When will America have a third party president?

[AmericanPatriot83]

Sooner than people think. I believe by 2020 we will either that or the 2 parties we have now will have crashed and burned. I look forward to that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right answer is : nobody knows that, and only the future will give us an answer. It's certainly not as unlikely as some people tend to believe.

But if you look back to past Third Party bids, you might consider that they suffered more from bad luck and/or bad candidates than by structural disadvantages. Perot stupidly dropped out and lost 20 points because of that. Anderson suffered from Reagan's late surge. Wallace's segregationist stances prevented him to gain ground outside the South. In 1912, hadn't the GOP been in power for 16 years, it's possible to imagine Wilson performing less well and thus Roosevelt having stood a chance. Also, hadn't populists taken over the democratic party in 1896, it is also possible to imagine a scenario with a Populist party gaining ground in the country and finally acceeding to Presidency.

To put it clearly : it's not because something has been in a way for a very long time that it will always be in that way. Also look at this article from Nate Silver about the eventuality of a Third Party bid in 2012 and its probability to succeed.

[leatherface]

That depends on several factors, one if there is a credible option for the launch of a third-party bid, at this period in time, there is no viable option or even a groundswell, that is, if you factor in the tea-party, which I believe is a rump of the Republicans, but then you had the Dixiecrats in 1948, Charlie Crist is someone to consider but he isn't all that credible when you consider he became an independent when it seemed likely that he was going to be handed his hat by Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary in Florida, not an earth shattering reason to be hold

[perdedor]

I can't say when, but I see both of the major parties splitting eventually which could lead to a developed four party system composed of a far-right, tea party style party, a center-right party in the mold of Nixon and Bush I, a centrist party who's platform would be remnant of the DLC, and a center-left party that would be more or less the same as the modern day Democratic party (unfortunately, the far-left will never have serious representation in this country). This could very well happen within our lifetime. To an extent its already happening to the Republicans.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

If Bloomberg runs in 1996, I see him as more of a Ross Perot than someone that's going to lead a lasting political movement. He would get whatever his number is in the electoral vote, then someone would try ot be his successor to the Centrist or Moderate movement or whatever, and they would fail, and it would go down like the Reform Party.

[5280]

I believe Canada has an established 3rd and 4th party system going, but that's besides the point.  My point is, the US it way too polarized and strange.

[Dgov]

I believe Canada has an established 3rd and 4th party system going, but that's besides the point.  My point is, the US it way too polarized and strange.

I think they did, but it kind of merged into a 2-party system as the two Conservative parties united and the Two Liberal parties are kind of united.

Unless you count the seat-less Greens or the Quebec independence block, which are basically like US 3rd parties.

[TomC]

Not soon enough

[Einzige Mk. II]

Not soon enough

[Хahar 🤔]

I believe Canada has an established 3rd and 4th party system going, but that's besides the point.  My point is, the US it way too polarized and strange.

I think they did, but it kind of merged into a 2-party system as the two Conservative parties united and the Two Liberal parties are kind of united.

Unless you count the seat-less Greens or the Quebec independence block, which are basically like US 3rd parties.

What "Two Liberal parties" are you referring to?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I believe Canada has an established 3rd and 4th party system going, but that's besides the point.  My point is, the US it way too polarized and strange.

Besides that, the way you win an election is based on electoral votes, not on popular support, so that prevents any major third party uprisings, and the fact that they never take states (last time was 1968), leads to people not voting for them. If it was based merely on popular vote, then third parties would feel more encouraged.

[Хahar 🤔]

People, Duverger's law is a thing.

[redcommander]

I believe Canada has an established 3rd and 4th party system going, but that's besides the point.  My point is, the US it way too polarized and strange.

I think they did, but it kind of merged into a 2-party system as the two Conservative parties united and the Two Liberal parties are kind of united.

Unless you count the seat-less Greens or the Quebec independence block, which are basically like US 3rd parties.

What "Two Liberal parties" are you referring to?

I think Dgov is referring to the Liberal and NDP parties. The two conservative parties would be the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance which merged in the early 2000's.

[Napoleon]

The New Democratic Party is a social democratic party. The Liberal Party is a liberal party. The U.S. Democratic Party is a big tent that would include both, but someone like me would be very out of place in the NDP yet very fitting with the Liberals. We have to remember to look beyond the confines of or own system when discussing other nations' politics.

[Хahar 🤔]

I believe Canada has an established 3rd and 4th party system going, but that's besides the point.  My point is, the US it way too polarized and strange.

I think they did, but it kind of merged into a 2-party system as the two Conservative parties united and the Two Liberal parties are kind of united.

Unless you count the seat-less Greens or the Quebec independence block, which are basically like US 3rd parties.

What "Two Liberal parties" are you referring to?

I think Dgov is referring to the Liberal and NDP parties. The two conservative parties would be the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance which merged in the early 2000's.

Obviously the PCs and the Alliance were both conservative (they had the word in their names, even), but the NDP is a socialist opposition party and the Liberal Party is a centrist government party. They're not remotely similar.