US House Redistricting: West Virginia

[The Head Beagle]

[these maps weren't legal - deleted]

[Skill and Chance]

Is a D PVI district physically possible in WV?  I have been wondering about that.

[So the Heroes Fall]

WV prohibits county splits.

[The Head Beagle]

WV prohibits county splits.

Ah, well so much for the Charleston thing then.

[Sibboleth]

Not entirely sure how relevant this is to Braxton, but most of the larger mines in WV were shut in the 1980s as the industry shifted towards opencast (and I think smaller drift) mines, so the geography of current mining employment doesn't necessarily match up with what used to be. I know that Gassaway (one of the larger towns - though with less than 1,000 people now) used to be a minor railway centre, if that helps.

[muon2]

WV prohibits county splits.

The prohibition is in the WV Constitution. Article I section 4:

1-4.  Representatives to Congress.

     For the election of representatives to Congress, the state shall be divided into districts, corresponding in number with the representatives to which it may be entitled; which districts shall be formed of contiguous counties, and be compact.  Each district shall contain, as nearly as may be, an equal number of population, to be determined according to the rule prescribed in the constitution of the United States.

Compactness however is ill defined compared to contiguity. Thus current CD 2 stretching in a single band of counties is ok, since arguably it makes 1 and 3 compact.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The new map will probably look more like this:

[Gravis Marketing]

Shelley Moore Capito lives in Charleston, I think, so that puts her in the 3rd district.

WV does need to figure out what it's going to do with the panhandle. Tough to keep it in the 2nd and keep that link of counties. I wonder if they'd consider linking Charleston and Wheeling in a single district and putting Morgantown in with the panhandle.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Shelley Moore Capito lives in Charleston, I think, so that puts her in the 3rd district.

WV does need to figure out what it's going to do with the panhandle. Tough to keep it in the 2nd and keep that link of counties. I wonder if they'd consider linking Charleston and Wheeling in a single district and putting Morgantown in with the panhandle.

That's an interesting thought. McKinley lives in Wheeling, but since Democrats control redistricting, why should they care where the Republicans end up as long as it doesn't threaten Rahall? Something like this could very well happen:



Capito and McKinley are primaried in the blue district, and the green district may be more competitive than it looks. Oliverio received 55.19% of the two party vote in the portion of the green district currently in the the 1st.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Yeah I know Capito would be put in the same district as Rahall, but I highly doubt the Democrats who control the redistricting would care since Rahall would win. Besides Capito can just "move" anyway.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Yeah I know Capito would be put in the same district as Rahall, but I highly doubt the Democrats who control the redistricting would care since Rahall would win. Besides Capito can just "move" anyway.

That's quite a gamble, though. Capito is a moderate, and that part of West Virginia has seen the hardest trends toward the Republicans. While it's clear that Rahall has the advantage on paper, there's a good chance that Capito could knock him out, and then you're left with an all-Republican delegation.

[Nhoj]

There is a pretty good chance Capito runs for governor or maybe even senate anyways.

[Sibboleth]

That's quite a gamble, though. Capito is a moderate, and that part of West Virginia has seen the hardest trends toward the Republicans. While it's clear that Rahall has the advantage on paper, there's a good chance that Capito could knock him out, and then you're left with an all-Republican delegation.

Presidential voting patterns in WV aren't a good indicator of anything other than Presidential voting patterns; WV-3 is the most Democratic district of the three at all other levels and will remain so for the foreseeable future, although there has certainly been negative movement around Beckley.

[muon2]

The legislature probably won't have much choice. The map will have to be districts of whole counties that produce the most nearly equal population. Any other map would be subject to challenge.

[Sibboleth]

Worth pointing out that they didn't gerrymander Capito out when they had the chance before 2002.

[Sam Spade]

Worth pointing out that they didn't gerrymander Capito out when they had the chance before 2002.

Are you suggesting that they want her to stay there instead of doing something else (considering she was a freshman up in 2002)?  Or is it because WV Dems have such fond memories of Arch Moore? 

[muon2]

Worth pointing out that they didn't gerrymander Capito out when they had the chance before 2002.

Are you suggesting that they want her to stay there instead of doing something else (considering she was a freshman up in 2002)?  Or is it because WV Dems have such fond memories of Arch Moore? 

I contend that federal law requires nearly population as nearly equal as practicible. When that is combined with the state constitutional requirement of contiguous whole counties, then there will be an obligation to create a map that makes the three districts most equal, given the population of the counties. That generally takes partisan considerations out of the picture.

If there was no way to get close to equal population and a county split was required, then partisan considerations could take a front seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

According to DRA, the current WV-02 is over by about 30,000 people, while WV-01 is under by 10,000 and WV-03 by 20,000. The problem, of course, is the whole-county thing, since most of WV-02 is only one county wide.

[Verily]

Here's my best attempt at nearly equal population and no county splits. Capito will not be happy.

WV-01 is +534. WV-02 is -531. WV-03 is -4.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

That's quite a gamble, though. Capito is a moderate, and that part of West Virginia has seen the hardest trends toward the Republicans. While it's clear that Rahall has the advantage on paper, there's a good chance that Capito could knock him out, and then you're left with an all-Republican delegation.

Presidential voting patterns in WV aren't a good indicator of anything other than Presidential voting patterns; WV-3 is the most Democratic district of the three at all other levels and will remain so for the foreseeable future, although there has certainly been negative movement around Beckley.

Presidential voting patterns aren't really my biggest concern. What kind of opposition has Rahall faced in his career? I seriously doubt that he's faced off against anybody as formidable as Capito.

If you look at BRTD's map, WV-2 would also be a Republican stronghold, to the point where the GOP probably wouldn't have to worry about who runs there. Capito would be a top-tier candidate in their efforts to unseat Rahall. She's popular, she has huge name recognition, and her moderate positions will get her crossover support. Not to mention she is already an incumbent. If anyone can unseat Rahall, it's Capito. Of course, she has other options as well. She may explore a Senatorial or Gubernatorial bid if confronted with that map.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Capito is moderate on the wrong issues for that district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Without looking at partisanship/incumbent locations, here's the map I came up with (no county splits, equal populations). blue district is -633, green is +164, purple is +468. Also tried to make the districts as compact as possible, given the state's odd shape.



It came out quite similarly to Vazdul's map.

[Gravis Marketing]

Capito is moderate on the wrong issues for that district.

I wonder if she'd want to represent the poorest and most isolated parts of the state (and perhaps country), too.

[Vasall des Midas]

Drawing Capito in with Rahall is probably the best way to get her to take that risk and run for Senate or Governor.

The question is, would Democrats want that?

[jimrtex]

Without looking at partisanship/incumbent locations, here's the map I came up with (no county splits, equal populations). blue district is -633, green is +164, purple is +468. Also tried to make the districts as compact as possible, given the state's odd shape.



It came out quite similarly to Vazdul's map.

Any way to swap Huntington and Charleston?  It would make the green seat the Ohio River seat instead of pretending that it is the northwestern seat in a oddly shaped state.  Or would that have to come to far east further north, so it wouldn't really be a river seat.