US House Redistricting: Washington

[jimrtex]

Ok... I tried to take a stab at two Cascade crossings. Basically Reichart gets to take in Kittitas and Chelan counties, helping to make his district much, much more moderate. Although in this map I do have the 8th gaining a little bit of Redmond which serves to cancel out many of the conservatives on the east side of the mountains.

Anyways, here you go:





Honestly after looking this over I think I still prefer a district that crosses over via the Columbia (basically the 3rd taking in Yakima), it would mean there are only three CDs in the East rather than 4. And personally I refuse to connect Yakima to the 8th, for some reason Chelan and Wenatchee make more sense to me than Yakima.

Thoughts?

I think it does a better job in the west where you have clearly defined districts for Vancouver, Olympia, and Tacoma.

I'd probably include E Wenatchee in the Transcadia district.  Would that be enough to put all of the Yakima Indian Reservation in the East?

And then I'd move Mason into the Olympia district, move the Tacoma district a bit further east (does it split the city), and drop the mid-cities district a bit south.  Possibly include all of the Mount Rainier area in the Transcascadia district, unless there is a problem with splitting counties.

Congressmen don't have to live in their district.  Dicks is 70 and may retire or die before 2020, but the districts live on.

A minor tweak would be to put Skyhomish in the purple district.

[RBH]

Here's a map that gives the 2nd through 7th most populous counties their own district. And with Snomanish and Pierce getting one district entirely in the boundaries






Senate results
CD1 (open): 51/49 Murray
CD2 (Larsen): 52/48 Murray
CD3 (Herrera): 57/43 Rossi
CD4 (Hastings): 57.5/42.5 Rossi
CD5 (Rodgers): 58/42 Rossi
CD6 (Dicks): 51.5/48.5 Murray
CD7 (McDermott): 81/19 Murray
CD8 (Reichert): 58/42 Murray
CD9 (Smith): 50.4/49.6 Murray
CD10 (Open): 53/47 Rossi

Wouldn't blame Reichert and Smith for swapping districts with that map.

[RBH]

Take 2



CD1: 51/49 Murray
CD2: 52/48 Murray
CD3: 58/42 Rossi
CD4: 64/36 Rossi
CD5: 58/42 Rossi
CD6: 53/47 Murray
CD7: 81/19 Murray
CD8: 57/43 Murray
CD9: 50.1/49.9 Murray
CD10: 51/49 Murray

[CultureKing]

@jimrtex: Actually I originally had Eastern Wenatchee as part of the 8th but decided to change it because it made the 3rd have to jump into Thurston county a little bit (making the new 10th look even more odd). Though if Mason was added to the 10th then a good chunk of Pierce could be taken out of the 10th and it would look considerably better.
Here's an update that makes the above shifts:



And the partisan data (which I imagine is very close to what will be the final result of the redistricting process)
WA-03: 44.6D 55.4R
WA-06: 53.7D 46.3R
WA-08: 50.1D 49.9R
WA-09: 52.1D 47.9R
WA-10: 51.3D 48.7R

[Meeker]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce. He doesn't have Lakewood or Fort Lewis/McChord right now and isn't going to be picking them up.

[CultureKing]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce. He doesn't have Lakewood or Fort Lewis/McChord right now and isn't going to be picking them up.

But wouldn't that entail him keeping his hold on Clallam and Jefferson counties?

[Meeker]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce. He doesn't have Lakewood or Fort Lewis/McChord right now and isn't going to be picking them up.

But wouldn't that entail him keeping his hold on Clallam and Jefferson counties?

Yup. Give him back Clallam and Jefferson and give the non-Tacoma parts of Pierce to the 10th.

[Joe Republic]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce.

Ouch.

[memphis]

Starting to sound like Washington as is shouldn't be a state if it's so hard to get to one side from another, not that I'd support splitting it as that'd benefit Republicans.

A lot of the Western states are like that. Try getting from Southern Idaho to Northern Idaho. Or from Vegas to Reno. Or in the most extreme example, from just about anywhere in Alaska to anywhere else.

[CultureKing]

You're giving Dicks way too much of Pierce.

Ouch.

Well at least I left his home in-district. Really his district should be completely changed, it doesn't make alot of sense as is currently (Tacoma and Aberdeen in the same district via Port Angeles?)

[muon2]

I've updated my version of WA. I concentrated on keeping cities together as much as possible and Seattle, Olympia and Yakima are all intact. There are about 5000 people split from Tacoma. White Pass on US 12 is the only trans-Cascade crossing.

Politically, all the incumbents remain in their current districts (at least according to Vote Smart). The map create three solid Dem districts (1, 7, 9) and three solid GOP districts (3, 4, 5). The other four are competitive based on the 2010 Senate race: CD 2 - 50.3% R, CD 6 - 50.7% D, CD 8 - 51.9% D, and CD 10 - 52.4% R.

