US House Redistricting: Washington
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cinyc
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« Reply #175 on: March 08, 2011, 05:59:35 PM »

Presumably the 6% who work in King County but are residents of Klickitat County own second homes in Klickitat but claim residence/fill out their Census forms at those homes (but really live somewhere in King County, or maybe a few on Bainbridge Island or Snohomish or Pierce Counties). Probably true of the tiny proportion of Kittitas residents who claim to work in King County, too.

The proportion of Kittitas residents who work in King County isn't as tiny as you claim.  It was 16.2% of the county's workforce in 2009.  Admittedly, it's not comparable to the percentage of residents of Snohomish (44.2%), Pierce (33.4) or Kitsap (28.1%) who worked in King, but it is the most-frequent outside county of employment for Kittitas residents.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #176 on: March 08, 2011, 07:22:40 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 07:24:23 PM by brittain33 »

Does anyone want to draw a map of New York or Georgia under this new standard of linking exurban and rural commuters with the places some of them work? Would be weird, isn't it?

Finding Kittitas commuters like righteous men in Sodom solely to make WA-8 more Republican--and let's be honest, that's all that is about--is, at best, a contestable standard.
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cinyc
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« Reply #177 on: March 08, 2011, 08:14:24 PM »

Does anyone want to draw a map of New York or Georgia under this new standard of linking exurban and rural commuters with the places some of them work? Would be weird, isn't it?

Finding Kittitas commuters like righteous men in Sodom solely to make WA-8 more Republican--and let's be honest, that's all that is about--is, at best, a contestable standard.

You are grossly misstating the issue.  By my math, Washington State west of the Cascades is about a quarter of a district short of having the population for 8 districts.  The question is where that quarter of a district should come from.  Which areas have the most ties to those on the other side of the mountains is relevant when figuring which areas to append to a district that will be dominated by folks from the other side of the mountains.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #178 on: March 08, 2011, 08:21:06 PM »

Just so we're all clear, the exact wording of the relevant question, complete with the census form's capitalization, is:

"At what location did this person work LAST WEEK? If the person worked at more than one location, print where he or she worked most last week."

The census does this to avoid weird issues with people who've recently moved, but it will catch temporary business travelers and that sort of thing. Jmfsct for instance would probably now show up as commuting from Texas to Boston. Now obviously 16% of a county isn't at a business meeting in Seattle, but still the statistic will generally overestimate "commuters" in a normal sense.
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ottermax
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« Reply #179 on: March 08, 2011, 09:18:40 PM »

Okay so maybe it makes sense to add Kittitas County to a Western district, but you'd still need population from other places like Chelan and Douglas County, which are even more of a stretch in terms of connections with Western Washington. I think it's mostly a culture thing. There are a few people who have their summer homes in Chelan or Kittitas County, but the vast majority of Eastsiders are not that wealthy.... The other thing is that most of the people who actually vote in Kittitas and Chelan don't particularly have much in common with the people who vacation there.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #180 on: March 09, 2011, 01:11:58 AM »


The other county is also across a river from its employment destination.
It could be Douglas County, depending on if the aluminum plant is in operation.
It is Douglas County.  IS the commuting to the aluminum plant or just the city of Wenatchee?


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jimrtex
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« Reply #181 on: March 09, 2011, 01:38:32 AM »

There are traffic cameras on the pass.  It's your job to check it out tomorrow morning and afternoon.

The person I know who does the cross Cascades commute works M-Th, so you won't see him up on the pass until 7:30 PM.  

Since we are monitoring Snoqualmie Pass, any volunteers to monitor Satus Pass?  

The point was not that people commute over Satus Pass but do not commute over Snoqualmie Pass. Commutes were never mentioned by anyone until you came along, and we have now clearly demonstrated that no one commutes over either pass. (Well, no one has monitored Satus Pass, but it can be safely assumed.)

The point was that Centralia and Vancouver have a lot more in common with Yakima than Bellevue has with Ellensburg in terms of shared interests and demographics, a point you have yet to even make a serious attempt to refute.
If you go from Vancouver to Yakima (part) you don't also go to Centralia.

