Kerry/Bush results for new CDs

[MilesC56]

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

[nclib]

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Great find, Miles! These appear to be the GOP/DEM incumbents running in Kerry/McCain seats.

Kerry/GOP

Walsh (IL-8)
Dold (IL-10)
Biggert (IL-11)
Schilling (IL-17)
Cravaack (MN-8)
Bass (NH-2)
Buerkle (NY-24)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

McCain/Dem

Barber (AZ-2)
Barrow (GA-12)
Chandler (KY-6)
Peterson (MN-7)
McIntyre (NC-7)
Kissell (NC-8)
Hochul (NY-27)
Critz (PA-12)
Matheson (UT-4)
Rahall (WV-3)

[MilesC56]

Here's what I've done so far from that report. More to come.

[MilesC56]

And here we are.

Bush/Kerry 2004 by 2012 CDs:




Swing:



34 districts swung towards McCain; pretty much they're all where you expect they would be.

Also, 5 districts didn't experience a statistically significant swing either way [Barber (AZ), Wasserman-Schultz (FL), McCarthy (NY), Keating (MA), Tierney (MA)].

A trend map is in the works.

[The Head Beagle]

Nice! Lots of interesting stuff on the swing map in particular that.

WI doesn't look right, though - pretty sure WI-8 (the Green Bay district) had the largest swing.

[MilesC56]

Nice! Lots of interesting stuff on the swing map in particular that.

WI doesn't look right, though - pretty sure WI-8 (the Green Bay district) had the largest swing.

Yeah, you're right. I'll fix it.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Great work Miles!

[Smid]

Miles, you are fantastic! Great work!

I hope you don't mind, but I borrowed your map to create a key map with the congressional districts shaded according to DRA. The map is slightly enlarged, to make some of the metropolitan areas easier to tell apart, and I smoothed the boundaries a little, as well. I just thought it might make it a little quicker when converting from table form to map.

I used this website to identify the districts, and Muon's California maps uploaded here to identify the shades required. Any mistakes, however, are obviously my own.

[MilesC56]

Smid, I really like how that map came out! You did a good job of integrating the smaller districts.

[Smid]

Smid, I really like how that map came out! You did a good job of integrating the smaller districts.

Glad you approve of it! You did all the hard work, I just tinkered at the edges. It's not perfect, of course, some of the limbs sticking off some districts are just too small to accurately portray. I also toyed with leaving the water area out of Tampa Bay (more like VA-02, LA-01, or the islands off Alaska, Massachusetts or California, or the ones in WA, for that matter).

I've started playing around with it for a Cook PVI map, using Earl's 15-shade Conservative vs Liberal colour scale, used for Canadian elections, but I don't think I'll post it because it's not the standard ten-shades used here for US elections. It's not quite complete yet, anyway.

EDIT: Removed the water part of FL-14, as discussed above.

[Smid]

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Decided to upload it, even though it uses a different colour scale to that typically used by the Forum for US election results (full credit to Earl for creating this colour scale, which is saved in the Gallery in the "Miscellaneous" sub-folder). If someone wants to do it in the normal colour shades, I'm happy to pull this version down.

2012 Cook PVI by Congressional District (2004 & 2008 Presidential Results)


EDIT: Corrected errors in OR-04 and OR-05. Don't know how that happened, perhaps I was looking at Oklahoma by mistake.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Great find, Miles! These appear to be the GOP/DEM incumbents running in Kerry/McCain seats.

Kerry/GOP

Walsh (IL-8)
Dold (IL-10)
Biggert (IL-11)
Schilling (IL-17)
Cravaack (MN-8)
Bass (NH-2)
Buerkle (NY-24)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

McCain/Dem

Barber (AZ-2)
Barrow (GA-12)
Chandler (KY-6)
Peterson (MN-7)
McIntyre (NC-7)
Kissell (NC-8)
Hochul (NY-27)
Critz (PA-12)
Matheson (UT-4)
Rahall (WV-3)

There's got to be a couple Kerry/GOP districts in California now.  CA-26, CA-31, CA-41, and possibly CA-52 come to mind. 

