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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Washington  (Read 30243 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #400 on: September 15, 2011, 11:32:00 am »
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The four Republican-held districts are overpopulated by about 398,000 people,

How much of that overpopulation is in two districts, WA-8 and WA-3, one of which was held by a Democrat for the past decade?
The full breakdown is

8th 21%
3rd 16%
4th 15%
2nd 13%
1st 10%
5th 8%
9th 7%
6th 5%
7th 4%

of the statewide surplus population that the new district needs to be fashioned from.
The two R-held competitive seats, one of the two safe R seats, and the D-held competitive seat top the list, in that order. Three of the four safe D seats are at the bottom.
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« Reply #401 on: September 15, 2011, 06:20:28 pm »
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I thought the VRA only applied to a given minority group, not minorities in general
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« Reply #402 on: September 15, 2011, 07:04:04 pm »
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I just find the entire idea that minorities can't get elected in this state without their own special districts to be absolutely absurd.

Majority white King County elected minorities as its executives in 1993, 1997, 2001, and 2005.

Majority-white Seattle, which is basically WA-7, had a black mayor for two terms in the 1990s.

A majority-white county council district may very well elect a black county councilman this November, despite only being 2-3% black probably.

John Lovick is black and got elected Snohomish County Sheriff (and as a state legislator before that) despite running in majority-white constituencies.

We were one of the first states to elect a minority Governor.

Jaime Herrera was elected in WA-3, despite it being majority white. One of her main opponents in the Republican primary was also a minority.

Minorities can get elected in Washington without racial gerrymandering. And to suggest otherwise is not just dishonest, but insulting to the rest of us by implying we don't vote for minorities when we clearly have a lengthy track record of doing so.

And really, they're proposing a district that is still 49% white!! And probably about 54-55% 18+ white! And maybe over 60% when you count only voters!

Demographic changes in the 9th district will probalby result in it becoming majority-minority soon anyway. There is absolutely no reason to ruin the rest of the Puget Sound districts for such a pointless reason.
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« Reply #403 on: September 15, 2011, 07:14:04 pm »
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ok... I tried to make a compromise map between the various plan. Somewhere along the line I think I got lost but I think it could be a good indication of what may come out of redistricting:





It includes a majority-minority district (even though personally I don't see the point) and the 8th crossing over into the East side of the state via I-90. My goal was to try and tamper down some of the partisan differences (and create an Olympia district simply because I am biased for my home town). I made sure the 10th linked Olympia and areas south of Tacoma since so many of the plans seemed to take that route.

Partisan and Demographic data:

WA1: 52.5D-47.5R (74.7% white)
WA2: 51.3D-48.3R (77.8% white)
WA3: 44.3D-55.7R (83.4% white)
WA4: 35.1D-64.9R (57.3% white)
WA5: 41.7D-58.3R (85.6% white)
WA6: 52.6D-47.4R (79.5% white)
WA7: 78.0D-28.0R (73.1% white)
WA8: 45.2R-54.8R (75.2% white)
WA9: 61.0D-39.0R (49.7% white)
WA10: 53.4D-46.6R (69.0% white)

Honestly looking at the maps I feel like the dems gave up way too much with their versions while the Republicans went for the moon. I am not sure if that hurts the dems negotiating positions going forward.

So in the end:
2 Super-Solid D districts (the 7th and 9th)
1 Likely D district (the new Olympia-based 10th)
3 Lean D districts (the 1st, 2nd, and 6th)
2 Likely R districts (the 3rd and 8th)
2 Solid R districts (the 4th and 5th)

On thing I find interesting is that if population trends continue along the same lines then we could easily see the possibility for a majority-minority district east of the cascades (although it would quite possibly be the most conservative majority-minority district in the nation).

Thoughts? Is this a plausible scenario?
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CultureKing
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« Reply #404 on: September 15, 2011, 07:16:24 pm »
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I just find the entire idea that minorities can't get elected in this state without their own special districts to be absolutely absurd.

Majority white King County elected minorities as its executives in 1993, 1997, 2001, and 2005.

Majority-white Seattle, which is basically WA-7, had a black mayor for two terms in the 1990s.

A majority-white county council district may very well elect a black county councilman this November, despite only being 2-3% black probably.

John Lovick is black and got elected Snohomish County Sheriff (and as a state legislator before that) despite running in majority-white constituencies.