Eastern Washington has more than enough population for 2 districts.  Yakima is closer to Seattle than Vancouver.  The only reason that someone would travel from Yakima to Vancouver, rather than Seattle would be if they were on their way to see a professional basketball game, and even then they would cross the river and use I-84.  Ellensburg certainly has more in common with King County than Yakima (part) does with Vancouver and Portland, let alone Centralia.

Only half of the traffic that crosses Snoqualmie Pass makes it to Grant County.  So even if it is not commuters, it is retirees, escapees, etc. from Seattle.  If they can find work in Ellensburg they won't commute, but they will go to Seattle for major surgery, or to buy a car, or maybe to buy furniture.  They won't go to Spokane.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #182 on: March 09, 2011, 09:02:14 AM »

Which areas have the most ties to those on the other side of the mountains is relevant when figuring which areas to append to a district that will be dominated by folks from the other side of the mountains.

I get that, and I still think it's weird to fixate on the existence of a few commuters as proof of ties when there are many other factors in the communities themselves that would determine whether they should be represented by a common vote in Congress or not. Whether or not a few people regularly move from one to another, I think it has to be considered as one of many factors, especially if those long-distance commuters are atypical for their community. I really don't think anyone has proven that the economies of those two counties are linked with the westside in a substantial way, and we should also be discussing the nature of the economies in various places--rural, exurban, suburban, etc. and what policies they would seek from a representative. There, the case for the Columbia River connection seems stronger by virtue of linking rural, exurban, and small city areas together, but I don't have personal connection.

The closest discussion of mountain passes I recall is in the Colorado thread, but there I think the issue is of the representative himself being able to visit multiple places in the district easily. (This is why highway links that cut the corner of a neighboring district should hardly disqualify a map.)
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Verily
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« Reply #183 on: March 09, 2011, 12:23:09 PM »

Let's disregard the above debate, which is going in circles as we seem to have fundamental disagreements about what defines communities with shared interests.*

Anyway, another idea came to mind... The commission could decide to cross the Cascades twice! This would seem a little silly as it is unnecessary to do so, but it does preserve all micropolitan areas, unlike other plans which require splitting up one micropolis or another. Here's one possibility. The Tri-Cities are all fully in one district, although some rural areas nearby are cut out; I'm currently working on another version that keeps more of the surrounding countryside with the Tri-Cities-Vancouver seat.






*I and brittain, and others, feel that communities with minimal commercial ties that nonetheless have similar political interests (through shared economic and demographic characteristics) are more reasonable to put together in a district than communities with some few commercial ties but few or no shared political interests, while Sounder and cinyc, and others, seem to feel the opposite. All of this assumes geographic neutrality, of course, since in either case we're cutting across a navigable but remote pass through the Cascades.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #184 on: March 09, 2011, 01:14:19 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 01:16:53 PM by Verily »

Here's another version of the above map, only slightly modified (about 20,000 people moved around between WA-03, WA-09, WA-06 and WA-04). It does get all of the rural areas around the Tri-Cities in one seat, but it might also put a few Tacoma exurbanites in with WA-03, which is not ideal (although it's hard for me to tell where the exurbs end and what parts of southeastern Pierce County are really just rural areas).


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jimrtex
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« Reply #185 on: March 09, 2011, 02:45:29 PM »


*I and brittain, and others, feel that communities with minimal commercial ties that nonetheless have similar political interests (through shared economic and demographic characteristics) are more reasonable to put together in a district than communities with some few commercial ties but few or no shared political interests, while Sounder and cinyc, and others, seem to feel the opposite. All of this assumes geographic neutrality, of course, since in either case we're cutting across a navigable but remote pass through the Cascades.
You either misunderstand or misrepresent our position.

It is not that going across the Snoqualmie Pass is great, but that splitting of Yakima or the Tri-Cities is worse.  While you claim to be putting together "communities" with similar interests you don't recognize that you are splitting a community.

By drawing a line along the Cascade crest you are claiming that there is no community of interest between King and Kittitas.  But when you draw a line through Yakima that is just a boundary line.  I claim that there is a stronger community of interest within Yakima that you are ignoring.  Now if you could explain why part of Yakima has strong ties with Vancouver, while the other has strong ties with Spokane or the Tri-Cities, I can understand why you advocate splitting the county, and perhaps even the city.

