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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Washington  (Read 30803 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #75 on: December 30, 2010, 02:33:05 am »
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I'm not going to go into too many details, but I'll say I've had multiple lengthy conversations with those directly involved in the process (including one of the members of the Redistricting Commission). You can value that as much as you wish.

The Commission itself isn't entirely opposed to the notion of a King/Kittitas district. The issue is local elected and community leaders - whose input is valued immensely in practice - are extremely opposed to being included in a district with Western Washington. They consider themselves Easterners and want to remain in a district with other Easterners. They don't feel they'll be represented by a district that crosses the Cascades. The political enmity between Eastern WA vs. Western WA runs high.

Unless the folks in Cle Elum decide for whatever reason they don't care anymore (breaking 120+ years of habit...) a district connected by one of the passes simply isn't going to happen. The Washington redistricting process isn't a touchy-feely, non-partisan exercise. It's a very political process that involves a lot of compromise and intangibles that no one outside of party insiders really notice.
Hopefully, the redistricting commission will hold hearings throughout the state, for the convenience of the locals.

Spokane, Tri-Cities, Vancouver, Olympia, Seattle, and Bellingham.   Fortunately the Seattle hearing will be convenient for the folks from Wenatchee and Cle Elum, who would get tomatoes (probably nuclear-radiated) tossed at them were they to show up in Richland.

You'll get testimony like this:  Sure its an easy drive in summer, but let me tell you as someone who drives to work everyday over Snoqualmie Pass to my job at Microsoft, or on weekends to watch the Mariners or go to the Pike Street Market it's not always nice in winter.


Let' try something entirely different.

Is it possible to draw three districts based in Eastern Washington?

For simplicity, let's assume that we have 7,000,000 people with a population equivalent to 2.2 districts in the East (1,540,000)

700,000 of that goes to a Spokane-based district.

Split the rest of the east in half (420,000) in each part.  So maybe Yakima and Tri-Cities in one, and start in Kittitas and keep going (perhaps all the way to Idaho).  You then take 280,000 from Clark County and 280,000 from King County to complete the districts.  King County will never notice the extra split.  For Clark County, can you come right along the river and take Vancouver, and then use the rest of Clark County to the north.  Does the Portland media even cover the Washington legislature, unless someone is proposing an income tax? 

This would leave 60% of the districts in the east.  This may actually be the least disruptive plan since it would take western population from the two most populous districts, and you just shift the rest of the population around to make it more balanced.

You could of course play with the numbers some, perhaps taking less of King and more of Clark.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #76 on: December 30, 2010, 06:00:54 am »
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Let' try something entirely different.

Is it possible to draw three districts based in Eastern Washington?

For simplicity, let's assume that we have 7,000,000 people with a population equivalent to 2.2 districts in the East (1,540,000)

700,000 of that goes to a Spokane-based district.

Split the rest of the east in half (420,000) in each part.  So maybe Yakima and Tri-Cities in one, and start in Kittitas and keep going (perhaps all the way to Idaho).  You then take 280,000 from Clark County and 280,000 from King County to complete the districts.  King County will never notice the extra split.  For Clark County, can you come right along the river and take Vancouver, and then use the rest of Clark County to the north.  Does the Portland media even cover the Washington legislature, unless someone is proposing an income tax? 

This would leave 60% of the districts in the east.  This may actually be the least disruptive plan since it would take western population from the two most populous districts, and you just shift the rest of the population around to make it more balanced.

You could of course play with the numbers some, perhaps taking less of King and more of Clark.
That didn't really work out but this might:

E1: Yakima, Klickitat, Skamania, Clark (has excess of 31K)

E2: Spokane, Pend Oreille, Stevens, Ferry, Lincoln, Whitman, Walla Walla, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin

E3: Kittitas, Cheland, Douglas, Okanagan, Grant, Adams, Benton, Franklin, + King 138K.

So we avoid the split in Yakima, by moving part of King County into the eastern area,

In the West:

W1: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan, Island, Jefferson* , 231K Snohomish

Western Jefferson is almost unpopulated, so this is from the Port Townsend area.  Whether Jefferson is actually included may depend on where the split in Snohomish is.

