US House Redistricting: West Virginia

[Miles]

This is the best plan I came up with. I tried to keep the shape of the districts similar to their current forms.




CD1 (OLIVE colored for OLIVErio!)- I designed this district so that Oliverio would win a rematch against McKinley. I added Calhoun county, from CD 2, which seems to be a bellwether county (it went 52-44 for Manchin); it would have probably pushed Oliverio over the top last year.

CD2 (Red) This gets slightly more Democratic. It trades out Putnam county (which voted for Raese) in exchange for Nicholas and Webster, both of which Manchin won easily. Still safe for Capito, but when she steps down, a Dixiecrat would have a good chance here.

CD3 (Purple) This trades out Webster and Nicholas, as I said, and gets Putnam. Safe for Rahall, but another coal-friendly Dixiecrat will likely win here when he retires.

[Miles]

Democrats from the southern mining counties won't want Putnam (Charleston outer suburbia) in their district.

This is the best plan I could get that keeps Putnam in CD2.

It would make CD1 slightly harder for Oliverio to win, so I'd rather go with my first plan.

[Miles]

Interesting idea, but I don't think the Legislature would do that to Rahall...

[Miles]

This is the bets map I've come up with.
This should satisfy Capito and Rahall while helping Oliverio.



WV-01: Sheds Mineral county (54-43 Raese) in favor of adding Wirt, Calhoun and Roane (which all went for Manchin by about his statewide 53-43 margin). Oliverio should have an easier time here.

WV-02: 'Gets Mineral from the 1st and gives Mason to the 3rd. Capito should approve.

WV-03: Stays the same but adds Mason (61-36 Manchin) and thus gets marginally more Democratic.


Deviations:

WV-01: +577
WV-02: +946
WV-03: -1524

[Miles]

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

Ostensibly, yes. But don't forget that the Democratic bench is very deep in WV; lots of Dixiecrats are still around. The Republicans have nobody.

[Miles]

Dixiecrats? Oh, no, no, no... something else.

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

No particular reason to assume that; the only part of the district where recent (downballot) voting patterns have been at all ominous is the Beckley area.

Well,  not Dixiecrats, per se. What I meant was their are still a lot of white conservative Democrats in WV.

[Miles]

Interestingly, State Senate Majority Leader John Unger thinks they might have to split counties this time around, and also thinks that it won't violate the state constitution.

Just like Arkansas...

[Miles]

Interestingly, State Senate Majority Leader John Unger thinks they might have to split counties this time around, and also thinks that it won't violate the state constitution.

Just like Arkansas...

In Arkansas, it is by state tradition. In West Virginia, its a state constitutional provision.

They're probably just trying to pack CD-2 hard.

I know the distinctions. But still.

I agree. They'll likely make WV-02 the GOP votes sink to weaken McKinley.

[Miles]

This is what I came up with from reading that article:



I split Harrison, Putnam and Monongalia.

They could still end up with a 2-1 Republican delegation; the panhandle district could fall to a Republican, though Oliverio would live there and he's a good campaigner.

[Miles]

I feel like this is Arkansas all over again.

This could be a dummymander....

I feel like they're screwing themselves just to spite Capito and McKinley.

They should have kept Taylor, Harrison, Barbour and Tucker in the 1st; they all voted for Oliverio last year.  Instead, the 1st reaches down to take in Jackson, Roane, Wirt and Calhoun; all of those counties have been voting for Capito.

Sigh...I hope this isn't the final plan.

[Miles]

Just so that we have a picture of the map on this thread:




Here are the 2010 Senate numbers:

Manchin/Raese

WV01- 54.5/43.4
WV-02- 50.5/47.7
WV-03- 57.1/40.9

[Miles]

One can only hope that deliberately violating the State's Constitution backfires on the then governor whom signs the bill.  When state courts insist on enforcing the Constitution,  Republicans will have a governor to veto the next bill the legislature tries. That would be the dummymander to end all dummymanders.

Meh. If the court decides this violates the constitution, then there isn't much the Republicans can do to hurt the Democrats anyway as they will be just as constrained by the constitutional language as the Democrats are. (And you are making a rather grandiose prediction that there will be a Republican governor and state legislature--dubious at best.) I think this does violate the constitution, but the WV Democrats really have nothing to lose by trying.

And BSB doesn't know for a fact that the Governor will be a Republican.

'Another one of his silly conjectures.

[Miles]

Kinda lame. My map gets the same result without splitting counties and while putting Capito surely in WV-02.

I agree; your map is better.

[Miles]

Putting Putnam into WV-03 is dumb.

Why? Isn't the pay-off for making WV-01 more competitive worth it?

If anything, WV-01 is now less competitive.

[Miles]

Another trifecta goes to waste...

I would argue that this is better than the original plan.

Since the 1st stayed the same, we're still only 1400 votes away from flipping it...

[Miles]

Mike Oliverio had a say in the redistricting process.

http://blogs.wvgazette.com/squawkbox/2011/08/04/oliverio-keeps-eye-on-redistricting-session/

I talked to him a week ago and he didn't tell me any plans about running in 2012.

I do think he'll run again though; McKinley isn't entrenched yet and Oliverio would have stronger Manchin coattails this time around.

[Miles]

Yeah, he's fairly conservative, but I'd say he's pretty close to Joe Manchin, ideologically. 

[Miles]

He said he'd vote for "whomever his party chooses as its leader."

I guess that would be Pelosi, since she won the majority of the Democratic caucus.

[Miles]

Good, they played it safe.

[Miles]

I still think they should have been more aggressive. This is one of what, three states where Democrats have the trifecta? They already blew it in Arkansas. The Democrats had nothing to lose by reconfiguring the two northern districts in an attempt to unseat McKinley. What a waste.

Oliverio knows he can win WV-01. He had input. If he wanted the district changed, they would have been more 'aggressive.'

[Miles]

Looks like we'll have a new map. A three-judge panel ruled that the population devation of the enacted map was too great, even though it keeps all counties whole.

[Miles]

http://www.dailymail.com/News/201201040033

The Cooper plan looks really solid for McKinley.

Yep. Manchin only won that CD1 by 50-46; I think the current CD1 is was about the same as his statewide 53-44.

[Miles]

I hate to say this, but I think WV will be 2-1 R in 2012.

Oh well, other than the House delegation, Republicans don't have anything in WV.

[Miles]

Miles: Yea, a theres a chance of that. You guys can have Shelley Moore Capito's seat, as long as I can have McKinley
BRTD: Good point

Well, Mike Oliverio is a friend of mine, so I kinda wanna see McKinley defeated

I do think the WV-02 on the most recent map could easily flip without Capito though.

[Miles]

The 2008 numbers are nice to have for WV, though I think Manchin/Raese would have been more useful.

Out of curiosity, what would a Republican gerrymander look like?  

Probably actually similar to RBH's Democratic map.

For a solid 2-1, I'd probably pack Democrats tighter into CD3 while splitting Marion and Monongalia counties between CD1 and CD2. CDs 1 and 2 would each need to be at least 57% McCain, IMO.



CD1- 58.5/39.9 McCain
CD2- 57.3/41.1 McCain
CD3- 51.0/47.2 McCain

For 3-0, I'd guess some kind of vertical baconmander could work for the GOP.