2010 Rematches

[Del Tachi]

Do you think that there are any defeated House Democrats from the 2010 cycle who would be able to win their primary and fight for their old seats in 2012?  I think that the political climate we are in right now would seem to indicate that a large number of Democrats might be considering doing something like that.  By 2012, I see the Republican Congress' approval ratings to be so low that they may be in jeopardy of loosing their majority.  If this is the case, I think many voters would be more willing to go with the guys they threw out in 2010 rather than nominate political unknowns.  I think that these defeated House Democrats are very likley to run again in 2012:

-Paul Kanjorksi (PA-11)
-John Spratt (SC-5)
-Charlie Melancon (LA-3) Technically not on 2010 ballot, ran for LA Senate
-Gene Taylor (MS-4)
-Chet Edwards (TX-17)
-Ciro Rodrigeuz (TX-23)
-Dina Titus (NV-3) Barring that she doesn't run against Ensign
-Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
-Bill Foster (IL-14)
-Solomon Ortiz (TX-27)

So, do y'all think that these congresspeople will run again?  If so, do they have any chance at winning?

[memphis]

Depends how redistricting plays out. For better or worse, some of these districts (although ND-AL is probably secure ) won't exist in any recognizable form in 2012.

[Niemeyerite]

Do you think that there are any defeated House Democrats from the 2010 cycle who would be able to win their primary and fight for their old seats in 2012?  I think that the political climate we are in right now would seem to indicate that a large number of Democrats might be considering doing something like that.  By 2012, I see the Republican Congress' approval ratings to be so low that they may be in jeopardy of loosing their majority.  If this is the case, I think many voters would be more willing to go with the guys they threw out in 2010 rather than nominate political unknowns.  I think that these defeated House Democrats are very likley to run again in 2012:

-Paul Kanjorksi (PA-11)
-John Spratt (SC-5)
-Charlie Melancon (LA-3) Technically not on 2010 ballot, ran for LA Senate
-Gene Taylor (MS-4)
-Chet Edwards (TX-17)
-Ciro Rodrigeuz (TX-23)
-Dina Titus (NV-3) Barring that she doesn't run against Ensign
-Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
-Bill Foster (IL-14)
-Solomon Ortiz (TX-27)

So, do y'all think that these congresspeople will run again?  If so, do they have any chance at winning?

Yes, I think at lease 20 or 25 democrats will run again in 2012, but Kanjorski, Ortiz and Spratt are too old. they can just retire. childers won't win the primary after saying he voted for mccain. edards would probably run fot state senate or something else because he couldn't even carry 40% of the vote. titus will run fot he new seator for the senate. melancon won't have a CD to run for. rodriguez, foster and pomeroy can make a comeback bid for their seats

[Sam Spade]

-Paul Kanjorksi (PA-11) I really doubt it - He will be 75 and ran poorly in about the best district he's gonna get.
-John Spratt (SC-5) Will be 70 in 2010 and I suspect that CD will be almost impossible for Dems to win back, though I need to see how it does in redistricting.
-Charlie Melancon (LA-3) Louisiana will lose a seat and I suspect he'll lose some blacks to shore up the VRA district.  Gonna be hard but this area of the world is weird, though Obama being at top of CD is a real problem.
-Gene Taylor (MS-4) Not with Obama at the top of the ticket here.
-Chet Edwards (TX-17) GOP is gonna make sure he doesn't come back - watch.  Besides, downballot things in 2010 suggest he has no chance.
-Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) Need to see how redistricting shapes up here, of all places.
-Dina Titus (NV-3) She'll run again for something, though she looks like a serial underperformer to me.
-Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL) He could certainly run again (only 58), but he was definitely a serial underperformer and a long-time incumbent.
-Bill Foster (IL-14) Depending on how the CDs are designed, I could definitely see it.
-Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) He's too old.  His son would be more likely.  Redistricting will answer a lot of these questions, btw.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I would say that all the white Southern districts that the Democrats lost this year are gone for good. I doubt any of the losers will run again. Gene Taylor has been talking about trying again in 2012, but I don't think the voters in his district have any interest in putting him back in.

Who might try again? A few thoughts:

- Ami Bera in CA-03, assuming the new redistricting committee makes Lungren's district more vulnerable.
- Steve Pougnet in CA-45, for the same reason.
- Sam Caligiuri in CT-05, especially if Chris Murphy runs for the Senate.
- Ron Klein in FL-22, since West is almost certainly going to be a one-termer.
- Bill Foster in IL-14, especially given that the Democrats will make the map better for the Dems.
- Frank Kratovil in MD-01, if the Dems make MD-01 less Republican.
- Mark Schauer in MI-07, unless the map is made even more Republican, given how weak Walberg is.
- Dina Titus will probably go for the new district if she runs again. Despite the fact that she's a pretty weak candidate, she's loved by Democrats for some reason.
- Ann Kuster will almost certainly run again in NH-02; she came within a couple percent of beating Bass.
- Of the New York losers, I'd say Dan Maffei and John Hall are potential comeback kids. I expect Murphy and Arcuri's districts will end up more Republican, so I doubt they'll run again.
- In North Carolina, you can expect at least two or three Republican pickups, but I imagine the Republicans will get stronger candidates next time around.
- Steve Driehaus in OH-01 did a lot better than some other incumbents in the state despite getting triaged by the DCCC. Of course, the district will probably get pushed at least a couple points more Republican.
- Of the Pennsylvania losers, I'd put Patrick Murphy at the top of the list. I doubt any of the other losers will try again; maybe Bryan Lentz.
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin might as well get out of DC or wait until 2014, when Tim Johnson probably retires. She is the Democratic bench in South Dakota.
- Ciro Rodriguez is another weak incumbent; the Dems would be better off with someone else.
- God knows why, but Glenn Nye is talking about running again.