[Senator Napoleon]

All of those voted for Bush. You might forget how strong the swing to Obama was, but Kerry didn't do nearly as well in California as Obama did.

[Senator Napoleon]

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too...

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.

Found it on RRH, though this is for the Special Master map.

Dist. Kerry Bush Clinton Lazio
1 49.3% 50.7% 40.7% 59.3%
2 49.5% 50.5% 41.2% 58.8%
3 51.8% 48.2% 44.9% 55.1%
4 54.4% 45.6% 47.3% 52.7%
5 84.8% 15.2% 83% 17%
6 60.1% 39.9% 57.6% 42.4%
7 81.5% 18.5% 81% 19%
8 80.3% 19.7% 80.9% 19.1%
9 83.3% 16.7% 84.3% 15.7%
10 72.2% 27.8% 69.2% 30.8%
11 43.4% 56.6% 42.8% 57.2%
12 76.8% 23.2% 71.8% 28.2%
13 91.7% 8.3% 90.3% 9.7%
14 70.7% 29.3% 71.1% 28.9%
15 91.8% 8.2% 93% 7%
16 68.1% 31.9% 63.6% 36.4%
17 54% 46% 48.8% 51.2%
18 46.2% 53.8% 40.6% 59.4%
19 48.7% 51.3% 44.2% 55.8%
20 55.9% 44.1% 54% 46%
21 47.1% 52.9% 45.5% 54.5%
22 46.3% 53.7% 45.6% 54.4%
23 45.1% 54.9% 44.5% 55.5%
24 52.2% 47.8% 51.4% 48.6%
25 52.1% 47.9% 49.8% 50.2%
26 63.4% 36.6% 63.3% 36.7%
27 42.6% 57.4% 43% 57%

Its crazy that Lazio won the 17th.

[Mr.Phips]

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too...

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.

Found it on RRH, though this is for the Special Master map.

Dist. Kerry Bush Clinton Lazio
1 49.3% 50.7% 40.7% 59.3%
2 49.5% 50.5% 41.2% 58.8%
3 51.8% 48.2% 44.9% 55.1%
4 54.4% 45.6% 47.3% 52.7%
5 84.8% 15.2% 83% 17%
6 60.1% 39.9% 57.6% 42.4%
7 81.5% 18.5% 81% 19%
8 80.3% 19.7% 80.9% 19.1%
9 83.3% 16.7% 84.3% 15.7%
10 72.2% 27.8% 69.2% 30.8%
11 43.4% 56.6% 42.8% 57.2%
12 76.8% 23.2% 71.8% 28.2%
13 91.7% 8.3% 90.3% 9.7%
14 70.7% 29.3% 71.1% 28.9%
15 91.8% 8.2% 93% 7%
16 68.1% 31.9% 63.6% 36.4%
17 54% 46% 48.8% 51.2%
18 46.2% 53.8% 40.6% 59.4%
19 48.7% 51.3% 44.2% 55.8%
20 55.9% 44.1% 54% 46%
21 47.1% 52.9% 45.5% 54.5%
22 46.3% 53.7% 45.6% 54.4%
23 45.1% 54.9% 44.5% 55.5%
24 52.2% 47.8% 51.4% 48.6%
25 52.1% 47.9% 49.8% 50.2%
26 63.4% 36.6% 63.3% 36.7%
27 42.6% 57.4% 43% 57%

Its crazy that Lazio won the 17th.

Im actually surprised Clinton won the 24th and that Lazio won the 25th.   

[nclib]

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Great find, Miles! These appear to be the GOP/DEM incumbents running in Kerry/McCain seats.

Kerry/GOP

Walsh (IL-8)
Dold (IL-10)
Biggert (IL-11)
Schilling (IL-17)
Cravaack (MN-8)
Bass (NH-2)
Buerkle (NY-24)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

McCain/Dem

Barber (AZ-2)
Barrow (GA-12)
Chandler (KY-6)
Peterson (MN-7)
McIntyre (NC-7)
Kissell (NC-8)
Hochul (NY-27)
Critz (PA-12)
Matheson (UT-4)
Rahall (WV-3)

There's got to be a couple Kerry/GOP districts in California now.  CA-26, CA-31, CA-41, and possibly CA-52 come to mind. 

