US House Redistricting: Washington

[Sounder]

Washington's redistricting efforts will be interesting as the state adds a 10th Congressional District.   Another interesting factor is Eastern Washington's robust growth has caused it to out grow their two congressional districts.  One or more Western Washington districts will have to straddle the Cascades. 

[Sounder]

This is one scenario I had in mind.  It is not entirely accurate as I do not have the 2010 data.  





Close-up of Western Washington:




Changes:

1st:  becomes an entirely east sound district.  Trades Shoreline, Bainbridge, and North Kitsap, for Bellevue and Everett.

2nd: The state's NW district needs to shrink due to strong growth.  It loses South Everett and Skykomish.

3rd:  The state's SW district sheds Olympia and gains Klickitat County and the Westport Peninsula.  

4th: Due to strong growth, the district sheds Chelan, Kittitas, Klickitat, and western Adams County.  Adds Walla Walla and Columbia.

5th: Sheds Walla Walla and Columbia.  Gains Adams panhandle.  

6th: Unites the entire Olympic Peninsula by adding North Kitsap, Bainbridge, and Olympia.  Sheds Lakewood, western Tacoma, and Westport.

7th:  Trades Vashon Island and Lake Forest Park for Shoreline.

8th:  Loses downtown Bellevue, Points Cities, and portions of Pierce and South King.  Adds Woodinville, more Renton, Kittitas, and Chelan.

9th:  Loses Olympia, Lacey, Yelm, and Spanaway.  Adds Vashon Island and portion of the old 8th in Pierce and South King County.  

10th:  the new district includes Tacoma, Lakewood, Lacey, Yelm, and rural Pierce County.


Comments:

- Inslee lives on Bainbridge and would have to move under the above scenario (or retire to run for Governor as has been rumored)

- Not sure exactly where in Auburn Dave Reichert lives, so I may have chopped him out.  It would be easy to get him back in by trading away another piece to the 9th.

- Not sure where in Everett Larsen lives, so he may have been chopped too.  

- All others are secure in their district.

- A possibility to represent the new 10th would be former Congressman and current Insurance Commissioner Mike Kriedler.  I don't see the GOP with a shot there.

- The 7th, 9th, and 10th districts are pretty safe to ultra safe Democrat districts.  The 4th and 5th are safe GOP districts.  The 3rd and 8th lean Republican while the 1st and 6th lean Democrat.  The 2nd is pretty close to a swing district.


More detail:

[Sounder]

True, but large growth in the 4th district will force it to shrink down. 

According to OFM's 7/09 estimates:

Eastern Washington population:  1,484,600

Apportionment population:  673,325 

Surplus population of Eastern Washington after drawing up the 4th and 5th districts:  137,950


Population of Klickitat, Kittitas, and Chelan Counties:  135,495

Put Klickitat in the 3rd (which will likely lose Olympia area) and the other two to districts up north.  I propose the 8th, but there could be other creative solutions.  I prefer the 8th because it is the most populated, trafficked link between east and west.  The prosperous Eastside has turned much of the two eastern counties into their vacation playground and retirement destination.  Plus the two receive Seattle area TV stations, another important link. 

[Sounder]

I'll offer up my take:

I really dislike that 3rd.  Splitting up the Yakima Valley like that and attaching it the SW WA district doesn't make much sense, especially since there are better connections up north. 

[Sounder]

The likelihood of a transcascade district that doesn't include the Columbia Gorge is flat zero. It's just not going to happen.

My scenario above has the Columbia Gorge going to the 3rd.  That still leaves over 100,000 people in Eastern Washington without a congressional district.   Snoqualmie Pass is the next logical bridge.  The corridor is populated and already has many links back and forth.  Much of the growth east of the pass is being generated by Eastside Seattle.  Another advantage of going over Snoqualmie Pass is not splitting districts into multiple television markets. 