Okay, that was more than a few.

[Mr.Phips]

I would say that all the white Southern districts that the Democrats lost this year are gone for good. I doubt any of the losers will run again. Gene Taylor has been talking about trying again in 2012, but I don't think the voters in his district have any interest in putting him back in.

Who might try again? A few thoughts:

- Ami Bera in CA-03, assuming the new redistricting committee makes Lungren's district more vulnerable.
- Steve Pougnet in CA-45, for the same reason.
- Sam Caligiuri in CT-05, especially if Chris Murphy runs for the Senate.
- Ron Klein in FL-22, since West is almost certainly going to be a one-termer.
- Bill Foster in IL-14, especially given that the Democrats will make the map better for the Dems.
- Frank Kratovil in MD-01, if the Dems make MD-01 less Republican.
- Mark Schauer in MI-07, unless the map is made even more Republican, given how weak Walberg is.
- Dina Titus will probably go for the new district if she runs again. Despite the fact that she's a pretty weak candidate, she's loved by Democrats for some reason.
- Ann Kuster will almost certainly run again in NH-02; she came within a couple percent of beating Bass.
- Of the New York losers, I'd say Dan Maffei and John Hall are potential comeback kids. I expect Murphy and Arcuri's districts will end up more Republican, so I doubt they'll run again.
- In North Carolina, you can expect at least two or three Republican pickups, but I imagine the Republicans will get stronger candidates next time around.
- Steve Driehaus in OH-01 did a lot better than some other incumbents in the state despite getting triaged by the DCCC. Of course, the district will probably get pushed at least a couple points more Republican.
- Of the Pennsylvania losers, I'd put Patrick Murphy at the top of the list. I doubt any of the other losers will try again; maybe Bryan Lentz.
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin might as well get out of DC or wait until 2014, when Tim Johnson probably retires. She is the Democratic bench in South Dakota.
- Ciro Rodriguez is another weak incumbent; the Dems would be better off with someone else.
- God knows why, but Glenn Nye is talking about running again.

Okay, that was more than a few.

I would add Ann Kuster in NH-02, who said she will run again.  Maybe Julia Lassa in WI-07. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Of the PA districts, if kept intact I can see Pat Murphy in which I think PA-8 will only have trace changes.  2nd choice PA-7 in Bryan Lentz because me thinks the GOP doesn't want to screw with PA 6 and 16 too much making those seats fall in a Dem wave.  IMO, the GOP is maxed out in the Southeast as it stands.  PA-11 will feature another Democrat not named Paul Kanjorski.

I think the "merger" will come from PA 4 and 12, draw a couple things here and there to make it a GOP district.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) may make another run in 2012, especially seeing how close the margin of victory was in 2010, but an increased turnout in South Dakota with Obama on top of the ticket won't help her much; however, would Sarah Palin on top of the ticket help Kristi Noem in South Dakota?

How about Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) in MO-04? Vicky Hartzler is an extreme religious right-wing zealot (which matches the district pretty well), but Skelton is also pretty conservative. He's old, though, so I doubt he'll run again, but it's a possibility. Obama leading the ticket won't help him (John McCain carried the district with over 60 percent in 2008). This is one district where Sarah Palin may have coattails for Hartzler, and I doubt Democrats can find another viable candidate to defeat Hartzler or any other generic Republican in this district, for that matter.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Skelton is older than dirt. I suspect the only reason he even bothered running again was so he could hold the seat until 2012 when he could retire and it could be carved up.

[HappyWarrior]

For MD-01 it will either be Congressman Kratovil running again or newly elected State Senator and former Ocean City Mayor Jim Mathias running against Andy Harris, both strong candidates who would have a shot at a win.  The House of Delegates will certainly be shoring up this district in the upcoming redistricting to help Kratovil take back the seat, mark my words.

[Badger]

For MD-01 it will either be Congressman Kratovil running again or newly elected State Senator and former Ocean City Mayor Jim Mathias running against Andy Harris, both strong candidates who would have a shot at a win.  The House of Delegates will certainly be shoring up this district in the upcoming redistricting to help Kratovil take back the seat, mark my words.

We can only hope.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Mathias is a very well-liked guy on the lower Shore, but he'd probably be one of the most conservative Dems in the House.

[Badger]

Mathias is a very well-liked guy on the lower Shore, but he'd probably be one of the most conservative Dems in the House.

My pref would be Kratovil then, but either would be a darn sight better than Harris.

[minionofmidas]

Ann Kirkpatrick?

[krazen1211]

Of the PA districts, if kept intact I can see Pat Murphy in which I think PA-8 will only have trace changes.  2nd choice PA-7 in Bryan Lentz because me thinks the GOP doesn't want to screw with PA 6 and 16 too much making those seats fall in a Dem wave.  IMO, the GOP is maxed out in the Southeast as it stands.  PA-11 will feature another Democrat not named Paul Kanjorski.

I think the "merger" will come from PA 4 and 12, draw a couple things here and there to make it a GOP district.

Fitzpatrick actually beat Murphy in Bucks County even in 2006. The problem, of course, was that utterly foolish string into Philadelphia and Montco which gave Murphy his entire margin of victory.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Michael McMahon may run again in NY-13. 

http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2011/01/staten_island_ex-congressman_m.html

[Tender Branson]

I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) may make another run in 2012, especially seeing how close the margin of victory was in 2010, but an increased turnout in South Dakota with Obama on top of the ticket won't help her much; however, would Sarah Palin on top of the ticket help Kristi Noem in South Dakota?

In light of recent events: LULZ !

[BillyW]

I wish Alan Grayson would run again. What a yukfest that would be