swing states...that are swing states no longer?
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  swing states...that are swing states no longer?
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Author Topic: swing states...that are swing states no longer?  (Read 3594 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: November 20, 2004, 10:59:58 PM »

what 'swing states' have ceased being swing states?

missouri is the most obvious example.  it is pretty solidily republican now.  take a look out the map of missouri since 88, the red is rapidly disappearing and the blues are becoming darker in color.
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No more McShame
FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2004, 11:02:25 PM »

Washington for the other side despite the apparent victory of Dino Rossi in the governor race.  He ran as a moderate and probably won't be the type of candidate that could get a national Republican nomination for President.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2004, 01:03:56 AM »

Dino Rossi ran as a nice guy, Gregoire ran as an ice queen. They didn't even run on politics. They just ran on Gregoire screwing up as much as humanly possible. No major scandals either. The only thing remotely interesting about this election was the results.

I'd say Washington and Delaware (rarely mentioned) for Democrats and West Virginia for Republicans.
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Shira
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2004, 05:50:19 AM »

Despite the narrow margin, I think that NH (as well as OR) has become "Permanently Blue".
It's the Geography.
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Ben.
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2004, 06:34:51 AM »

Dino Rossi ran as a nice guy, Gregoire ran as an ice queen. They didn't even run on politics. They just ran on Gregoire screwing up as much as humanly possible. No major scandals either. The only thing remotely interesting about this election was the results.

I'd say Washington and Delaware (rarely mentioned) for Democrats and West Virginia for Republicans.

WA and DE for the Dems easily... for the GOP states like TN, LA and AR (all voted for Clinton) are  becoming more Republican but that could be a product of the campaign and the candidates in 2000/04... its really hard to say WA and DE are pretty obvious for the Dems and despite the big Bush wins in WV and MO a moderate Dem would put both in play where as a moderate Republican would not necessarily put WA and De in play… just my two cents.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2004, 06:49:21 AM »

It all depends on the candidates and what issues they run on.

Here's a useful analogy: Gene Taylor (D-MS) v Bill Weld (R-NY/MA)

Or we could pick two new(ish) Governers:

Schwartzeng Arnie (R-CA) v Manchin (D-WV)

Someone make maps of those two races...
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Ben.
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2004, 07:02:53 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2004, 07:07:40 AM by Ben. »

It all depends on the candidates and what issues they run on.

Here's a useful analogy: Gene Taylor (D-MS) v Bill Weld (R-NY/MA)

Or we could pick two new(ish) Governers:

Schwartzeng Arnie (R-CA) v Manchin (D-WV)

Someone make maps of those two races...


Taylor vs Weld



Arnie vs Manchin (on the basis of positions rather than personality Smiley )

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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2004, 07:22:26 AM »

Like others have said, I think the geography is making the Northwest and Northeast more Democratic, whereas the South, Upper South and Lower Midwest is becoming more Republican.
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nini2287
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2004, 04:54:40 PM »

West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Washington and Oregon.

You could also throw in Hawaii, North Carolina, Tennessee and Louisiana, but I don't know if they were ever "swing" per se.
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Erc
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2004, 01:40:53 AM »

New Hampshire won't vote for a Bush-type character.  But it should vote pretty overwhelmingly for a Republican who's moderate on social / foreign policy issues.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2004, 05:19:19 AM »

New Hampshire won't vote for a Bush-type character.  But it should vote pretty overwhelmingly for a Republican who's moderate on social / foreign policy issues.

My point exactly
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2004, 12:02:13 PM »

LA was a swing-ish state in 2000 and in the beginning of 2004. That's the most obvious example, considering Bush's margin of victory...
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opebo
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« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2004, 12:12:11 PM »

New Hampshire won't vote for a Bush-type character.  But it should vote pretty overwhelmingly for a Republican who's moderate on social / foreign policy issues.

There is almost no chance of such a moderate being nominated for the Presidency by the Republican Party.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2004, 01:25:26 PM »

Swing states only have meaning in a close election, I consider swing states to be those states that are within 2% of Bush's winning 2.9% margin. 

Thus there were only 4 swing states OH, NV, IA, and NM, and Bush won them all.

If one wants to be really generous, one could include all states within 4% of Bush's margin, this only adds WI, FL, and CO.

Since 2008 will be the first wide open election without a party incumbent (President or VP) running since 1952, I expect 2008 to be all about OH.
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danwxman
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2004, 02:54:15 PM »

Washington and possibly Oregon and West Virginia.
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phk
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« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2004, 03:27:01 PM »

Washington, Oregon, West Virginia (a stretch but maybe Minnesota and Wisconsin, as GOP picked up 3% Nationwide; Bush still lost them)
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2004, 06:45:43 PM »

The Democrats should give up on WV, MO, LA, and AR.  The Republcians should let go of ME, MN, WA, and OR.  I don't think MI is a swing state either
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