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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Washington  (Read 31446 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #450 on: December 28, 2011, 02:43:54 pm »
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This is a furking disaster! I'm furious..... Splitting Seattle.... what is the second... it's disgusting, or for that matter the 8th. I need to go throttle something Tongue

At least the 3rd looks 'nice'.

Oh, and Tacoma is split a nice even three ways, lovely.

The 2nd appears to be a 'round up all the Democrats in 5 counties' district. Looks like it includes Bellingham?

Yes, it does. This is what the Republicans wanted---push all the Democrats into the 2nd so they have a chance at the 1st.
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« Reply #451 on: December 28, 2011, 02:46:35 pm »
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This is a furking disaster! I'm furious..... Splitting Seattle.... what is the second... it's disgusting, or for that matter the 8th. I need to go throttle something Tongue

At least the 3rd looks 'nice'.

Oh, and Tacoma is split a nice even three ways, lovely.

The 2nd appears to be a 'round up all the Democrats in 5 counties' district. Looks like it includes Bellingham?

Sometimes, those waterfront "communities of interest" just don't work out your way!
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« Reply #452 on: December 28, 2011, 02:50:41 pm »
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I'm calculating the districts as fast as I can (fairly approximately, tbh).  Based on my calculation of the 2nd, the 1st may be fairly nasty for the Dems:

2nd LD
Murray 55.4%
Rossi 44.6%
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« Reply #453 on: December 28, 2011, 02:52:15 pm »
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As I said in the other thread, the 1st and 2nd districts are absolutely disgusting. Is the 1st even contiguous at Medina?
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« Reply #454 on: December 28, 2011, 02:56:58 pm »
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I'm calculating the districts as fast as I can (fairly approximately, tbh).  Based on my calculation of the 2nd, the 1st may be fairly nasty for the Dems:

2nd LD
Murray 55.4%
Rossi 44.6%

I got CD3 to be about 55% Rossi.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2011, 02:58:36 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #455 on: December 28, 2011, 02:59:25 pm »
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I like how they took the absolute necessary minimum effort to keep the 1st road-contiguous, in about three places.
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« Reply #456 on: December 28, 2011, 03:00:42 pm »
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As I said in the other thread, the 1st and 2nd districts are absolutely disgusting. Is the 1st even contiguous at Medina?

It is, but barely.
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« Reply #457 on: December 28, 2011, 03:02:18 pm »
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Yep, 1st CD voted for Rossi:

1st CD
Murray 49.0%
Rossi 51.0%
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« Reply #458 on: December 28, 2011, 03:02:42 pm »
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I like how they took the absolute necessary minimum effort to keep the 1st road-contiguous, in about three places.
I don't even think it is. Highway 9 goes through Sedro Wooley, which is now in the second district.
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« Reply #459 on: December 28, 2011, 03:06:02 pm »
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I also got 51.0% Rossi for WA-01.

Burner definitely can't win this seat.

Is Ross Hunter running for Congress? Or maybe Rodney Tom? That would explain Medina's inclusion in WA-01. Or maybe Gorton (Clyde Hill) just didn't want to live in Adam Smith's district, lol.

I'm pretty sure this puts Marko Liias in WA-02. Too bad, he's a good legislator.

Ruderman or Hobbs would be the best candidate for the new WA-01.
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muon2
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« Reply #460 on: December 28, 2011, 03:10:35 pm »

Parts of this map are along the lines that many have discussed in this thread over the last year. I think Culture King gets a prize, since his map has all the major parts right except for WA-1 and 2.

ok... I tried to make a compromise map between the various plan. Somewhere along the line I think I got lost but I think it could be a good indication of what may come out of redistricting:





It includes a majority-minority district (even though personally I don't see the point) and the 8th crossing over into the East side of the state via I-90. My goal was to try and tamper down some of the partisan differences (and create an Olympia district simply because I am biased for my home town). I made sure the 10th linked Olympia and areas south of Tacoma since so many of the plans seemed to take that route.

Partisan and Demographic data:

WA1: 52.5D-47.5R (74.7% white)
WA2: 51.3D-48.3R (77.8% white)
WA3: 44.3D-55.7R (83.4% white)
WA4: 35.1D-64.9R (57.3% white)
WA5: 41.7D-58.3R (85.6% white)
WA6: 52.6D-47.4R (79.5% white)
WA7: 78.0D-28.0R (73.1% white)
WA8: 45.2R-54.8R (75.2% white)
WA9: 61.0D-39.0R (49.7% white)
WA10: 53.4D-46.6R (69.0% white)

Honestly looking at the maps I feel like the dems gave up way too much with their versions while the Republicans went for the moon. I am not sure if that hurts the dems negotiating positions going forward.

So in the end:
2 Super-Solid D districts (the 7th and 9th)
1 Likely D district (the new Olympia-based 10th)
3 Lean D districts (the 1st, 2nd, and 6th)
2 Likely R districts (the 3rd and 8th)
2 Solid R districts (the 4th and 5th)

On thing I find interesting is that if population trends continue along the same lines then we could easily see the possibility for a majority-minority district east of the cascades (although it would quite possibly be the most conservative majority-minority district in the nation).

