US House Redistricting: Washington

[bgwah]

First post!!

I've been playing with Dave's Redistricting since November or so.... and while pretty much all of my cuts have been through Columbia River counties.... what if the second were to take Okanogan and Chelan counties. The 2nd could hold onto Skykomish in N. King county and have the State route 2 "connection" for Chelan and N. Cascades for Okanogan counties.

I know this would make the district considerably more Republican and that endangering incumbents is certainly looked down upon by WA's redistricting commission, however it would be pretty clean cut.

The third would still have to creep up into Yakima county, but a split of the city and its direct suburbs would be spared. Are 2 Cascade crossing too much.... Im going to guess so, but it's certainly another way of looking at it.

Doesn't that road close for much of the year? That would probably be an issue.

[Seattle]

That is true, however, it is quite busy during the late spring/summer when it is open. I just made up the districts for it (at least partly) and 3rd just creeps up into the Yakima Indian Reservation and into Toppenish.

[Alcon]

Welcome aboard!    I think you may currently be our only active member from Seattle.

[Seattle]

Welcome aboard!    I think you may currently be our only active member from Seattle.

Thank you! Lol, I would have thought there would be a few people from Seattle on here.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Welcome aboard!   

[Seattle]

I can't wait to see what maps they eventually come out with! While I'd prefer a true nonpartisan commission, where they don't care where the incumbent lives or what the political leanings of the district they create are.... at least we don't have the gerrymander crazy redistricting committees of Illinois or Texas.

[bgwah]

I finally made a map using the census numbers, though it's similar to what I posted earlier.

Anyway:



WA-1: Loses Kitsap and Redmond, gains Everett.
WA-2: Loses Everett.
WA-3: Loses Thurston, Pacific, Lewis, and part of Cowlitz. Gains Klickitat and part of Yakima.
WA-4: Loses Klickitat and part of Yakima, gains Walla Walla.
WA-5: Loses Walla Walla, border with the 4th in Othello slightly altered.
WA-6: Keeps Tacoma (and now includes East Tacoma) as well as expanding a little into its immediate suburbs. Gains Northern Kitsap, but loses the Olympic Peninsula. Resembles the old Bremerton-Tacoma 6th of the 1980s.
WA-7: Largely remains the same. Northern border now follows the Seattle-Shoreline border. Bryn Mawr-Skyway cut out.
WA-8: Loses Pierce County, gains Redmond. Small reconfiguring required somewhere along the border with the 9th--I chose some precincts near Renton.
WA-9: Loses Thurston, East Tacoma, and SW Pierce. Gains East Pierce and Bryn Mawr-Skyway.
WA-10: Fills the void left in Olympia. As an Olympia-Coast-Peninsula district, it somewhat resembles the old 3rd district we had several decades ago. Allows  more compact 1st, 6th, and 9th districts by cutting off the 9th's current tentacle into Olympia, and pushing the 6th into the rest of Kitsap (and thus pushing the 1st completely to the eastside of the Puget Sound).


While I think this map is ideal, it has several political problems. WA-2 changes from slight D to slight R, which would upset Rick Larsen. WA-8 changes from slight R to slight D, which would upset Dave Reichert. WA-9 still tilts D, but less so than before, which may irk Smith. Norm Dicks would have to move. But I like this map because it cleans up a lot of the mess we have in the South Sound (and West Sound).

Herrera and Heck should like it, though.

[Seattle]

Interesting..... What if you traded Everett back into the 2nd, and let the 1st eat up all Monroe/US-2 territory + Skykomish?

Why Would Heck like the third's new shape?

[bgwah]

Interesting..... What if you traded Everett back into the 2nd, and let the 1st eat up all Monroe/US-2 territory + Skykomish?

Why Would Heck like the third's new shape?

Because he would be in the new, more Democratic WA-10.

And the map is quite ugly if Everett is kept in WA-2, which apparently might happen to protect Larsen based on what somebody  is telling me. It would have to take everything up to the Lake Stevens area (which is where Larsen lives, IIRC), and might just extend all the way to the eastern county border.

[Seattle]

Taking in Everett is the only way he can really keep his seat in pro-republican years. I'd always imagined Heck lived in the Vancouver area, lol.

Any indication on what will happen with the 8th?

[bgwah]

Well, here is my attempt at an incumbent gerrymander... I think this map is an abomination, just FTR.



