NH-Magellan Strategies: Obama the heavy favorite in the NH DEM Primary

[Tender Branson]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

77% Approve
14% Disapprove

If the 2012 Democrat Presidential primary election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton?

59% Obama
28% Clinton

If the 2012 Democrat Presidential primary election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama and Howard Dean?

78% Obama
10% Dean

If the 2012 Democrat Presidential primary election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders?

79% Obama
  8% Sanders

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 1,002N autodial survey of likely Democrat primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the Democrat Presidential primary in the state of New Hampshire. The interviews were conducted December 14th and 15th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.09% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon Democrat Presidential Primary turnout demographics from the 2008 and 2004 election cycles.

http://www.unionleader.com/uploads/media-items/2010/December/NH%202012%20Democrat%20Presidential%20Primary%20Survey%20Topline%20Results%20121410%5B16%5D.pdf

[Tender Branson]

OMGZ !

Obama is in so much trouble within the party ... !

[Keystone Phil]

OMGZ !

Obama is in so much trouble within the party ... !

Well, to be fair, this is just one state and it's being polled by an unreliable Republican firm. 

[Poundingtherock]

He is if Sanders goes third-party.  If the 8% who support Sanders in the primary are willing to vote for him in the general as a third-party, Obama would be in serious trouble as the Republican will win at least 8% of Democrats as well.

[Tender Branson]

OMGZ !

Obama is in so much trouble within the party ... !

Well, to be fair, this is just one state and it's being polled by an unreliable Republican firm. 

Yeah, very unreliable:

In our final poll of the New Hampshire Republican primary for US Senate, we find Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne by 4 points, 35% to 31%.  Bill Binnie is third with 14%, Jim Bender with 10%, the generic “another candidate” receives 3%, and 7% are undecided. 

Final results:

38% Kelly Ayotte
37% Lamontagne
14% Binnie
  9% Bender
  2% Others

[Keystone Phil]

OMGZ !

Obama is in so much trouble within the party ... !

Well, to be fair, this is just one state and it's being polled by an unreliable Republican firm. 

Yeah, very unreliable:

In our final poll of the New Hampshire Republican primary for US Senate, we find Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne by 4 points, 35% to 31%.  Bill Binnie is third with 14%, Jim Bender with 10%, the generic “another candidate” receives 3%, and 7% are undecided. 

Final results:

38% Kelly Ayotte
37% Lamontagne
14% Binnie
  9% Bender
  2% Others

They're considered unreliable in General election polls so I'm thinking, as a Republican firm, they probably aren't that great for Democratic primaries.

[Tender Branson]

OMGZ !

Obama is in so much trouble within the party ... !

Well, to be fair, this is just one state and it's being polled by an unreliable Republican firm. 

Yeah, very unreliable:

In our final poll of the New Hampshire Republican primary for US Senate, we find Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne by 4 points, 35% to 31%.  Bill Binnie is third with 14%, Jim Bender with 10%, the generic “another candidate” receives 3%, and 7% are undecided. 

Final results:

38% Kelly Ayotte
37% Lamontagne
14% Binnie
  9% Bender
  2% Others

They're considered unreliable in General election polls so I'm thinking, as a Republican firm, they probably aren't that great for Democratic primaries.

They are not more unreliable than Rasmussen. They got the LA & DE race right, like Rasmussen. But they blew CO Governor, just like Rasmussen.

The only bad thing is that they did not poll enough General Election races to make a fair analysis.

[Poundingtherock]

They nailed the KY-Sen primary as well.  I think Magellan got TX-Gov primary right as well. PPP was the big loser in the Texas primary.

[Gravis Marketing]

Phil, do you think this poll is way off and that Obama's in trouble with Democrats?

[Ben Romney]

he is in trouble

59% for an inc President are horrible!!!
Run Hillary Run!!!

[Poundingtherock]

I agree Hillary2012.

She should run as an indy and pull a Murkowski.

[Secretary Polnut]

he is in trouble

59% for an inc President are horrible!!!
Run Hillary Run!!!

... you know what?

It's not even worth it any more.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming that Hillary still wants to be the president, let's consider how she would get to the White House.  Here are her three options, depending on how Obama does:

1. Run for the open seat in 2016 if Obama gets a second term
2. Run against the Republican incumbent in 2016 if Obama loses
3. Primary Obama and try to win the general in 2012

The best case scenario for her to win the presidency is #1, where she doesn't have to run against any incumbents.  Therefore, if she wants to run again, she would want Obama to be re-elected if at all possible because #1 is preferable to both #2 and #3.  Of course, Obama could be very unlikely to win re-election as of late 2011.  

If this is the case, Hillary Clinton would weigh options 2 and 3.  We also have to remember that if Obama is doing badly enough to lose a primary to Clinton, the national environment in 2012 is probably very anti-Dem to begin with.  In a scenario where Obama is very unpopular, any Democrat would be a severe underdog in the general election.

  But while she knows the environment is strongly against her in 2012, she does not know whether the Republican incumbent will be loved or despised in 2016.  It could be another bad cycle for Democrats, but it could also be a very good year if the GOP incumbent is unpopular.  So because she knows that she faces almost impossible odds in 2012 even if she wins the primary, running against the Republican incumbent in 2016 would always be a better strategy for her.

There is no sensible reason for her to choose #3 over #2, unless Obama is still pretty strong and she specifically wants to ruin his re-election bid.      

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

he is in trouble

59% for an inc President are horrible!!!
Run Hillary Run!!!

You need a life.

[Secretary Polnut]

he is in trouble

59% for an inc President are horrible!!!
Run Hillary Run!!!

You need a life.

A clue, then a life

[GPORTER]

Am I stupid or is 28% a lot for Clinton in the polls?

[Tender Branson]

Am I stupid or is 28% a lot for Clinton in the polls?

I´d say the first part of your sentence is closer to reality, as Clinton actually won NH in 2008.

[Poundingtherock]

Hillary won around 39% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, so with 28%, she's performing at 11% less than what she won in 2008.

At best, she could win 40% of the vote in the primary against Obama because not all of her supporters from 2008 would vote for her against the incumbent.

[GPORTER]

Am I stupid or is 28% a lot for Clinton in the polls?

I´d say the first part of your sentence is closer to reality, as Clinton actually won NH in 2008.

The reason I thought it might be kinda significant is because its against an incumbent President and around a year before the aucutal primary would take place.