US House Redistricting: West Virginia

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Doesn't really work; Charleston screws up the no-county-splits thing, since it's the biggest county and is in just the wrong spot.

[realisticidealist]

Any way to swap Huntington and Charleston?  It would make the green seat the Ohio River seat instead of pretending that it is the northwestern seat in a oddly shaped state.  Or would that have to come to far east further north, so it wouldn't really be a river seat.

How about this? I got great population equality out of it, although the green district is slightly less compact.

[jimrtex]

Any way to swap Huntington and Charleston?  It would make the green seat the Ohio River seat instead of pretending that it is the northwestern seat in a oddly shaped state.  Or would that have to come to far east further north, so it wouldn't really be a river seat.

How about this? I got great population equality out of it, although the green district is slightly less compact.

I think it has good thematic compactness:

Ohio River
Charleston and Coalfields
Monongahela and Eastern Panhandle

[Vasall des Midas]

It's probably as balanced as you'll get on these estimates, and despite the issue with Nicholas County it's not horribly noncompact.

It also pits Moore Capito into an uphill battle against Rahall, or perhaps rather into a statewide run, and probably leaves the GOP slight favorites in both north seats, with McKinley running in the green one.

[Lunar]

Drawing Capito in with Rahall is probably the best way to get her to take that risk and run for Senate or Governor.

The question is, would Democrats want that?

I'd have to question whether someone that risk-adverse when it comes to political ambition is really worth appeasing.   By the time she figures out that the map disfavors her and acts, she won't have as easy of a time clearing the Republican primary for statewide office [and given her moderate profile...] and that route becomes increasingly perilous too.

[Jbrase]

How likely is it they will stick with a map similar to what they already have? A northern seat, a southern seat, and a seat that stretches though the center across the state.

[Bacon King]

How likely is it they will stick with a map similar to what they already have? A northern seat, a southern seat, and a seat that stretches though the center across the state.

If you read this thread, not very likely. WV is required by it's state law to not split counties unless absolutely necessary for population equality. The middle district is overpopulated relative to the other two so has to lose territory, but is only a single county wide through most of the state so making it smaller but with the same area isn't really possible.

[Sibboleth]

In any case the current setup was only drawn to screw Staggers in 1992. He's only 59, btw.

[Bacon King]

Oh hey, actually, you can keep the districts pretty close to the same with only a few minor adjustments:

Gilmer from CD 1 to CD 2.
Lewis from CD 2 to CD 1.

Putnam from CD 2 to CD 3.
Nicholas and Webster from CD 3 to CD 2.

That puts CD 1 at +223, CD 2 at +413, and CD 3 at -637.

Don't know what effect that'd have on the 3rd district, though; Putnam has a lot of GOP votes.

[Sibboleth]

Democrats from the southern mining counties won't want Putnam (Charleston outer suburbia) in their district.

[jimrtex]

HB 2968 before the WV legislature would provide for a non-binding referendum on the secession of Morgan, Berkeley and Jefferson counties to Virginia.  This could cause a loss of a district to the remainder of West Virginia and an additional one Virginia, if the apportionment would be adjusted.

[Verily]

HB 2968 before the WV legislature would provide for a non-binding referendum on the secession of Morgan, Berkeley and Jefferson counties to Virginia.  This could cause a loss of a district to the remainder of West Virginia and an additional one Virginia, if the apportionment would be adjusted.

Presumably the apportionment wouldn't be changed, since what matters is the state population at the time of the Census. Would be an intriguing Constitutional question, anyway. Is this being seriously considered?

[jimrtex]

HB 2968 before the WV legislature would provide for a non-binding referendum on the secession of Morgan, Berkeley and Jefferson counties to Virginia.  This could cause a loss of a district to the remainder of West Virginia and an additional one Virginia, if the apportionment would be adjusted.

Presumably the apportionment wouldn't be changed, since what matters is the state population at the time of the Census. Would be an intriguing Constitutional question, anyway. Is this being seriously considered?

It was referred to committee.  The proposal was from a representative from Berkeley.  I don't know it was serious, or rhetorical - Charleston pays us no never mind.

[MilesC56]

This is the best plan I came up with. I tried to keep the shape of the districts similar to their current forms.