WA-1: Loses Kitsap. Takes over most of suburban and rural Snohomish County, leaving Democratic Everett for Larsen in WA-2. I also transferred Mukilteo and some unincorporated stuff just south of Everett into WA-2. Increases from 50.5% Murray to 51.4% Murray... I could probably increase the Murray % with a bit more work.
WA-2: See above.
WA-3: To entrench Herrera, Democratic Thurston and Pacific are cut out. Lean R Klickitat and Southern Yakima are given to her. Increases from 52.5% Rossi to 55.8% Rossi.
WA-4: Gains Walla Walla. Loses Klickitat, Southern Yakima, Kittitas, and Chelan.
WA-5: Loses Walla Walla.
WA-6: Loses Grays Harbor, Jefferson, and Clallam. Gains Northern Kitsap and Bainbridge to offset D losses in GH/Jefferson and thus protect Dicks.
WA-7: Loses Tukwila/Burien/White Center. Has to move north and eat up Shoreline and Lake Forest Park; otherwise WA-8 would have to eat up Democratic suburbs which would threaten Reichert...
WA-8: ...To protect Reichert, Redmond (and Kirkland) are kept in the 1st, by use of the above Shoreline method. Because WA-8 is so overpopulated, protecting Reichert is not easy. He gets to mostly keep his Pierce County suburbs, and gains Kittitas and Chelan counties. However, this results in a huge change: All of Renton is moved into WA-9. Newcastle, Mercer Island, the Gold Coast & most of Bellevue have to be moved into WA-9. This would be controversial, as this area has been the population anchor of the 8th since it was created, I imagine. However, it is also the biggest chunk of D voters presently in the 8th. The district increases from 50.8% Rossi to 53.9% Rossi.
WA-9: Gains Eastside cities mentioned above. Loses tentacle into Olympia. At 56.7% Murray, this seat becomes safe Dem---a good tradeoff for Republicans (it's already a very difficult seat for them, so might as well shove some D voters into it and protect Reichert).
WA-10: A 52% Murray district, ripe for Heck's picking.


Couple areas I may continue to work on
1) Make the WA-4/WA-5 split horizontal instead of vertical to make WA-4 less ugly (ie, give Douglas and Chelan to WA-5, while giving SE WA to WA-4)
2) Entrench Larsen more...but this will be even more visually unappealing than it already is, I imagine.

[bgwah]

By shifting the city of Auburn completely into WA-9, we can have WA-8 keep some of its current rural areas in Eastern Pierce County. I find this more visually appealing than my previous "ideal" map, though it does introduce another county split. Reichert still (barely) lives in the 8th district.

[Verily]

Interesting..... What if you traded Everett back into the 2nd, and let the 1st eat up all Monroe/US-2 territory + Skykomish?

Why Would Heck like the third's new shape?

Because he would be in the new, more Democratic WA-10.

And the map is quite ugly if Everett is kept in WA-2, which apparently might happen to protect Larsen based on what somebody  is telling me. It would have to take everything up to the Lake Stevens area (which is where Larsen lives, IIRC), and might just extend all the way to the eastern county border.

Wikipedia claims Larsen lives in Everett, in which case it will of course be left in WA-02.

Edit: Hmm, apparently the page for WA-02 and the page for Larsen disagree. Larsen's page says Lake Stevens, but WA-02 says Everett.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/olm112.aspx

I use this page to determine where Congresspeople live. It says Larsen lives in Everett.

[bgwah]

Yeah, he has since moved to downtown Everett. I think he started out in Lake Stevens, hence the confusion. Nevertheless, Everett is only in WA-1 in my ideal map. My abomination (AKA incumbent gerrymander, which tragically may be closer to reality) gives him Everett.

It's not like Congressmen moving is unprecedented, though. Baird moved to Vancouver after the 2000 redistricting, IIRC.

[Dgov]

Yeah, he has since moved to downtown Everett. I think he started out in Lake Stevens, hence the confusion. Nevertheless, Everett is only in WA-1 in my ideal map. My abomination (AKA incumbent gerrymander, which tragically may be closer to reality) gives him Everett.

It's not like Congressmen moving is unprecedented, though. Baird moved to Vancouver after the 2000 redistricting, IIRC.

Especially since it represents the Incumbent moving back to his original town.  It probably won't be a big deal if Larsen wants to.  Though again, he's losing a bunch of reliable Democratic votes, so i don't know how well he'd take to an Everett-less 2nd district anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, he has since moved to downtown Everett. I think he started out in Lake Stevens, hence the confusion. Nevertheless, Everett is only in WA-1 in my ideal map. My abomination (AKA incumbent gerrymander, which tragically may be closer to reality) gives him Everett.