W2: Snohomish 495K, King 184K

W3&W4: King

W5: Pierce 426K and King 254K

So King has 2 whole districts, and 184K to north, 138K to east, and 254K to southh

W6: Kitsap and Pierce 411K (needs 19K from either Mason or Thurston_

The split of Pierce appears to be unavoidable, unless Kitsap is placed in a cross-Puget Sound district.

W7: Clark 31K, Cowlitz, Lewis, Thurston, Pacific, Wahiakum, Grays Harbor, Mason, Clallam (excess of 19K from Mason or Thurston to W6).  Also includes western Jefferson.

E1: Vancouver-Yakima
E2: Spokane-Eastern Washington
E3: Tri Cities-Central Washington
W1: Bellingham-Everett(?)-Northern Washingon
W2: Snohomish suburbs-Northern King suburbs
W3: Seattle
W4: Central King suburbs (east of Lake Washington)
W5: Southern King suburbs-Eastern Pierce suburbs
W6: Tacoma-Bremerton
W7: Olympia-Pacific Coast-Western Washington
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brittain33
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« Reply #77 on: December 30, 2010, 09:57:27 am »
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Pronunciation guide to Washington place names, perhaps a helpful resource for other spectators on this thread going as nuts as I am:

http://www.ap.org/washington/pron.html
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brittain33
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« Reply #78 on: December 30, 2010, 10:09:17 am »
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You'll get testimony like this:  Sure its an easy drive in summer, but let me tell you as someone who drives to work everyday over Snoqualmie Pass to my job at Microsoft...

There are such people and perhaps one of them would testify, but they would be unrepresentative of Cle Elum, since from my reading of this data, less than 10% of daily commuters from the town's zip code commute to the west side of the Cascades daily. It's possible to do, but one has to be dedicated and willing to commute more than 2 hours each way. It's 2 and a half hours to Redmond, combine that with getting into Seattle itself and parking to attend a hearing, I wouldn't say "convenient." 2 hours from where I live can take me into one of five other states.

http://hairycow.name/commute_map/map.html#from:98922

Not sure how many people live in the town (less than 2,000 in last census) vs. the zip code, but you're hanging your hat on a few hundred individuals to justify this, at most. Also, I'm not sure what policy purposes it serves to have this person represented by a single representative at home and at work. That would seem to be at odds with the principle of grouping urban cores together into the fewest number of districts and creating separate districts for suburbs in other states.

« Last Edit: December 30, 2010, 10:11:37 am by brittain33 »Logged
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« Reply #79 on: December 30, 2010, 04:34:22 pm »
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Back in 2000, before King County property values skyrocketed even higher, there were over 1,200 people commuting from Kittitas into King County.  Considering there is a sizable student population there, it is a significant number.  Plus when you factor in the income discrepancy between King and Kittitas, it is even more significant.  

The issue is this:

- should Union Gap be in the same district as Vancouver

or

- should Ellensburg be in the same district as Issaquah

Drive the two routes and it is quite clear which is the way to go.  Plus factor in TV markets, commuters, and it is a slam dunk if you ask me.  
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« Reply #80 on: December 30, 2010, 05:09:22 pm »
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Here are the historical districts up through the 70's:















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« Reply #81 on: December 30, 2010, 06:03:30 pm »
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Thanks for posting!!! I'm pretty sure I looked at the same source as you. I also remember trying to figure out what the smallest congressional district in history was  (by land area), because I'm a dork like that. Manhattan had one with ~400,000 people per square mile or so, IIRC, but I don't remember the exact the land area off the top of my head.
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« Reply #82 on: December 30, 2010, 06:16:33 pm »
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Also, Sounder, if you're ever at the State Archives and can get the county results for the Sen/Gov races from 1954 and 1956, then we would have a complete record back to 1914, which would be cool. Just a suggestion, since you're a lot closer to it than me. Smiley There are also some gubernatorial races before that (I managed to add 1892 and 1908) but those books are often on the brink of total destruction, so they can be difficult.
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« Reply #83 on: December 30, 2010, 07:43:21 pm »
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I have a really good 'in' with the S.O.S., I'll see what I can do.  May take some time. 
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« Reply #84 on: December 30, 2010, 07:49:55 pm »
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Here is a slightly tweaked version of the one I posted initially in this thread.  I drew it up over OFM's 2000 density map to show where the people are approximately (some areas have grown/densified over the last 10 years).   I added more East Wenatchee in exchange for the Adams panhandle (Othello).  I drew the lines by hand (poorly), so it is not totally accurate, but a good representation. 