All of those voted for Bush. You might forget how strong the swing to Obama was, but Kerry didn't do nearly as well in California as Obama did.

Yes, the combination of Obama overperforming among higher-income suburban whites, and Bush overperforming among Hispanics (though Cook's report mentions that CA-26 and CA-52 are too close to be confirmed).

[Smid]

Again, sorry about using Earl's colour scale, rather than the official one. I apologise in advance for any errors I may have made.

2004 Presidential Results by New Congressional Districts



2008 Presidential Results by New Congressional Districts



2004-2008 Presidential Swing by New Congressional Districts



2004-2008 Presidential Trend by New Congressional Districts

[krazen1211]

Biggest swings appear to be the 3 districts around Indianapolis and TX-34.

[MilesC56]

Biggest swings appear to be the 3 districts around Indianapolis and TX-34.

And HI

Good job Smid. I was going to make a trend map, but you've gotten that knocked out for me!

[Smid]

Biggest swings appear to be the 3 districts around Indianapolis and TX-34.

And HI

Good job Smid. I was going to make a trend map, but you've gotten that knocked out for me!

Glad you approve! I rather enjoyed doing it!

[Hatman]

Why apologize for my colour scale?

[Smid]

Why apologize for my colour scale?

Because it's different to what's typically used on the site for US domestic election results. Your fifteen shades are my preference, which is why I used them, but I figured it's courteous to apologise for the inconsistency with previous maps. A few posts up, I directed posters who are interested in using your colour scheme to the location in the gallery (under "Miscellaneous").

[nclib]

BTW, does anyone know of a site (here or elsewhere) with racial data and/or area (sq. miles) for the new CD's?

[muon2]

BTW, does anyone know of a site (here or elsewhere) with racial data and/or area (sq. miles) for the new CD's?

I expect that the Census Bureau will have the data once the 113th Congress is convened.

[nclib]

Comparing the Kerry/Bush results before/after, in some states more relevant than 2008 (unlisted states stayed the same):

AZ - New CD narrowly for Bush
GA - Bishop's and Barrow's CD's go from narrowly Bush to safely Kerry and safely Bush
IL - goes from 10-9 Kerry to 12-6 Kerry; one Bush CD eliminated; Walsh and Biggert go from Bush to Kerry, narrowly for Biggert
IA - Boswell (Bush) and Latham (Bush) combined into one Bush CD
LA - lost a Bush CD
MA - lost a Kerry CD (all are/were Kerry CD's)
MI - lost a Bush CD (Peters, who is now in a black-majority CD)
MO - lost a Kerry CD
NV - Heck (NV-3) goes from narrowly Bush to safely Bush, and new (NV-4) is narrowly Bush
NJ - lost a Kerry CD
NY - all incumbents the same, with 2 Kerry seats (Turner, Hinchey) gone
NC - Brad Miller's old seat (NC-13) goes from Kerry to Bush
OH - goes from (Kerry-Bush) 5-13 to 4-12; Kaptur and Kucinich's Kerry CD's combined to one Kerry, likewise for Sutton and Ryan, Turner and Austria likewise for Bush, new Columbus CD Kerry
PA - Gerlach (PA-6) and Meehan (PA-7) go from Kerry to Bush, PA-7 narrowly; Fitzpatrick (PA-8) more narrowly Kerry, Barletta (PA-11) from Kerry to Bush, Holden's old seat (PA-17) from Bush to Kerry; Altmire (Bush) and Critz (Kerry) become one Bush CD
SC - gain Bush CD
TX - gain one Kerry CD and three Bush CD's
UT - gain Bush CD (all are/were Bush CD's)
VA - Connelly (VA-11) goes from narrowly Bush to safely Kerry
WA - new CD Kerry, and Reichert (WA-8) goes from Kerry to Bush
WI - Duffy (WI-7) goes from Kerry to Bush

Can someone try CA and FL, not sure which CD's best match up?

Looks like the pro-Republican bent is reflected in a 2004 numbers.