It's not like Congressmen moving is unprecedented, though. Baird moved to Vancouver after the 2000 redistricting, IIRC.

Also what Jay Inslee did, the definition of shameless.

[bgwah]

Yeah, he has since moved to downtown Everett. I think he started out in Lake Stevens, hence the confusion. Nevertheless, Everett is only in WA-1 in my ideal map. My abomination (AKA incumbent gerrymander, which tragically may be closer to reality) gives him Everett.

It's not like Congressmen moving is unprecedented, though. Baird moved to Vancouver after the 2000 redistricting, IIRC.

Also what Jay Inslee did, the definition of shameless.

Well I meant more "Moving to stay in the district you represent," but yeah there's Inslee, too. lol.

[Meeker]

In Inslee's defense, there was a run for Governor in between those Congressional runs.

[Sounder]

It's not like Congressmen moving is unprecedented, though. Baird moved to Vancouver after the 2000 redistricting, IIRC.

Brian Baird's former Olympia home is still within the 3rd District.  He moved to be closer to the largest population center in the district. 

[Seattle]

So.... I haven't really figured out how to get pictures on here, but an interesting incumbent protection map would be to have Reichert take in Eastern Snohomish, King, and Pierce, creating an exurban Seattle district. Then, you can put Everett/Lake Stevens into the 2nd, while the first loses the Key Peninsula and takes Bellevue/Redmond north of I-90. The 7th stays about the same, but the northern border is Seattle's border and the southern strechs into White Center/Skyway/Tukwila. The ninth takes in Mercer Island/South Bellevue/Renton and then goes about all the way down into Puyallup. I split Auburn the same way it was last time because I really wasn't sure were Reichert lives. Tacoma/Parkland/N. Lakewood+Key Peninsula+Shelton make a nice compact 6th. The new 10th takes pretty much the Olympic Peninsula, the Pacific counties, Wahkiakum, Lewis, Thurston, and McChord-Lewis/Dupont in Pierce + Castle Rock in Cowlitz. This creats a pretty even district, but it voted for Murray 51%. The third keeps Longview, vancouver, and strechs up evenly into Yakima county. The fourth takes most of Walla Walla county and the fifth is pretty much the same.

1st: 58.1% - 41.9%
2nd: 51.2% - 48.8%
3rd: 45.6% - 54.4% This is probably out of reach of the Dems now
4th: 34.9% - 65.1%
5th: 41.6% - 58.4%
6th: 53.4% - 46.6%
7th: 81.5% - 18.5%
8th: 45.6% - 54.4% Lol, didnt realize it voted exactly the same percentage as the third
9th: 54.7% - 45.3%
10th: 51.0% - 49.0%

[bgwah]

^ I suppose that might be preferable to an I-90 crossing to protect Reichert.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I do keep experimenting with the I-90 crossing. Since the 8th is already so overpopulated, it already needs to cut 138,300 people. Giving it Chelan and Kittitas means it needs to cut 251,668 from its Western portions. Starting off by cutting out Pierce would be most logical, but is this really an incumbent gerrymander, or more of a trade-off for Reichert? He loses the currently most Republican part of his district for a chunk of Republican Eastern Washington.

If you can keep some of Pierce in his district (as I did in one of my maps), you have to start cutting out Mercer Island, Bellevue, and Newcastle.... I imagine there would be some strong opposition to further splitting the Eastside. We're already split between two districts (despite only having 400,000 or so people). Splitting us between three, and getting rid of the historic heart of the 8th wouldn't go unnoticed...

[Seattle]

Would Bellevue really care if it is split from the 8th to the 1st? You'd just be logically extending the 1st further down after Kirkland.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's my plan:



1st District:  54.8% Democrat, 45.2% Republican
2nd District:  51.1% Democrat, 48.9% Republican
3rd District:  55.4% Republican, 44.6% Democrat
4th District:  66.2% Republican, 33.8% Democrat
5th District:  58.2% Republican, 41.2% Democrat
6th District:  53.1% Democrat, 46.9% Republican
7th District:  81.4% Democrat, 18.6% Republican
8th District:  52.4% Democrat, 47.6% Republican
9th District:  52.9% Democrat, 47.1% Republican
10th District:  51.3% Democrat, 48.7% Republican

It's very simular to bgwah's ideal map, but with Larsen and possibly Smith in safer districts.  The 10th is only tilting Dem.

[Verily]

I believe Skykomish is the northernmost pass where a road crosses the Cascades at all, so your WA-02 is clearly impermissible.