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bgwah
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« Reply #85 on: December 30, 2010, 08:48:04 pm »
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I have a really good 'in' with the S.O.S., I'll see what I can do.  May take some time. 

How does it work? I went to the regional archives in Bellevue once, and I just had to tell them what I wanted and I could come take pics of it, IIRC.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #86 on: December 30, 2010, 10:07:57 pm »
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You'll get testimony like this:  Sure its an easy drive in summer, but let me tell you as someone who drives to work everyday over Snoqualmie Pass to my job at Microsoft...

There are such people and perhaps one of them would testify, but they would be unrepresentative of Cle Elum, since from my reading of this data, less than 10% of daily commuters from the town's zip code commute to the west side of the Cascades daily. It's possible to do, but one has to be dedicated and willing to commute more than 2 hours each way. It's 2 and a half hours to Redmond, combine that with getting into Seattle itself and parking to attend a hearing, I wouldn't say "convenient." 2 hours from where I live can take me into one of five other states.

http://hairycow.name/commute_map/map.html#from:98922

Not sure how many people live in the town (less than 2,000 in last census) vs. the zip code, but you're hanging your hat on a few hundred individuals to justify this, at most. Also, I'm not sure what policy purposes it serves to have this person represented by a single representative at home and at work. That would seem to be at odds with the principle of grouping urban cores together into the fewest number of districts and creating separate districts for suburbs in other states.
1 hour 14 minutes Cle Elum to Newport per MapQuest.  The hearing has moved to be more centrally located.  The 2000 center of population for King County is on Mercer Island.  To avoid a residential area, they are looking for a location near the intersection of I-405 and I-90.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #87 on: December 30, 2010, 10:15:44 pm »
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Here are the historical districts up through the 70's:

So the northern district can include Clallam and Jefferson if that will help make a more convenient split in Snohomish.
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« Reply #88 on: December 30, 2010, 11:16:35 pm »
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So the northern district can include Clallam and Jefferson if that will help make a more convenient split in Snohomish.


It's kind of silly, since it is only linked via the Port Townsend - Keystone Ferry, but portions of the northern Olympic Peninsula are pretty much isolated from everywhere, so there are no real pressing links to preserve.  I'd like to see the cross sound districts phased away other than perhaps at the Tacoma Narrows now that there are 10 districts.  But looking at history, there have been a lot of ferry linked districts going all the way back to City of Seattle linked with Kitsap County. 

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« Reply #89 on: December 30, 2010, 11:22:45 pm »
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How does it work? I went to the regional archives in Bellevue once, and I just had to tell them what I wanted and I could come take pics of it, IIRC.

I'll try the state library first, they have lots of information.  I have only been to the archives building on the Capitol Campus (if it is still there) when I was with the S.O.S.  office.  The last time I was there was when moving the signed and boxed ballot initiatives from the S.O.S. office to the vault over at archives, under armed State Patrol escort.  If they ever nuke Olympia, those ballot initiatives will be safe.  Tim Eyman can rest peacefully. 
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« Reply #90 on: December 31, 2010, 05:19:08 am »
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I added an Atlas-style 1980s CD map of Washington to the wiki, if anyone is curious. I can't find the original I drew it based off of, though... I also added Dave's 1990s and 2000s maps (with the minor edit of properly placing Tacoma in the 6th on the 90s edition).
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« Reply #91 on: December 31, 2010, 07:45:49 pm »
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I drew up a new map:



South Sound:



Seattle:





The districts:

Blue - This district unites the University of Washington with Washington State University.  For an even bigger block party, Central Washington University, Eastern Washington University, Gonzaga University, Washington State University Tri-Cities, Washington State University Spokane, Bellevue College, Spokane Falls CC, and Spokane CC are included in this higher education centric district.   I need to tweak the district boundaries some to include the Gorge Amphitheater, an essential meeting place for the district.  Current Rep.: open seat.  Future Rep: Dave Matthews

Pink - Neah Bay and Anatone are finally united into the same congressional district.  After a century of evil gerrymandering that kept these sister cities separate, justice finally prevails.  This district wins as the all time great food producing congressional district, and plans on hosting a future season of Bravo TV's Top Chef.  Current Rep:  Doc Hastings.  Future Rep:  Drew Bledsoe