The reason that Chelan County was split off from Kittitas was because during winter people had to travel through Seattle or Spokane (where the railroads met) in order to get to the courthouse in Ellensburg.  With development of I-90 over the Snoqualmie Pass it is relative easy to get to Ellensburg from Seattle.  We know that traffic at the Kittitas-Grant line is half of that at of the Kittitas-King line.  So even if people are not commuting, they are visiting their parents who have retired, or to a 2nd home in the mountains.  And even in 2000, 8% of workers who resided in Kittitas worked in King County.

If we were to agree that a split of Yakima is not a good idea, and a district over the Snoqualmie Pass is not a good idea, let's try this:

Eastern Washington plus Skamania and Clark are apportioned 3 districts, while the remainder of the state is apportioned 7 districts.

So:

Vancouver-Yakima: Clark, Skamania, Yakima.

Spokane-Northeast: Spokane and its 4 neighbors + Ferry and Okanogan

Tri-Cities-Transcascadia-Palouse: The rest of eastern Washington.

And since we've accepted the idea of not splitting counties:

West: Thurston, Lewis, Cowlitz, Pacific, Grays Harbor, Mason, Jefferson, Clallam

King+Pierce (4 districts):  

Tacoma-Pierce West

Seattle

King East

King South-Pierce East

Snohomish

Puget Sound-Northwest:  Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan, Kitsap
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bgwah
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« Reply #186 on: March 09, 2011, 03:36:47 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 03:40:02 PM by bgwah »

And despite even the 2000 census showing a number of Kittitas residents commuting to King, the commission still decided to create a Clark to Yakima legislative district instead of some sort of North Bend - Ellensburg district...

But to be honest, I'm a little perplexed as to why we're arguing this again. We covered it pretty thoroughly in the first 100 posts of the thread, and I think we've all made our case for why we think each scenario is most likely. But there's really no way for us to prove it other than by waiting for the commission to draw up a map.

Speaking of legislative districts, now that we have precise 2010 numbers, perhaps we could tackle them. Grin
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cinyc
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« Reply #187 on: March 09, 2011, 04:04:55 PM »

I have no real dog in this fight.  My only position is that the numbers are what they are and there's no need to count cars when Census can give you the commuting pattern data.  Whether 16% commuting to King in 2009 (versus 8% in 2000) is enough to change the commission's mind on how to draw a district - I don't have a clue.  I just know that it is what it is.
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Sounder
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« Reply #188 on: March 09, 2011, 04:55:12 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 05:12:01 PM by Sounder »

There, the case for the Columbia River connection seems stronger by virtue of linking rural, exurban, and small city areas together, but I don't have personal connection.

Linking Vancouver (major Portland suburb) to Yakima is linking rural, exurban, and small city areas together?  Vancouver will be the 2nd largest population center in the state of Washington within the next decade or two.  

If you want to link rural, exurban, and small city, use the Central Cascades, but avoid the inner suburbs as much as possible.  The last map I posted does this.  
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Sounder
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« Reply #189 on: March 09, 2011, 05:10:20 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 05:15:26 PM by Sounder »

Here's another version of the above map,


You put two incumbents into the 3rd.  Hastings lives in Pasco, Herrea in Clark County.  WA redistricting looks out for incumbents, which is why we probably shouldn't be too quick to put Bainbridge Island into the 6th despite Inslee's Gov. fantasies.

 I have been trying to do a Tri-Cities split, but haven't come up with anything clean yet.  
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jimrtex
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« Reply #190 on: March 09, 2011, 07:19:42 PM »

And despite even the 2000 census showing a number of Kittitas residents commuting to King, the commission still decided to create a Clark to Yakima legislative district instead of some sort of North Bend - Ellensburg district...
Where is the Clark to Yakima district in 2000?

But to be honest, I'm a little perplexed as to why we're arguing this again. We covered it pretty thoroughly in the first 100 posts of the thread, and I think we've all made our case for why we think each scenario is most likely. But there's really no way for us to prove it other than by waiting for the commission to draw up a map.

Speaking of legislative districts, now that we have precise 2010 numbers, perhaps we could tackle them. Grin
Only if you draw representative districts as well.
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Alcon
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« Reply #191 on: March 09, 2011, 07:50:41 PM »

And despite even the 2000 census showing a number of Kittitas residents commuting to King, the commission still decided to create a Clark to Yakima legislative district instead of some sort of North Bend - Ellensburg district...
Where is the Clark to Yakima district in 2000?

