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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Washington  (Read 30436 times)
muon2
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« Reply #200 on: March 13, 2011, 08:28:13 am »


*I and brittain, and others, feel that communities with minimal commercial ties that nonetheless have similar political interests (through shared economic and demographic characteristics) are more reasonable to put together in a district than communities with some few commercial ties but few or no shared political interests, while Sounder and cinyc, and others, seem to feel the opposite. All of this assumes geographic neutrality, of course, since in either case we're cutting across a navigable but remote pass through the Cascades.
You either misunderstand or misrepresent our position.

It is not that going across the Snoqualmie Pass is great, but that splitting of Yakima or the Tri-Cities is worse.  While you claim to be putting together "communities" with similar interests you don't recognize that you are splitting a community.

By drawing a line along the Cascade crest you are claiming that there is no community of interest between King and Kittitas.  But when you draw a line through Yakima that is just a boundary line.  I claim that there is a stronger community of interest within Yakima that you are ignoring.  Now if you could explain why part of Yakima has strong ties with Vancouver, while the other has strong ties with Spokane or the Tri-Cities, I can understand why you advocate splitting the county, and perhaps even the city.

The reason that Chelan County was split off from Kittitas was because during winter people had to travel through Seattle or Spokane (where the railroads met) in order to get to the courthouse in Ellensburg.  With development of I-90 over the Snoqualmie Pass it is relative easy to get to Ellensburg from Seattle.  We know that traffic at the Kittitas-Grant line is half of that at of the Kittitas-King line.  So even if people are not commuting, they are visiting their parents who have retired, or to a 2nd home in the mountains.  And even in 2000, 8% of workers who resided in Kittitas worked in King County.

If we were to agree that a split of Yakima is not a good idea, and a district over the Snoqualmie Pass is not a good idea, let's try this:

Eastern Washington plus Skamania and Clark are apportioned 3 districts, while the remainder of the state is apportioned 7 districts.

So:

Vancouver-Yakima: Clark, Skamania, Yakima.

Spokane-Northeast: Spokane and its 4 neighbors + Ferry and Okanogan

Tri-Cities-Transcascadia-Palouse: The rest of eastern Washington.

And since we've accepted the idea of not splitting counties:

West: Thurston, Lewis, Cowlitz, Pacific, Grays Harbor, Mason, Jefferson, Clallam

King+Pierce (4 districts):  

Tacoma-Pierce West

Seattle

King East

King South-Pierce East

Snohomish

Puget Sound-Northwest:  Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan, Kitsap


I took a similar approach when I drew my map. Rather than start with separate districts, I looked at groupings of districts. That was especially true for the three eastern/southern districts.

I looked at different combinations on the west side to bring the three up to the correct population. A plan that excluded Kittitas from the e/s-3 was going to create the political effect of putting Kittitas at a disadvantage by being a small minority of a district. Keeping the east intact and running to the I-5 corridor set up more politically balanced districts. Then it became a question of how to best link the two sides without splitting any city.
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« Reply #201 on: March 13, 2011, 07:18:04 pm »
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I'm kind of confused by something.  I just compiled Seattle precinct registered voter counts, versus 18+ Census population.  Most of it makes sense, but several wealthy neighborhoods have 100%+ registration rates.  One precinct has 426 people over eighteen and 506 registered voters.  Another supposedly had 98.8% of its 18+ voters cast a ballot in 2010, which suggests to me that it's not all people who've moved but not been marked inactive.  What's going on with that?  Is there some reason the Census would the 18+ count would underestimate (not overestimate) eligible voters?
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« Reply #202 on: March 13, 2011, 08:04:33 pm »
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I'm kind of confused by something.  I just compiled Seattle precinct registered voter counts, versus 18+ Census population.  Most of it makes sense, but several wealthy neighborhoods have 100%+ registration rates.  One precinct has 426 people over eighteen and 506 registered voters.  Another supposedly had 98.8% of its 18+ voters cast a ballot in 2010, which suggests to me that it's not all people who've moved but not been marked inactive.  What's going on with that?  Is there some reason the Census would the 18+ count would underestimate (not overestimate) eligible voters?