CD1 (OLIVE colored for OLIVErio!)- I designed this district so that Oliverio would win a rematch against McKinley. I added Calhoun county, from CD 2, which seems to be a bellwether county (it went 52-44 for Manchin); it would have probably pushed Oliverio over the top last year.

CD2 (Red) This gets slightly more Democratic. It trades out Putnam county (which voted for Raese) in exchange for Nicholas and Webster, both of which Manchin won easily. Still safe for Capito, but when she steps down, a Dixiecrat would have a good chance here.

CD3 (Purple) This trades out Webster and Nicholas, as I said, and gets Putnam. Safe for Rahall, but another coal-friendly Dixiecrat will likely win here when he retires.

[Bacon King]

Democrats from the southern mining counties won't want Putnam (Charleston outer suburbia) in their district.

[MilesC56]

Democrats from the southern mining counties won't want Putnam (Charleston outer suburbia) in their district.

This is the best plan I could get that keeps Putnam in CD2.

It would make CD1 slightly harder for Oliverio to win, so I'd rather go with my first plan.

[Vasall des Midas]

Nobody seems to have presented a north/east/southwest type map yet.



We've seen better balanced seats though, this one is -711/+1502/-792.

I kind of like how Nick Rahall gets the most Republican seat. (58.1 TPP, vs 57.5 for McWhatever and 54.4 for Capito.)

[MilesC56]

Interesting idea, but I don't think the Legislature would do that to Rahall...

[Vasall des Midas]

Damn contiguity requirement.

Give Rahall McDowell, Mingo, Wyoming and Logan in comparison to here, shed Grant, Randolph, Barbour, Upshur, Webster and Nicholas to blue, and give Capito Wood, Ritchie and (from purple) Clay, and you have a noticeably more Democratic seat for Rahall in the same basic setup and the lowest population deviation I've seen so far: +29/+2/-32. But no contiguity. Tucker's still in Rahall's district.

[MilesC56]

This is the bets map I've come up with.
This should satisfy Capito and Rahall while helping Oliverio.



WV-01: Sheds Mineral county (54-43 Raese) in favor of adding Wirt, Calhoun and Roane (which all went for Manchin by about his statewide 53-43 margin). Oliverio should have an easier time here.

WV-02: 'Gets Mineral from the 1st and gives Mason to the 3rd. Capito should approve.

WV-03: Stays the same but adds Mason (61-36 Manchin) and thus gets marginally more Democratic.


Deviations:

WV-01: +577
WV-02: +946
WV-03: -1524

[Devils30]

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

[MilesC56]

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

Ostensibly, yes. But don't forget that the Democratic bench is very deep in WV; lots of Dixiecrats are still around. The Republicans have nobody.

[Sibboleth]

Dixiecrats? Oh, no, no, no... something else.

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

No particular reason to assume that; the only part of the district where recent (downballot) voting patterns have been at all ominous is the Beckley area.

[MilesC56]

Dixiecrats? Oh, no, no, no... something else.

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

No particular reason to assume that; the only part of the district where recent (downballot) voting patterns have been at all ominous is the Beckley area.

Well,  not Dixiecrats, per se. What I meant was their are still a lot of white conservative Democrats in WV.

[Kevinstat]

Nobody seems to have presented a north/east/southwest type map yet.



We've seen better balanced seats though, this one is -711/+1502/-792.

I get -711/+2702/-1992 (or rather -710.67/+2702.33/-1991.67 the way I calculate it - I'm a mathematical purist).  And I double checked districts 2 and 3.

Damn contiguity requirement.

Give Rahall McDowell, Mingo, Wyoming and Logan in comparison to here, shed Grant, Randolph, Barbour, Upshur, Webster and Nicholas to blue, and give Capito Wood, Ritchie and (from purple) Clay, and you have a noticeably more Democratic seat for Rahall in the same basic setup and the lowest population deviation I've seen so far: +29/+2/-32. But no contiguity. Tucker's still in Rahall's district.

Upshur and Barbour counties are already in blue in the above map that you seemed to be referring to.  And with the other changes, I get -33323.67/+2.33/+33321.33 .  Moving Tucker to blue and making all three districts contiguous yeilds -26182.67/+2.33/+26180.33 .