[bgwah]

I like that map better than your previous versions, Muon, but I still can't see them ever using a Lewis-Yakima crossing.

Anyway, I was naive and idealistic when I made my first maps. It's becoming clear that WA-2 will be gerrymandered to keep Everett in it, and Larsen safe...that WA-8 might cross the Cascades, not because it makes sense, but to save Reichert. That even with that, Herrera's district will also cross into Eastern Washington to make her safer. And of course, thats 1 Democratic strengthening and 2 Republican, so 2010 WA-03 loser Denny Heck will get WA-10 in return.

My next challenge will be to incorporate some of the demands (solidify Larsen, Reichert, and Herrera while making the 10th for Heck) while also trying to incorporate as many of my idealistic preferences as possible.

[muon2]

I like that map better than your previous versions, Muon, but I still can't see them ever using a Lewis-Yakima crossing.

I don't understand why a path along the Columbia then across the Satus Pass is considered better than White Pass. In the end both connect Vancouver and Yakima. Am I missing something?

[Meeker]

I like that map better than your previous versions, Muon, but I still can't see them ever using a Lewis-Yakima crossing.

I don't understand why a path along the Columbia then across the Satus Pass is considered better than White Pass. In the end both connect Vancouver and Yakima. Am I missing something?

There's a number of reasons. Part of it is historical precedence. Part of it is that White Pass can get treacherous to go over during the winter. Part of it is that the southern part of Yakima County fits in with Klickitat and Skamania while putting Yakima proper with Vancouver just feels weird, especially if they aren't connected through anything besides White Pass.

While it might make sense from outsider perspective, it's not going to happen. No one will want it, including Herrera.

[muon2]

I like that map better than your previous versions, Muon, but I still can't see them ever using a Lewis-Yakima crossing.

I don't understand why a path along the Columbia then across the Satus Pass is considered better than White Pass. In the end both connect Vancouver and Yakima. Am I missing something?

There's a number of reasons. Part of it is historical precedence. Part of it is that White Pass can get treacherous to go over during the winter. Part of it is that the southern part of Yakima County fits in with Klickitat and Skamania while putting Yakima proper with Vancouver just feels weird, especially if they aren't connected through anything besides White Pass.

While it might make sense from outsider perspective, it's not going to happen. No one will want it, including Herrera.

But since Dec I've been seeing Vancouver-Yakima links from the natives. Here are two recent versions.

Even though nobody cares, I'll continue: I toyed around with a majority-minority congressional district in King County.

Statewide view:

[Meeker]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

[muon2]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

It seems more like historical bias, but OK. My intent was to make keeping Yakima city intact a priority over having Klickitat go to CD 3 with a split of Yakima. I'll take your view under advisement.

Are there thoughts about the other areas of my map?

[bgwah]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

It seems more like historical bias, but OK. My intent was to make keeping Yakima city intact a priority over having Klickitat go to CD 3 with a split of Yakima. I'll take your view under advisement.

Are there thoughts about the other areas of my map?

I tend to think they'll try to keep the 4th and 5th split along a vertical line as opposed to the more horizontal division you propose, but they actually have done it that way in the past so it's probably just my bias towards the more recent shapes.

There's nothing really wrong with your map... I think what some of the natives right now are trying to do, is make maps that we think might resemble something the redistricting commission will come up with. It's hard, because we all tend to be somewhat idealistic with our maps, when in fact bipartisan redistricting cares more about protecting incumbents than logical changes in the map. Everett should be moved into WA-1, for example but it will likely stay in WA-2 to keep it more Democratic and protect Larsen. Similarly, as logical as it would be for WA-8 to take Redmond, Redmond is Democratic and Dave Reichert is fighting to survive in an increasingly Democratic region, so it seems unlikely that WA-8 will take in Redmond.

[bgwah]

Anyway, here is my try at a map that aims to be somewhat realistic, but also incorporates some of my idealistic elements. Call it my Idealistic Realist map (pun intended). I haven't changed districts 3, 4, or 5 since my previous version, so for descriptions of those, go back a little.

Statewide view:


Puget Sound view:



Idealistic changes that I kept:
-WA-8 is entirely within Western Washington.
-WA-3 extends into Eastern Washington via the Columbia River and Satus Pass.
-WA-1 is entirely on one side of the Puget Sound.

Realistic compromises:
-WA-2 keeps Everett.
-WA-1 takes in a bunch of suburban/exurban/rural Snohomish County instead of Everett.
-WA-9 keeps East Tacoma (I would've liked the entire city in one district), since Smith lives there.
-WA-9 takes in the rest of Renton, East Renton, and Kent from WA-8. These areas are largely Democratic, and moving them gives Reichert a safer district. Reichert takes in some more of suburban Pierce, which is Republican, in return.
-WA-6 keeps Mason County, which is where Dicks live. I ended up throwing in Clallam and Jefferson in, too, to keep the area more compact-looking. I would have liked the entire peninsula in WA-10.
-WA-10 loses the peninsula, and takes in more of suburban Pierce instead.

