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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Washington  (Read 29344 times)
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« on: December 22, 2010, 09:06:55 pm »
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Washington's redistricting efforts will be interesting as the state adds a 10th Congressional District.   Another interesting factor is Eastern Washington's robust growth has caused it to out grow their two congressional districts.  One or more Western Washington districts will have to straddle the Cascades. 
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2010, 10:05:12 pm »
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This is one scenario I had in mind.  It is not entirely accurate as I do not have the 2010 data.  





Close-up of Western Washington:




Changes:

1st:  becomes an entirely east sound district.  Trades Shoreline, Bainbridge, and North Kitsap, for Bellevue and Everett.

2nd: The state's NW district needs to shrink due to strong growth.  It loses South Everett and Skykomish.

3rd:  The state's SW district sheds Olympia and gains Klickitat County and the Westport Peninsula.  

4th: Due to strong growth, the district sheds Chelan, Kittitas, Klickitat, and western Adams County.  Adds Walla Walla and Columbia.

5th: Sheds Walla Walla and Columbia.  Gains Adams panhandle.  

6th: Unites the entire Olympic Peninsula by adding North Kitsap, Bainbridge, and Olympia.  Sheds Lakewood, western Tacoma, and Westport.

7th:  Trades Vashon Island and Lake Forest Park for Shoreline.

8th:  Loses downtown Bellevue, Points Cities, and portions of Pierce and South King.  Adds Woodinville, more Renton, Kittitas, and Chelan.

9th:  Loses Olympia, Lacey, Yelm, and Spanaway.  Adds Vashon Island and portion of the old 8th in Pierce and South King County.  

10th:  the new district includes Tacoma, Lakewood, Lacey, Yelm, and rural Pierce County.


Comments:

- Inslee lives on Bainbridge and would have to move under the above scenario (or retire to run for Governor as has been rumored)

- Not sure exactly where in Auburn Dave Reichert lives, so I may have chopped him out.  It would be easy to get him back in by trading away another piece to the 9th.

- Not sure where in Everett Larsen lives, so he may have been chopped too.  

- All others are secure in their district.

- A possibility to represent the new 10th would be former Congressman and current Insurance Commissioner Mike Kriedler.  I don't see the GOP with a shot there.

- The 7th, 9th, and 10th districts are pretty safe to ultra safe Democrat districts.  The 4th and 5th are safe GOP districts.  The 3rd and 8th lean Republican while the 1st and 6th lean Democrat.  The 2nd is pretty close to a swing district.


More detail:

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bgwah
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« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2010, 01:34:11 am »
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According to the OFM, Eastern Washington grew more slowly than Western Washington.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2010, 02:56:17 am »
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I'll offer up my take:




Close-up of Puget Sound:

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CultureKing
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2010, 02:57:21 am »
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Though I have heard that incumbent-protection does play a role in the process and honestly I did not even consider that aspect...
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« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2010, 03:03:15 am »
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True, but large growth in the 4th district will force it to shrink down. 

According to OFM's 7/09 estimates:

Eastern Washington population:  1,484,600

Apportionment population:  673,325 

Surplus population of Eastern Washington after drawing up the 4th and 5th districts:  137,950


Population of Klickitat, Kittitas, and Chelan Counties:  135,495

Put Klickitat in the 3rd (which will likely lose Olympia area) and the other two to districts up north.  I propose the 8th, but there could be other creative solutions.  I prefer the 8th because it is the most populated, trafficked link between east and west.  The prosperous Eastside has turned much of the two eastern counties into their vacation playground and retirement destination.  Plus the two receive Seattle area TV stations, another important link. 


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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2010, 03:08:45 am »
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I'll offer up my take:


I really dislike that 3rd.  Splitting up the Yakima Valley like that and attaching it the SW WA district doesn't make much sense, especially since there are better connections up north. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2010, 03:33:02 am »
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I will post my map again, even though my creepy internet stalker has already seen it Tongue

« Last Edit: December 23, 2010, 03:35:41 am by bgwah »Logged

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2010, 07:33:01 am »
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The likelihood of a transcascade district that doesn't include the Columbia Gorge is flat zero. It's just not going to happen.