Thoughts? Is this a plausible scenario?

As you can see he had the shape of southern and eastern WA almost on the dot. He also correctly called the new WA-9 as a majority-minority district (49.67% Non-Hisp White). That majority-minority district seems to be behind the three-way split of Tacoma, though CK didn't need it in his version.

So the real surprise is WA-1 and 2. I take WA 3,4,5, and 8 as politically matching CK's analysis and new WA-10 going to the Dems. It looks to me like the commissioners were trying to compensate for the addition of a new D seat by putting another seat in play. This map would put Larsen in the interesting position of running to hold WA-1 where I think he lives, or running in the open WA-2 which should be a safe seat.
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bgwah
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« Reply #461 on: December 28, 2011, 03:12:33 pm »
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Larsen is originally from Lake Stevens, but currently lives in Everett. Larsen will definitely run in WA-02.

WA-1/WA-2 is definitely the big surprise for everybody, I think. We didn't realize how easily the Democrats would cave.

And yeah, CK gets the prize, I guess! Good job, lol.
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« Reply #462 on: December 28, 2011, 03:13:03 pm »
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Well this map is certainly a pleasant surprise. You would think the Democrats would gain something out of a commission in Washington.
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« Reply #463 on: December 28, 2011, 03:16:28 pm »
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WA-8

Too lazy to be precise, but it's over 55% Rossi
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bgwah
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« Reply #464 on: December 28, 2011, 03:16:54 pm »
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Ruderman was the first Democrat to win on the Eastside back in the 1990s. She is a skilled politician who can win swing voters in marginally Republican districts. I'm now hoping she'll be the Democratic candidate for WA-01. Hobbs would work, too, but he's kind of an annoying moderate hero at times.

WA-01 is a near-dream district for Koster. It seems probable that he will run again. But he still lost a 50-50 district in a Republican landslide year, so he still might not be favored.
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« Reply #465 on: December 28, 2011, 03:17:13 pm »
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hahaha.... wow.. that map sucks in multiple ways.

At least we'll get to see a test of top-two if the WA1 nominees are the most liberal and conservative candidates

there is apparently a road connection through all of WA8, but Google Earth doesn't recommend you use the interstate to get to Wenatchee
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« Reply #466 on: December 28, 2011, 03:17:51 pm »
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The new WA-10 is around 52.6-52.8 Murry, that's a pretty solid D seat.
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So it goes. heya.
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« Reply #467 on: December 28, 2011, 03:21:36 pm »
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PVIs from RRH.

1. D+1
2. D+7
3. R+3
4. R+13
5. R+6
6. D+5
7. D+29
8. R+3
9. D+16
10. D+5
« Last Edit: December 29, 2011, 09:41:34 am by krazen1211 »Logged
muon2
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« Reply #468 on: December 28, 2011, 03:23:42 pm »

Larsen is originally from Lake Stevens, but currently lives in Everett. Larsen will definitely run in WA-02.

WA-1/WA-2 is definitely the big surprise for everybody, I think. We didn't realize how easily the Democrats would cave.

And yeah, CK gets the prize, I guess! Good job, lol.

Ah, my memory of Larsen's residence is out of date. So then both WA-1 and WA-10 are open seats and WA-6 has Dicks paired with Inslee, is that right?
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« Reply #469 on: December 28, 2011, 03:24:45 pm »
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Inslee was running for Governor irrespective of the map, so it doesn't matter where he lives.
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« Reply #470 on: December 28, 2011, 03:25:35 pm »
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WA-10 appears to be at least 52% Murray
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« Reply #471 on: December 28, 2011, 03:30:53 pm »
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Democratic gerrymander!
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bgwah
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« Reply #472 on: December 28, 2011, 03:33:28 pm »
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Larsen is originally from Lake Stevens, but currently lives in Everett. Larsen will definitely run in WA-02.

WA-1/WA-2 is definitely the big surprise for everybody, I think. We didn't realize how easily the Democrats would cave.

And yeah, CK gets the prize, I guess! Good job, lol.

Ah, my memory of Larsen's residence is out of date. So then both WA-1 and WA-10 are open seats and WA-6 has Dicks paired with Inslee, is that right?


Yes. And as Lewis said, Inslee is running for Governor, allowing WA-1 to move completely east of the Puget Sound with out any incumbency issues.
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« Reply #473 on: December 28, 2011, 03:36:18 pm »
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It appears WA-7 is now just 77.1% Murray, down about five % points, it's also now 72.5% white
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« Reply #474 on: December 28, 2011, 03:50:46 pm »
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Whelp, a balsy move by the republicans on the committee, they certainly emerged as the victors. I am still shocked at how the 1st and 2nd came out, this is basically as good as it gets for Republicans.

Oh and thanks for the accolades on my map earlier, I actually thought that was going to be the Republican stretch map but I appear to have been wrong.
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