Cadet Blue? (district centering on Kitsap Peninsula, islands) - The maritime district.  Further justice as Ballard finally frees itself from big bully Seattle.  Linked with other fishing and port towns such as Anacortes, and most of this region's islands.  Point Roberts too, since it is pretty much an island itself.  Mercer Island is also included in this district, linked to the rest of the district by Paul Allen's super secret Mercer Island - Sperry Peninsula tunnel.  Current Rep: Norm Dicks.  Future Rep: Sig Hansen

Yellow:  After a decade and a half of Almost Live! jokes against it, congressional power is the only just remedy for this image challenged part of our region.  The big hair, beer drinking, big truck driving, chew spitters are once again united in a common district.  Because of the area's growing population, I had to disappoint many of the constituents by not being able to include Skagit Speedway in Alger or Grays Harbor Raceway in Elma into the district.  As a consolation prize, they at least have South Sound Speedway near Tenino.  Current Rep:  Dave Reichert.  Future Rep: Kasey Kahne

Orangish Red:  The U.S. 2 District.  Follows the old Stevens Pass route out of Seattle all the way to Spokane.  It was originally only going to include areas west of the mountains, but the essentiality of having an international airport in this district forced it to encompass the Airway Heights area after residents of Mukilteo rejected plans to turn Paine Field into Seattle-Everett International Airport.  Current Rep:  open seat.  Future Rep:  J.P. Patches

Aqua:  The aqua district includes the littoral views of Puget Sound west of Interstate 5.  West Seattle, Burien, and Tacoma will use their united political power to fight the unjust snubbing of the region by Dick's Drive-In during their recent expansion.  Current Rep: Adam Smith.  Future Rep:  Chris Cornell

Purple:  This district represents a once proud, now dead industry of this region: macro brewering.  Uniting the corpses of the once great Rainier Brewery in Seattle and Olympia Brewery in Tumwater, this is our area's rust belt (except the entire rest of the district, which is fine).  Current Rep:  Jim McDermott.  Future Rep: Shawn Kemp (if enough of his children follow him to Seattle)

Green:  Green represents all the money that was given to me by Rick Larsen's people to draw this district.  He knows he is a goner without some big gerrymander.  Current Rep: Rick Larsen.  Future Rep:  Rick Steves

Grey:  Washington's great mountainous northern tier and winter sports capital.  Has the snowfall records and Memorial Cups.  Also has an extensive border with Canada, which probably explains its snowfall and winter sports prowess.  Current Rep:  Cathy Rogers-McMorris.  Future Rep: Jake Locker

Purple: Follows the Columbia up the Wallula Gap to the junction with its largest tributary, the Snake.   The Yakama Nation and Mt. St. Helens are the non-Columbia River portions of the district.  Due to its extensive border with Oregon, foreign relations skills and fluency in the Oregonian language are essential for any candidate thinking about running in this district.  Current Rep:  Jamie Herrera.  Future Rep:  Curt "the original famous Curt Warner" Warner
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« Reply #92 on: January 01, 2011, 07:34:26 am »
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What did Spokane do to deserve getting Saskatchewaned?
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« Reply #93 on: January 01, 2011, 07:43:07 am »
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What did Spokane do to deserve getting Saskatchewaned?
Why, this:

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« Reply #94 on: January 05, 2011, 01:41:43 am »
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The Republicans have named their nominees to the Redistricting Commission: Former Gig Harbor State Rep. Tom Huff and (gag) Slade Gorton.
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« Reply #95 on: January 05, 2011, 01:46:31 am »
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The Republicans have named their nominees to the Redistricting Commission: Former Gig Harbor State Rep. Tom Huff and (gag) Slade Gorton.

I don't know exactly why, but LOL at Gorton.
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« Reply #96 on: February 16, 2011, 04:13:10 pm »
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It's clearly necessary gerrymander time!



Should be 8-2, at least using 2008 numbers. The south sound districts can swap territory if need be.
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bgwah
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« Reply #97 on: February 16, 2011, 07:01:00 pm »
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Well, my gerrymander is 9-1 D! Tongue

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« Reply #98 on: February 16, 2011, 07:03:08 pm »
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Well, my gerrymander is 9-1 D! Tongue



Yours is ugly though. Tongue
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« Reply #99 on: February 16, 2011, 07:04:12 pm »
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No, it's like a pretty spiral! Sad
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