In Washington everyone votes by mail anyway, right? I'd assume that means college students are more likely to still vote at home rather than at school, so it's possibly precincts with a lot of kids who are away from college (and would be counted at college for the census) but vote at home.
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« Reply #203 on: March 13, 2011, 09:05:04 pm »
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I'm kind of confused by something.  I just compiled Seattle precinct registered voter counts, versus 18+ Census population.  Most of it makes sense, but several wealthy neighborhoods have 100%+ registration rates.  One precinct has 426 people over eighteen and 506 registered voters.  Another supposedly had 98.8% of its 18+ voters cast a ballot in 2010, which suggests to me that it's not all people who've moved but not been marked inactive.  What's going on with that?  Is there some reason the Census would the 18+ count would underestimate (not overestimate) eligible voters?

Where/how do eligible overseas voters vote in Washington State?
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« Reply #204 on: March 13, 2011, 09:48:29 pm »
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*I and brittain, and others, feel that communities with minimal commercial ties that nonetheless have similar political interests (through shared economic and demographic characteristics) are more reasonable to put together in a district than communities with some few commercial ties but few or no shared political interests, while Sounder and cinyc, and others, seem to feel the opposite. All of this assumes geographic neutrality, of course, since in either case we're cutting across a navigable but remote pass through the Cascades.
You either misunderstand or misrepresent our position.

It is not that going across the Snoqualmie Pass is great, but that splitting of Yakima or the Tri-Cities is worse.  While you claim to be putting together "communities" with similar interests you don't recognize that you are splitting a community.

By drawing a line along the Cascade crest you are claiming that there is no community of interest between King and Kittitas.  But when you draw a line through Yakima that is just a boundary line.  I claim that there is a stronger community of interest within Yakima that you are ignoring.  Now if you could explain why part of Yakima has strong ties with Vancouver, while the other has strong ties with Spokane or the Tri-Cities, I can understand why you advocate splitting the county, and perhaps even the city.

The reason that Chelan County was split off from Kittitas was because during winter people had to travel through Seattle or Spokane (where the railroads met) in order to get to the courthouse in Ellensburg.  With development of I-90 over the Snoqualmie Pass it is relative easy to get to Ellensburg from Seattle.  We know that traffic at the Kittitas-Grant line is half of that at of the Kittitas-King line.  So even if people are not commuting, they are visiting their parents who have retired, or to a 2nd home in the mountains.  And even in 2000, 8% of workers who resided in Kittitas worked in King County.

If we were to agree that a split of Yakima is not a good idea, and a district over the Snoqualmie Pass is not a good idea, let's try this:

Eastern Washington plus Skamania and Clark are apportioned 3 districts, while the remainder of the state is apportioned 7 districts.

So:

Vancouver-Yakima: Clark, Skamania, Yakima.

Spokane-Northeast: Spokane and its 4 neighbors + Ferry and Okanogan

Tri-Cities-Transcascadia-Palouse: The rest of eastern Washington.

And since we've accepted the idea of not splitting counties:

West: Thurston, Lewis, Cowlitz, Pacific, Grays Harbor, Mason, Jefferson, Clallam

King+Pierce (4 districts):  

Tacoma-Pierce West

Seattle

King East

King South-Pierce East

Snohomish

Puget Sound-Northwest:  Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan, Kitsap


I took a similar approach when I drew my map. Rather than start with separate districts, I looked at groupings of districts. That was especially true for the three eastern/southern districts.
You might not have appreciated that I was suggesting non-equal district populations.  The only county splits would be in King and Pierce Counties.
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« Reply #205 on: March 13, 2011, 11:13:13 pm »
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I'm kind of confused by something.  I just compiled Seattle precinct registered voter counts, versus 18+ Census population.  Most of it makes sense, but several wealthy neighborhoods have 100%+ registration rates.  One precinct has 426 people over eighteen and 506 registered voters.  Another supposedly had 98.8% of its 18+ voters cast a ballot in 2010, which suggests to me that it's not all people who've moved but not been marked inactive.  What's going on with that?  Is there some reason the Census would the 18+ count would underestimate (not overestimate) eligible voters?
Do Washington election precincts conform to Census Bureau Voter Tabulation Districts?