Other changes
-To make up for its losses to WA-10, WA-9 not only takes Renton/Kent etc. from the 8th but has to take some of the cities south of Seattle from WA-7. The border between the 7th and 9th is now exactly along the city of Seattle border, with one exception (a precinct in unincorporated White Center is kept in WA-7).
-WA-7 is, with the exception of that one precinct, made up exactly of Seattle, Vashon Island, and Shoreline.
-WA-1 makes up for losing Shoreline and its part of Seattle by taking the rest of Lake Forest Park, and also gets to keep Redmond now (which, remember, Reichert doesn't want in WA-8).

Voting numbers
-WA-1: 56.2% Murray to 54.4% Murray. Should remain lean Democratic, unless a certain someone moves there.
-WA-2: 50.5% Murray to 51.2% Murray. Larsen only gets a bit safer, but averts the major risk of losing ~100,000 person Everett (which usually votes close to 60% Democrat), which would have put him in a Rossi district.
-WA-3: 52.6% Rossi to 54.6% Rossi. Herrera gets safer without Olympia. Although this district seems fairly Republican already (for Western Washington, at least), it always seem to easily re-elect Baird, and there is a decent Democratic bench in SW WA that Herrerra obviously wants to protect herself from.
-WA-4: Who cares? Safe R.
-WA-5: Who cares? Safe R.
-WA-6: 53.0% Murray to 53.2% Murray. Dicks keeps the seat for life, as if it was ever in doubt.
-WA-7: Who cares? Safe D.
-WA-8: 50.8% Rossi to 51.8% Rossi. Reichert gets a bit more of a cushion in a district he's never managed to win by a large margin. The number could probably increased a bit with more tinkering of the boundary between the 8th and the 9th. He could of course get 1-2 points more Republican with Eastern Washington, though... But plz no!
-WA-9: 52.8% Murray to 55.7% Murray. Smith gets safer, not that he really needed it. I suppose it could hypothetically help if someone like Skip Priest challenged him, though.
-WA-10: Supposed to be a swing district with a slight tilt to the Democrats (and by the Democrats I'm referring to boring Denny Heck. Perhaps if we're lucky Cheryl Crist will run again). It's 50.6% Murray in my map, so I think it meets that requirement.

[CultureKing]

Dang, still stuck in with Lewis county. And Bgwah, what's so bad about Heck? He actually seems to be pretty on top of things to me (and ran a pretty good race last year considering the wave).

[CultureKing]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

It seems more like historical bias, but OK. My intent was to make keeping Yakima city intact a priority over having Klickitat go to CD 3 with a split of Yakima. I'll take your view under advisement.

Are there thoughts about the other areas of my map?

I can't tell from the zoomed-out map but do you happen to have Mercer Island with Seattle? If so I believe that would be a big no-no. It identifies more with the Eastside of King County than Seattle proper. Also Island county (Whidbey Island) needs to stay in the 2nd, a Sound crossing is pretty unlikely.

[muon2]

Including Yakima proper in the 3rd is fine so long as it includes a significant part of the rest of the county along with Klickitat. Having Yakima proper being the only part of the area in a western Washington CD isn't going to fly. And relying on US 12 as the only connector won't fly either.

It seems more like historical bias, but OK. My intent was to make keeping Yakima city intact a priority over having Klickitat go to CD 3 with a split of Yakima. I'll take your view under advisement.

Are there thoughts about the other areas of my map?

I can't tell from the zoomed-out map but do you happen to have Mercer Island with Seattle? If so I believe that would be a big no-no. It identifies more with the Eastside of King County than Seattle proper. Also Island county (Whidbey Island) needs to stay in the 2nd, a Sound crossing is pretty unlikely.

I have both of those covered. Mercer I. is in CD 8 and Whidbey I. is in CD 2. Vashon I. is in CD 7 with Seattle. The only complete Sound crossing is to link CD 1 from Edmonds to Kingston.

This is the detail area for my map (pink lines are the cities from DRA).

[bgwah]

Dang, still stuck in with Lewis county. And Bgwah, what's so bad about Heck? He actually seems to be pretty on top of things to me (and ran a pretty good race last year considering the wave).

It seems pretty likely that Thurston and Lewis will end up in the same district. And Denny Heck is boring, that's what!

[Meeker]

Dang, still stuck in with Lewis county. And Bgwah, what's so bad about Heck? He actually seems to be pretty on top of things to me (and ran a pretty good race last year considering the wave).

It seems pretty likely that Thurston and Lewis will end up in the same district. And Denny Heck is boring, that's what!

[bgwah]

Sad face yourself.

Now comment on my map!