Which means some kind of split to the Yakima area is probably unavoidable. Unless you want to stretch Herrera's district to the Tri-cities instead.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2010, 04:29:33 pm »
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The likelihood of a transcascade district that doesn't include the Columbia Gorge is flat zero. It's just not going to happen.


My scenario above has the Columbia Gorge going to the 3rd.  That still leaves over 100,000 people in Eastern Washington without a congressional district.   Snoqualmie Pass is the next logical bridge.  The corridor is populated and already has many links back and forth.  Much of the growth east of the pass is being generated by Eastside Seattle.  Another advantage of going over Snoqualmie Pass is not splitting districts into multiple television markets. 
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« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2010, 09:03:03 pm »
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Welcome to the forum Smiley

I would look more closely at the growth patterns of Snoqualmie Pass and surrounding environs before you make that claim.  There's some resort property there but there always has been.  Where is this boom growth, Suncadia?  Hardly.  Suncadia casts a trivial number of votes.  Doesn't even have its own precinct.  There are a very negligible number of commuters.  Even the Hyak/Snoqualmie Pass area of the King-Kittitas border is clearly mostly retirees and resort folks, if you look at the voting rolls and Census data.  I doubt more than a handful of people make that gnarly, seasonally-dependent commute.

Yakima County is also frequently split along those lines in legislative districting, and yet we have never had an over-the-mountains district.  Ever.  Lewis and bgwah are right -- there is no good argument for that being the probabilistic outcome.  I'm also pretty sure television markets have little history in being considered a "community of interest" in Washington.

Inslee is running for Governor in 2012, so I doubt keeping Bainbridge in WA-1 will be such a big deal.
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« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2010, 09:28:11 pm »
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I would look more closely at the growth patterns of Snoqualmie Pass and surrounding environs before you make that claim.  There's some resort property there but there always has been.  Where is this boom growth, Suncadia?  Hardly.  Suncadia casts a trivial number of votes.  Doesn't even have its own precinct.  There are a very negligible number of commuters.   Even the Hyak/Snoqualmie Pass area of the King-Kittitas border is clearly mostly retirees and resort folks, if you look at the voting rolls and Census data.  I doubt more than a handful of people make that gnarly, seasonally-dependent commute.

All of which is more than there is up at Satus Pass, an even higher elevation pass, on a two lane road vs. major interstate freeway.  Greater distance between population areas to boot! 

It is silly to divide up the Yakima Valley because some Seattle centric types don't want any icky EWers in their district.   A Snoqualmie Pass crossing makes the most geographic sense.



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bgwah
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« Reply #12 on: December 23, 2010, 09:59:57 pm »
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It is silly to divide up the Yakima Valley because some Seattle centric types don't want any icky EWers in their district.

None of us said that. Or anything even remotely like that.
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« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2010, 10:08:12 pm »
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It is silly to divide up the Yakima Valley because some Seattle centric types don't want any icky EWers in their district.

None of us said that. Or anything even remotely like that.

Never accused any of you of that.  Read the comments at the Seattle Times article on redistricting. 

Linking east and west at Snoqualmie Pass, whether it is the 8th, the new 10th, or some other district, makes a lot of geographical sense. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #14 on: December 23, 2010, 10:10:46 pm »
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Read the comments at the Seattle Times

I can usually find more entertaining ways to kill my braincells Grin
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« Reply #15 on: December 23, 2010, 10:25:18 pm »
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Here are some more entertaining examples:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8025/washington-redistricting-v20




http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7787/washington-redistricting-10-cds




http://olywa.blogspot.com/2010/11/i-redraw-your-congressional-districts.html

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bgwah
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« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2010, 10:29:15 pm »
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What website/program are you guys using to make your maps?
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« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2010, 01:22:55 am »
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I would look more closely at the growth patterns of Snoqualmie Pass and surrounding environs before you make that claim.  There's some resort property there but there always has been.  Where is this boom growth, Suncadia?  Hardly.  Suncadia casts a trivial number of votes.  Doesn't even have its own precinct.  There are a very negligible number of commuters.   Even the Hyak/Snoqualmie Pass area of the King-Kittitas border is clearly mostly retirees and resort folks, if you look at the voting rolls and Census data.  I doubt more than a handful of people make that gnarly, seasonally-dependent commute.