"tabulation" is a key word, in that Census Bureau tabulates data from census blocks, which don't always conform to election districts (for example, if you had an area bounded by streets but with a park area in the middle, the houses on opposite streets probably have more in common with the houses across the street than those a 1/2 mile away.

It is also up to local officials to delineate VTDs,  In Maine, they are just the intersection of legislative boundaries.  In other places they are ward boundaries, used to elect city or town council members.  Oregon didn't bother, other than in Multnomah County.  For a mail election you really don't need election precincts, since you can generate the ballots based on address and send them to each voter.  They are useful for gerrymandering, and somewhat for validating election results.  You could probably miss 10,000 votes in King County or add an extra 10,000 and no one would notice.  But if you have 2,000 extra or missing in one precinct, or a precinct where Chuck Baldwin gets 1083 votes, and Barack Obama 14, it is more likely to be checked out.

It is also possible that Washington changed its precinct boundaries after they sent their VTD definitions to the census bureau.

High income areas are likely to have high levels of civic participation, especially if it is all single family homes.  There is a greater intent to remain in Seattle.  If it is 50/50 that you will move to Los Angeles or Atlanta in a couple of years, you are more likely to rent, and less likely to care about the government, even if you are wealthy.

The Census Bureau and the governments use different definitions of residence.  Rahm Emanuel and family were probably counted by the Census Bureau as living in D.C. (or Maryland or Virginia), even though he continued to vote in Chicago.  Rich people may have multiple residences.   Seattle weather in April may not be so nice on rich old bones as Tucson or Phoenix.  It probably doesn't apply to these neighborhoods, but military personnel have some flexibility in where they live for tax purposes.  Washington is a good place to "live" since there are no state income taxes.  It is somewhat similar for voting.  So there may be some extra voters around Fort Lewis who haven't been in the state for a while.
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« Reply #206 on: March 13, 2011, 11:15:37 pm »
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I'm kind of confused by something.  I just compiled Seattle precinct registered voter counts, versus 18+ Census population.  Most of it makes sense, but several wealthy neighborhoods have 100%+ registration rates.  One precinct has 426 people over eighteen and 506 registered voters.  Another supposedly had 98.8% of its 18+ voters cast a ballot in 2010, which suggests to me that it's not all people who've moved but not been marked inactive.  What's going on with that?  Is there some reason the Census would the 18+ count would underestimate (not overestimate) eligible voters?

Where/how do eligible overseas voters vote in Washington State?

While abroad I simply changed my address to overseas and received/mailed my ballot from there. Very simple, got to keep the same precinct and such. When it comes to registration rates I think college students likely count for the difference, almost all Washington college students vote from their home precinct/address, not their college one. For example why would I ever want to vote in Spokane over Olympia?
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« Reply #207 on: March 14, 2011, 11:59:43 am »
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The precincts don't conform everywhere, because some precincts split Census blocks.  They conform fine in Seattle though, and are unchanged.  I think college+overseas may be the answer.  An 117% registration rate still seems out there, but I guess it's possible at the extreme.
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« Reply #208 on: March 14, 2011, 05:05:29 pm »
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Do Washington election precincts conform to Census Bureau Voter Tabulation Districts?

Most don't.  I worked on the Block Boundary Suggestion Project prior to the 2000 Census, and most precincts outside of the most urban areas  do not meet Census Bureau standards of having physical boundaries (roads, streams, power line cuts, etc.).
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« Reply #209 on: March 15, 2011, 12:04:02 am »
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Do Washington election precincts conform to Census Bureau Voter Tabulation Districts?