We were one of the first states to elect a minority Governor.

Jaime Herrera was elected in WA-3, despite it being majority white. One of her main opponents in the Republican primary was also a minority.

Minorities can get elected in Washington without racial gerrymandering. And to suggest otherwise is not just dishonest, but insulting to the rest of us by implying we don't vote for minorities when we clearly have a lengthy track record of doing so.

And really, they're proposing a district that is still 49% white!! And probably about 54-55% 18+ white! And maybe over 60% when you count only voters!

Demographic changes in the 9th district will probalby result in it becoming majority-minority soon anyway. There is absolutely no reason to ruin the rest of the Puget Sound districts for such a pointless reason.

While I agree with your rant Bgwah I am afraid that those who get to decide have had a swig of the kool-aid and probably won't be listening to reason anytime soon.
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« Reply #405 on: September 15, 2011, 09:31:56 pm »
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I highly doubt a new majority-minority district would even elect a minority candidate off the bat anyway. There isn't enough of any one minority group to nominate a candidate of their own volition, even if we assume racial block voting.
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« Reply #406 on: September 16, 2011, 07:50:55 am »
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It's not a "minority-majority seat" in anything but p.r.
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« Reply #407 on: October 14, 2011, 04:38:17 pm »
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Down to two draft maps for legislative districts: http://redistricting.wa.gov/maps.asp
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« Reply #408 on: October 14, 2011, 04:41:11 pm »
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The Republican map of Spokane is really sickening. So is their Clark County map, though the Democrats' map is still somewhat ugly...

Anyway, the Republicans are moving forward with full blown gerrymanders while the Democrats seem to be going in with more sensible maps. I have a bad feeling this is not going to end well.
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« Reply #409 on: October 14, 2011, 08:49:26 pm »
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The Republican map of Spokane is really sickening. So is their Clark County map, though the Democrats' map is still somewhat ugly...

Anyway, the Republicans are moving forward with full blown gerrymanders while the Democrats seem to be going in with more sensible maps. I have a bad feeling this is not going to end well.

I think the Huff-Gorton plan is more reasonable in keeping Seattle in fewer districts rather than having them stretched out so much.

How much of LD-6 is actually NE of Spokane, populationwise?

If you were to slide LD-17 and LD-49 east, would LD-18 get yanked down into Vancouver?
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« Reply #410 on: October 14, 2011, 10:36:23 pm »
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The Republican map of Spokane is really sickening. So is their Clark County map, though the Democrats' map is still somewhat ugly...

Anyway, the Republicans are moving forward with full blown gerrymanders while the Democrats seem to be going in with more sensible maps. I have a bad feeling this is not going to end well.

I think the Huff-Gorton plan is more reasonable in keeping Seattle in fewer districts rather than having them stretched out so much.

How much of LD-6 is actually NE of Spokane, populationwise?

If you were to slide LD-17 and LD-49 east, would LD-18 get yanked down into Vancouver?


I do prefer the R version of Seattle (it's almost exactly what I proposed). The Democratic map is probably trying to avoid placing incumbents together, since their weird splits into ultra-Democratic suburbs probably isn't giving them extra seats. And while I don't necessarily approve of that, it doesn't bother me as much as blatant gerrymandering to take out the other party's seats. I suppose it's possible there was some sort of ripple effect that made outer districts slightly more Democratic in return. Hard to be certain at a glance.

I don't know how much of NE Spokane is in the 6th... But as you probably noticed it does a silly swerve around the Spokane Valley to also take in SE Spokane. We see the Senate Majority leader (D) have her district mutilated. The city of Spokane appears to be in four districts. That's ridiculous. No offense but it looks almost... Texan. Tongue

I tried to answer your question about Clark County, but the redistricting app keeps crashing on me. Maybe tomorrow. Tongue Both maps do it though, so maybe it's not possible. What annoys me is the "mushroom cloud" 17th LD trying to turn a swing seat into a safe seat.

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #411 on: October 23, 2011, 05:19:30 am »
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Something I'd long liked to draw. The third to take all of the Yakima agglomeration... and the fourth to cross Snoqualmie Pass and take in East King to make up the resulting population deficit.
I think it works beautifully. And I also eliminated all those Puget Sound crossings that had always bothered me.