All of which is more than there is up at Satus Pass, an even higher elevation pass, on a two lane road vs. major interstate freeway.  Greater distance between population areas to boot! 

It is silly to divide up the Yakima Valley because some Seattle centric types don't want any icky EWers in their district.   A Snoqualmie Pass crossing makes the most geographic sense

Except...the 15th LD currently does through Satus Pass instead of dividing the mountains up by...oh, nevermind.  We'll see how the districts fall.  I certainly disagree with your probability claim, and I think your certainty falls into the category of absurd.  I don't know how many folks in Issaquah or Snoqualmie are "Seattle centric" types, or who suggested that, but I'm still waiting on your evidence of huge Seattle influence on the east side of Snoqualmie Pass.

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« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2010, 02:10:06 am »
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I can see the rationale behind putting the Eastside suburbs with Kittitas and Chelan, but when it comes down to it, there are huge differences in the bulk of the populations represented. I think the most significant problem is Chelan, rather than Kittitas. At least Kittitas has a university and the mountain towns that are fairly well linked to the west side, but Wenatchee in Chelan is not very easily reached and I think it's unusual splitting Wenatchee and E. Wenatchee.

The Cascades really do present quite a problem... but I think there will be a creative solution. There may need to be two cross mountain districts.
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« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2010, 06:05:25 pm »
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I don't know how many folks in Issaquah or Snoqualmie are "Seattle centric" types, or who suggested that, but I'm still waiting on your evidence of huge Seattle influence on the east side of Snoqualmie Pass.



Yakima Herald-Republic via Seattle PI.com: Many make trek across mountains to jobs in King County

But for more than 1,000 Kittitas County residents, crossing the Cascade Range to get to work is no more nuts than sitting bumper to bumper in a sea of concrete somewhere on the west side.
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« Reply #20 on: December 24, 2010, 06:27:03 pm »
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What website/program are you guys using to make your maps?

Dave 2.0, but I tried to use OFM's 7/09 #s as much as possible.   
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Verily
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« Reply #21 on: December 24, 2010, 06:29:28 pm »
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Here's my version, for what it's worth. I modeled the districts off of the current map and kept all incumbents in their current seats. This meant some awkwardness on the Olympic Peninsula because Norm Dicks lives in NE Mason County while Jay Inslee lives on Bainbridge Island, yet the Olympic Peninsula should "naturally" contain only one seat. Oh well.


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bgwah
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« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2010, 07:04:28 pm »
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Here's my version, for what it's worth. I modeled the districts off of the current map and kept all incumbents in their current seats. This meant some awkwardness on the Olympic Peninsula because Norm Dicks lives in NE Mason County while Jay Inslee lives on Bainbridge Island, yet the Olympic Peninsula should "naturally" contain only one seat. Oh well.




Hey Verily. Jay Inslee is actually running for Governor in 2012, so you shouldn't concern yourself with keeping him in the 1st district.
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Verily
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« Reply #23 on: December 24, 2010, 10:17:57 pm »
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Taking that into account, here's a new version. I put Island County into the Olympic Peninsula seat because I wanted a separate Olympia seat, and Island County was the only other easily accessible place (via ferry from Port Townsend) that didn't quite feel like I was drawing a seat across the Puget Sound. Still had to split off a bit of western Thurston County, unfortunately.



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muon2
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« Reply #24 on: December 25, 2010, 12:09:33 am »

So, if understand the dynamics in WA with 10 seats, then there is a conundrum on the east side. Either Yakima is split with the city and its immediate suburbs in different districts, or there is a transcasade link over the Snoqualmie Pass.

The numbers would also seem to support keeping Yakima intact (except perhaps for the IR) and the Cascades inviolate, but linking Benton county to Klickitat. I assume that is just as bad politically as the other options, since it would split the tri-cities.
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