Most don't.  I worked on the Block Boundary Suggestion Project prior to the 2000 Census, and most precincts outside of the most urban areas  do not meet Census Bureau standards of having physical boundaries (roads, streams, power line cuts, etc.).

Definitely true, but that's not a problem with almost all Seattle precincts.

I have a Dave's Redistricting App file of the current Washington LD's that might be helpful in redistricting.  Would anyone like me to find a place to put it online?
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« Reply #210 on: March 15, 2011, 12:33:15 am »
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Yes please Smiley
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« Reply #211 on: March 15, 2011, 11:22:54 pm »
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Holy damn...LD redistricting is toughhh.

Eastern Washington was tricky enough:  Keeping the Tri Cities-Walla Walla reps intact, while not really messing up the Spokane incumbents, seems undoable.

I can't figure out how to deal with Clark County's population boom, short of down-shifting a bunch of districts, unless we move over a district.  I see no other way to compensate for a 37k shift.  You have to get into the Tacoma area before you get a district with enough size to start reducing that deficit.
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« Reply #212 on: March 26, 2011, 11:59:17 am »
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A majority-minority congressional district is being proposed -I'd curious to see how everyone here would draw it:

Activists propose 'majority minority' congressional district for Washington

By Jim Brunner
Seattle Times political reporter


As work begins on reshaping Washington's congressional-district boundaries, some local activists want to see the state create a district that for the first time would be more than half minority.

That could be done, just barely, by combining Southeast Seattle with the suburbs south of the city, where the minority population has exploded over the past decade.

The Win/Win Network, a nonprofit group, drew up the potential "majority people of color" district and plans to submit it to the Washington State Redistricting Commission, the bipartisan panel charged with redrawing the state's political map this year.

"The intent is really to increase representation for communities of color," said George Cheung, director of the liberal-leaning organization.

The new district would stretch from Southeast Seattle to Federal Way. It would follow the boundaries of several legislative districts: the 11th, 30th, 33rd, 37th and 47th.
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« Reply #213 on: March 26, 2011, 12:25:47 pm »
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One case where the Democrats would probably love such a district as it forces the split of Seattle across multiple districts (much like the talk about a Hispanic district in Colorado forcing the split of Denver).

I doubt it happens, though, and it seems likely that a 49% white seat would still elect a white Congressman.
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« Reply #214 on: March 26, 2011, 03:26:34 pm »
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Not to mention, the area doesn't have much of a history of racial bloc voting, let alone "white vs. not" voting.  A pretty silly proposal, IMO.
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« Reply #215 on: March 26, 2011, 04:27:41 pm »
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Yeah, on top of that the reason it's "Minority-Majority" is because it winds up being heavily Asian.  Whites are about 49% of VAP, and no other ethnic group comprises more than 20% of the Population, meaning that they're have to all block vote to pick a candidate of choice.
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« Reply #216 on: March 26, 2011, 04:47:52 pm »
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A majority-minority congressional district is being proposed -I'd curious to see how everyone here would draw it.

Awful idea.  One of the great things about this state is the racial tranquility.  We are the very last state that needs this.   
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« Reply #217 on: March 26, 2011, 06:16:20 pm »
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It won't happen, even though I wouldn't be opposed to sharing Seattle's Democratic goodness with the suburban districts. Wink

I actually did try to draw the least white district possible once, though I wasn't following any other rules and had some ridiculous Pasco-to-Seattle district. Tongue
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« Reply #218 on: April 05, 2011, 11:47:03 am »
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I'm sure I'm way off the mark here, but with the partisan data added I thought I'd see if I could draw a commission-ey map. I tried to hew as closely to the existing district lines as possible, avoid county or city splits (the biggest one is Tacoma, which I had to split between WA-06 and WA-09), and either ignore partisan data or encourage competitive seats (I'm not sure which they go for).