Democratic Senate percentages 2010:
1st 57.1%
2nd 50.0% (just under btw)
3rd 43.0%
4th 37.2%
5th 41.7%
6th 50.9%
7th 81.2%
8th 52.4%
9th 56.4%
10th 49.7%

...so 3-3-4 if you take Eastside Republican incumbency into account - Republicans don't have genuine cause to complain. Of course incumbents gonna hate (with unfortunate implications under Washington law).
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« Reply #412 on: October 23, 2011, 04:01:26 pm »
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One big problem with that map Lewis: Having the 3rd cross via White Pass would likely cause outrage by one side or the other. Also Democrats would probably be foaming at the mouth and attack the first thing in sight.
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« Reply #413 on: October 23, 2011, 11:31:22 pm »
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I think it works beautifully. And I also eliminated all those Puget Sound crossings that had always bothered me.
They are part of the regular transportation network of the state.
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« Reply #414 on: October 24, 2011, 12:14:38 am »
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I think it works beautifully. And I also eliminated all those Puget Sound crossings that had always bothered me.
They are part of the regular transportation network of the state.

Also there is a bridge across the Tacoma Narrows, so a cross-Puget Sound District is absolutely fine there. Although ferry connected districts aren't that bad..
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #415 on: October 24, 2011, 05:16:03 am »
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I think it works beautifully. And I also eliminated all those Puget Sound crossings that had always bothered me.
They are part of the regular transportation network of the state.

Also there is a bridge across the Tacoma Narrows, so a cross-Puget Sound District is absolutely fine there. Although ferry connected districts aren't that bad..
I know, I know, they're better than random mountain crosses obviously. They still annoy me and aren't actually necessary.

Anyways, you could draw that arrangement for the 3rd to 5th without the western changes.

Also, White and Satus. That the main highway from Satus to Yakima runs on the non-reservation, and 4th district, side of the river doesn't impact its usability as a connection.

Oh wait, the connection from Lewis County to Vancouver is in the 6th, obviously. Yeah, I suppose instead of rural parts of Lewis you could use rural parts of Cowlitz. Though you'd have to draw it very closely around Longview, and obviously you'd be introducing an additional county split as the 6th would then have to take a small part of Thurston or Lewis (or cross the Sound after all).
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« Reply #416 on: October 24, 2011, 11:05:27 am »
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You could push the 3rd out of Lewis/Cowlitz entirely, push the 4th further out (entirely out?) of Yakima County, and push the 4th further into eastern King County to balance it out. I think that might actually be better for the Democrats as well.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #417 on: October 24, 2011, 11:20:42 am »
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You could push the 3rd out of Lewis/Cowlitz entirely, push the 4th further out (entirely out?) of Yakima County, and push the 4th further into eastern King County to balance it out. I think that might actually be better for the Democrats as well.
It would improve their position in the 8th, and weaken it in the 10th. It would also be bad from a CoI point of view - East King in the 4th arguably makes more sense than Wenatchee in the 8th... but it's still awkward, and the deeper into the continuously built-up plains you go, the more awkward it becomes. As of right now, I manage to almost avoid that, and the area where I don't is cunningly hid around the intersection of 8th, 4th, 1st and 2nd.
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« Reply #418 on: November 19, 2011, 01:49:03 pm »
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What is taking so long!??!!

Sad
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« Reply #419 on: November 19, 2011, 03:24:19 pm »
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You have quite the long wait to go, I'm afraid.
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« Reply #420 on: December 16, 2011, 01:16:36 am »
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There's a meeting Friday morning where something very close to the final lines for the LD's (except Eastern WA and Seattle) will be revealed. Further patience is required for the final LD lines and anything on the CD front. Smiley
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« Reply #421 on: December 16, 2011, 06:27:56 pm »
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Is there any indication when they will have the CD lines ready?
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« Reply #422 on: December 16, 2011, 06:30:34 pm »
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They claim they'll have something on Tuesday but I'm pretty skeptical about that.
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« Reply #423 on: December 18, 2011, 11:15:40 pm »
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http://redistricting.wa.gov/maps_draft.asp

The legislative district maps are pretty silly in spots, but I guess I've come to expect that. I'm encouraged to see Sammamish being lumped with the Eastside instead of rural King County, though. Hopefully the same will happen with the congressional districts... I do not want to be in a Reichert-mander!
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« Reply #424 on: December 19, 2011, 12:57:26 am »
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Won't you be living in Seattle anyway?
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