US House Redistricting: Washington
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  US House Redistricting: Washington
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Washington  (Read 83224 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #525 on: January 01, 2012, 12:02:26 PM »
« edited: January 01, 2012, 12:12:02 PM by bgwah »

They haven't posted detailed demographics yet... But Wapato, Toppenish, Harrah, White Swan, etc. are not in the district. Looks like it still voted 57% or so Rossi.

In fact it looks like even the most Hispanic part of Yakima (the city) isn't in the district, so I wouldn't be surprised if this district was actually >60% Rossi.

Ha! For a second there I thought there was an actual compromise. But nope. The Republicans won. Again.
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Meeker
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« Reply #526 on: January 01, 2012, 12:06:05 PM »

Yeah, on closer inspection it's not the majority-minority district Dems had been pushing but a watered down version.
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bgwah
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« Reply #527 on: January 01, 2012, 12:25:34 PM »

And despite the fact that Republicans quite clearly won, Democrats will look like the bad guys engaging in racial gerrymandering for political gain.

Like I've said already, a very impressive win for Gorton & Huff.
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Meeker
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« Reply #528 on: January 01, 2012, 12:46:52 PM »

Your definition of "Republicans winning" seems to be "Democrats not getting everything they wanted".
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bgwah
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« Reply #529 on: January 01, 2012, 12:53:04 PM »

Your definition of "Republicans winning" seems to be "Democrats not getting everything they wanted".

No, my definition is the Republicans getting everything they wanted. They even got their ludicrous 1st CD. And what do the Democrats get exchange? Not even a legislative district? Really?

I understand this map has great potential to advance your career, and I'm happy for you as a person. I'm not happy as someone who believes in fair redistricting.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #530 on: January 01, 2012, 01:02:42 PM »

They haven't posted detailed demographics yet... But Wapato, Toppenish, Harrah, White Swan, etc. are not in the district. Looks like it still voted 57% or so Rossi.

In fact it looks like even the most Hispanic part of Yakima (the city) isn't in the district, so I wouldn't be surprised if this district was actually >60% Rossi.

Ha! For a second there I thought there was an actual compromise. But nope. The Republicans won. Again.
Ouch.
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Meeker
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« Reply #531 on: January 01, 2012, 01:19:13 PM »

I don't really see how the Republicans got everything they wanted but I can tell we're not going to agree.

I guess I'm just easier to please. The CD map will probably yield a 6-4 delegation, likely the same result as a court drawn map. Democratic chances in the legislature are also going to be influenced far more by retirements and candidate recruitment than these maps. We can definitely have majorities in both chambers next year if we play our cards correctly.

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bgwah
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« Reply #532 on: January 01, 2012, 01:20:43 PM »

Illogical districts just bum me out. Especially when they're to the other side's benefit! Tongue
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BRTD
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« Reply #533 on: January 01, 2012, 02:29:28 PM »

I wouldn't be so annoyed if it wasn't for the fact the likely Dem candidate in WA-01 is a right wing anti-labor hack. He's so bad on labor issues the teacher's union endorsed his Republican opponent last election. So even if won we get a Democratic version of Scott Walker, ugh.
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Meeker
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« Reply #534 on: January 01, 2012, 02:38:53 PM »

I suspect Suzan DelBene (Reichert's 2010 opponent) will end up being our nominee.
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BRTD
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« Reply #535 on: January 01, 2012, 02:42:07 PM »

Does the legislative map resemble this in any way? This was a thought experiment I did a few months ago to see if I could draw a majority Republican legislature:




29 Rossi districts in this map.
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bgwah
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« Reply #536 on: January 01, 2012, 02:49:26 PM »

^ No, not really.

I suspect Suzan DelBene (Reichert's 2010 opponent) will end up being our nominee.

You think shes willing to drop a couple million again? lol

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #537 on: January 01, 2012, 03:20:10 PM »

Better her than Darcy Burner.
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bgwah
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« Reply #538 on: January 01, 2012, 03:32:43 PM »


My nightmare scenario is the more serious Democrats split the vote allowing Darcy to pull through.

I like Darcy Burner, but she just isn't the right candidate for the district.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #539 on: January 01, 2012, 03:39:37 PM »

Does it even matter with the new district?
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bgwah
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« Reply #540 on: January 01, 2012, 03:40:39 PM »

Does it even matter with the new district?

Why wouldn't it?
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Meeker
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« Reply #541 on: January 01, 2012, 03:41:19 PM »

^ No, not really.

I suspect Suzan DelBene (Reichert's 2010 opponent) will end up being our nominee.

You think shes willing to drop a couple million again? lol

I've got no insider information but I suspect so. Pretty easy to win a divided primary if you dump in $2 million.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #542 on: January 01, 2012, 03:42:19 PM »

We are talking of the new 8th, right?
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Meeker
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« Reply #543 on: January 01, 2012, 03:43:11 PM »


The 1st. DelBene's home in Medina was conveniently drawn into it. Almost as if it was intentionally drawn so she lived in it...
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bgwah
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« Reply #544 on: January 01, 2012, 04:05:45 PM »


No, Burner is in the 1st now.
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bgwah
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« Reply #545 on: January 01, 2012, 07:26:47 PM »

I tried drawing some of last night's Eastern districts. They split a ton of precincts though, so it's approximate:

3rd: 55-45 D
6th: 54-46 R
15th: ~60-40 R (ton of splits, very approximate!)
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Meeker
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« Reply #546 on: January 01, 2012, 07:31:43 PM »

Are those 2010 numbers?
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bgwah
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« Reply #547 on: January 01, 2012, 07:39:08 PM »

Yes... I added the current districts in parenthesis for comparison:

3rd: 55-45 D (57-43 D)
6th: 54-46 R (55-45 R)
15th: ~60-40 R (58-42 R)

So the 15th is actually getting more Republican. Hah. It traded a lot of territory (Klickitat and Skamania) with the 14th. The 14th is currently 64-36 R is probably still >60 R (haven't drawn it).
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bgwah
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« Reply #548 on: January 01, 2012, 07:47:00 PM »
« Edited: January 01, 2012, 07:52:35 PM by bgwah »

Here are the numbers for the most minority 15th possible (which would require an iffy 16th LD stretched out along the state's southern border), keeping the 15th entirely in Yakima County:

64% Hispanic, 27% White, 6% Native American
54% Rossi, 46% Murray
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #549 on: January 01, 2012, 08:37:05 PM »

Final map will be presented at 7.
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