feingold - Governor Bill Richardson - Red [Democratic]
Mayor Michael  Bloomberg - General David Patraeus - Green [Independent]
Congressman Ron Paul - Senator Marco Rubio - Didn't pick a color yet [Independent]
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SirNick
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« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2010, 04:40:12 pm »
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In the hiatus of results coming in....

Vermont is called for Congressman Ron Paul who win edge out the competitors in this state.




New Jersey is called for...



Mayor Michael Bloomberg


The next results come pouring in....

Mayor Michael Bloomberg or President Obama will win New York. We can tell you that the race is definitely between the two of them at this point.

Michael Bloomberg is predicted to barely win North Carolina, and wins Rhode Island by a substantial margin.

John Hoeven picks up Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Colorado,

President Obama is predicted to pick up Minnesota for his fourth win of the night.

Russ Feingold picks up Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Mexico and South Dakota.

Ron Paul manages to put Wyoming, Oklahoma and Vermont in his pocket.




Maine, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas, Kentucky, New Hampshire are too close to call.




President Barack Obama - Vice President Joe Biden - Yellow [Independent]
Senator John Hoeven - Governor Chris Christie - Blue [Republican]
Senator Russ Feingold - Governor Bill Richardson - Red [Democratic]
Mayor Michael  Bloomberg - General David Patraeus - Green [Independent]
Congressman Ron Paul - Senator Marco Rubio - Didn't pick a color yet [Orange-ish]
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