He's alluding to the 15th legislative district, which spans from eastern Clark County to southern Yakima County.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #192 on: March 10, 2011, 01:10:47 AM »

And despite even the 2000 census showing a number of Kittitas residents commuting to King, the commission still decided to create a Clark to Yakima legislative district instead of some sort of North Bend - Ellensburg district...
Where is the Clark to Yakima district in 2000?

He's alluding to the 15th legislative district, which spans from eastern Clark County to southern Yakima County.
Yakima is necessarily split by legislative districts.

The district that extends into Clark County also includes Klickitat and Skamania whose population is concentrated along the Columbia River.  The Columbia Gorge National Scenic Area extends into Clark County.

There are 6,000 persons in the area, and the district boundary was drawn very carefully to keep out of the urbanized Vancouver area, with the boundary drawn the metropolis and Washougal.  LD 18 is drawn to include Camas and Washougal to further indicate how remote this area is from Vancouver.

The proposals from the Yakima-splitists would not only include all of Clark County but would extend northward to Centralia.

So in effect the arguement of the Yakima-splitists is: "Since legislative districts necessarily split Yakima County, and in 2000 a district was drawn that carefully took 6000 persons in the most remote area of Clark County, what can be wrong with making an unnecessary cut of Yakima County, grabbing all of the fastest growing suburban area in the state and extending far beyond into western Washington."
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bgwah
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« Reply #193 on: March 10, 2011, 02:37:29 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2011, 02:41:27 AM by bgwah »

I've been starting to draw legislative districts, but obviously it's more time consuming. I've started in the NW. Definitely some interesting possiblities already. The 42nd is very marginal, with even one precinct change having the potential to tip certain elections (Buys vs. Linville comes to mind. It was also barely won by Gregoire, IIRC, but o/c that doesn't matter). However, much of the border with the 40th is currently through the Democratic heart of Bellingham, and the 42nd needs to lose about 9,000 people. If they want to keep it as electorally competitive as it currently is, then they would need to change the border in the suburban areas around Lake Whatcom.

The 40th only needs to shed 3,000, but of course there will be a ripple effect when it absorbs excess 40th, meaning it will need to shed 12,000 people to the south, probably in Skagit County. The border is definitely a little strange right now, so there is no obvious solution to me. Mt. Vernon has too many people to cleanly peel it off. They may have to completely change the borders in Skagit County if they want to keep the cities intact like they do now.
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bgwah
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« Reply #194 on: March 11, 2011, 07:29:34 PM »

I see people aren't nearly as opinionated about legislative districts as they are about the great Cascades-crossing debate. I wonder why... Tongue
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jimrtex
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« Reply #195 on: March 12, 2011, 12:18:36 AM »

I see people aren't nearly as opinionated about legislative districts as they are about the great Cascades-crossing debate. I wonder why... Tongue

There are only 7500 residents in the Clark County portion of 15.  This is less than 1/2 the population of Skamania County.  You might reduce changes to current districts if you were to put North Bend in an eastern district or Cle Elum in a western district.  That possibility should not be disregarded.
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Sounder
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« Reply #196 on: March 12, 2011, 12:38:19 AM »

I see people aren't nearly as opinionated about legislative districts as they are about the great Cascades-crossing debate. I wonder why... Tongue

Still working on my first map.  It takes awhile, especially if you are looking out for incumbents.
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bgwah
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« Reply #197 on: March 12, 2011, 01:08:42 AM »

I see people aren't nearly as opinionated about legislative districts as they are about the great Cascades-crossing debate. I wonder why... Tongue

Still working on my first map.  It takes awhile, especially if you are looking out for incumbents.

Especially since there are three incumbents. What a headache.
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Sounder
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« Reply #198 on: March 12, 2011, 03:44:32 PM »

Do you have a good list of where they live?  I have been using District finder, but many do not list where they live.  In the larger cities, it gets tougher unless they list what neighborhood they are from.  Other than Sam Hunt and Kathy Haigh, I have no clue specifically where any of them live. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #199 on: March 12, 2011, 09:05:05 PM »

http://www.soundpolitics.com/voterlookup.html
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