US House Redistricting: West Virginia

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not entirely sure how relevant this is to Braxton, but most of the larger mines in WV were shut in the 1980s as the industry shifted towards opencast (and I think smaller drift) mines, so the geography of current mining employment doesn't necessarily match up with what used to be. I know that Gassaway (one of the larger towns - though with less than 1,000 people now) used to be a minor railway centre, if that helps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's quite a gamble, though. Capito is a moderate, and that part of West Virginia has seen the hardest trends toward the Republicans. While it's clear that Rahall has the advantage on paper, there's a good chance that Capito could knock him out, and then you're left with an all-Republican delegation.

Presidential voting patterns in WV aren't a good indicator of anything other than Presidential voting patterns; WV-3 is the most Democratic district of the three at all other levels and will remain so for the foreseeable future, although there has certainly been negative movement around Beckley.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth pointing out that they didn't gerrymander Capito out when they had the chance before 2002.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In any case the current setup was only drawn to screw Staggers in 1992. He's only 59, btw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Democrats from the southern mining counties won't want Putnam (Charleston outer suburbia) in their district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dixiecrats? Oh, no, no, no... something else.

The dems are on borrowed time in wv-03 so im not sure I'd try to strengthen it much.

No particular reason to assume that; the only part of the district where recent (downballot) voting patterns have been at all ominous is the Beckley area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe Harley Staggers will try a comeback? That's basically his old district they've drawn. Putnam is a surprise, but I suppose that's balanced out by adding southern Kanawha county.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This was an interesting example of how things often end up working; a less than ideal status quo (the current map was drawn to screw a particular incumbent when the state lost a seat two decades ago and makes no real sense) is kept because any alternative are unpalatable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I prefer it when WV grudge matches are kept mostly to primaries (Rahall/Hechler was a good one), but that would do as a substitute.