State



Seattle area



WA-01 (blue) - Instead of jumping across Puget Sound, it stretches across northern King County and farther up into Smohomish. Old district: 56.2% Murray, new district: 56.5% Murray.
WA-02 (green) - Expands very slightly, picking up a little bit of Snohomish and dropping the one random descent into eastern King County. Old district: 50.5% Murray, new district: exactly 50.0% for each (the margin is 118 votes in favor of Rossi).
WA-03 (purple) - This one probably changes the most. Northern end of the district is chopped off, and it moves east to Yakima. Old district: 52.5% Rossi, new district: 55.5% Rossi.
WA-04 (red) - Moves east, losing Yakima and gaining Walla Walla. Old district: 64.4% Rossi, new district: 63.9% Rossi.
WA-05 (yellow) - Loses Walla Walla, gains bits of Franklin County. Old district: 58.6% Rossi, new district: 58.4% Rossi.
WA-06 (teal) - Drops part of Tacoma, picks up islandy parts on the west side of Puget Sound. Old district: 53.1% Murray, new district: 53.0% Murray.
WA-07 (grey) - Seattle and a bit of the suburbs south of it. Old district: 81.0% Murray, new district: 81.5% Murray.
WA-08 (light purple) - Loses Pierce County. Adds a bit of the inner Seattle-area suburbs. Old district: 50.8% Rossi, new district: 53.0% Murray.
WA-09 (sky blue) - Loses the southwestern swath of territory, picks up a bit on the northern and eastern borders. Old district: 52.8% Murray, new district: 54.1% Murray.
WA-10 (magenta) - The new seat. Most of Pierce County, all of Thurston County, and some parts south and southwest of Thurston. 50.9% Rossi.

I don't know if anyone got drawn out of their districts, but the only incumbent that would probably be seriously miffed is Reichert. Losing Pierce County would be a blow to his re-election chances. He could always move to the new WA-10, though.
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« Reply #219 on: April 05, 2011, 02:05:44 pm »
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The two northeasternmost precincts in King County (Skykomish) can only be reached through Snohomish County (or Chelan County), so they will be in WA-02 (that's why they're in WA-02 now). Also, you can avoid splitting Tacoma if you push WA-06 south into Grays Harbor, then switch some territory around between WA-10 and WA-09.

Also, there's no road connecting Yakima to the rest of your WA-03. You need WA-03 to reach Toppenish; that's where the road from Klickitat comes in to the Yakima Valley. I think this means the city of Yakima has to be split.
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« Reply #220 on: April 11, 2011, 12:08:56 pm »
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How many Rossi LDs can you draw? (Out of 49)

I've made it to 28.
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« Reply #221 on: April 11, 2011, 01:44:02 pm »
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Got it to 29 now with one more barely Rossi district.
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« Reply #222 on: April 11, 2011, 07:08:31 pm »
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Fyi, the partisan numbers are wrong in any precinct that cast over 1,000 votes for a given candidate (shows up as 0) -- which happened in Benton, Grant, Jefferson, Pierce and Whatcom.
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« Reply #223 on: April 12, 2011, 03:28:14 pm »
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Here's a Democratic gerrymander of Western Washington (the rest of the map would just be a pubbie pack).




The most marginal district would be the 2nd which is only 52-48 Dem in 2010 as well as CD-1 and 10 which are about 54% Dem. The rest are safe Democratic districts.

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« Reply #224 on: April 24, 2011, 06:33:55 pm »
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First post!! :p

I've been playing with Dave's Redistricting since November or so.... and while pretty much all of my cuts have been through Columbia River counties.... what if the second were to take Okanogan and Chelan counties. The 2nd could hold onto Skykomish in N. King county and have the State route 2 "connection" for Chelan and N. Cascades for Okanogan counties.

I know this would make the district considerably more Republican and that endangering incumbents is certainly looked down upon by WA's redistricting commission, however it would be pretty clean cut.

The third would still have to creep up into Yakima county, but a split of the city and its direct suburbs would be spared. Are 2 Cascade crossing too much.... Im going to guess so, but it's certainly another way of looking at it.
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