[Sounder]

I would look more closely at the growth patterns of Snoqualmie Pass and surrounding environs before you make that claim.  There's some resort property there but there always has been.  Where is this boom growth, Suncadia?  Hardly.  Suncadia casts a trivial number of votes.  Doesn't even have its own precinct.  There are a very negligible number of commuters.   Even the Hyak/Snoqualmie Pass area of the King-Kittitas border is clearly mostly retirees and resort folks, if you look at the voting rolls and Census data.  I doubt more than a handful of people make that gnarly, seasonally-dependent commute.

All of which is more than there is up at Satus Pass, an even higher elevation pass, on a two lane road vs. major interstate freeway.  Greater distance between population areas to boot! 

It is silly to divide up the Yakima Valley because some Seattle centric types don't want any icky EWers in their district.   A Snoqualmie Pass crossing makes the most geographic sense.

[Sounder]

It is silly to divide up the Yakima Valley because some Seattle centric types don't want any icky EWers in their district.

None of us said that. Or anything even remotely like that.

Never accused any of you of that.  Read the comments at the Seattle Times article on redistricting. 

Linking east and west at Snoqualmie Pass, whether it is the 8th, the new 10th, or some other district, makes a lot of geographical sense. 

[Sounder]

Here are some more entertaining examples:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8025/washington-redistricting-v20




http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7787/washington-redistricting-10-cds




http://olywa.blogspot.com/2010/11/i-redraw-your-congressional-districts.html

[Sounder]

I don't know how many folks in Issaquah or Snoqualmie are "Seattle centric" types, or who suggested that, but I'm still waiting on your evidence of huge Seattle influence on the east side of Snoqualmie Pass.

Yakima Herald-Republic via Seattle PI.com: Many make trek across mountains to jobs in King County

But for more than 1,000 Kittitas County residents, crossing the Cascade Range to get to work is no more nuts than sitting bumper to bumper in a sea of concrete somewhere on the west side.

[Sounder]

What website/program are you guys using to make your maps?

Dave 2.0, but I tried to use OFM's 7/09 #s as much as possible.   

[Sounder]

Some of the splits are gratuitous, in particular the WA-03 part of Thurston.

As a resident of there, I don't think it is a problem.  Thurston County is a weird animal.  The southern part identifies more with Centralia and Lewis County, the NW portion considers itself part of the Olympic Peninsula, Yelm and NE corner of the county are heavily influenced by Ft. Lewis and Pierce County. 

Splitting somewhere in Thurston County makes a lot of sense.  A lot more than that crazy trans-Cascade district the puts Longview and Vancouver in separate districts.  Doing the population math, the 3rd almost perfectly fits in Pacific, Lewis, Wahkiakum, Cowlitz, Clark, Skamania, and Klickitat Counties.   Makes geographical sense, and is clean.   Plus it all fits in the Portland TV market.   

[Sounder]

Longview can be kept in the third. Only a portion of NW Cowlitz County would need to be removed.

SW Washington had 644,200 people on 7/09 according to OFM.   It is large enough to be its own district.   I do not see good logic in splitting it into multiple districts.   To get the remaining population it needs, it could go north into the Lewis County centric portion of Thurston County (Grand Mound) or head up the Columbia Gorge and take in Klickitat County, a Columbia River and former aluminum producing cousin of SW Washington.  

[Sounder]

Except, if you do that, you're going to have to make an even more outrageous split crossing the mountains further north.

The outrageous split is pairing Yakima with Vancouver.  Greater distance apart, higher elevation mountain passes with two lane roads as opposed to interstate freeway, less direct links, different TV markets...  Snoqualmie Pass is the cleanest link. 

Plus I disagree with your Longview/Vancouver comments.  Both are Columbia River ports.  Camas and Longview are both paper towns.  Plenty of former Oregonians and commuters north of the Clark County line in Woodland and Kalama.

[Sounder]

Vancouver consists solely of tax evaders from Oregon and is the only place in the state growing significantly faster than the average while Longview is old industry and is in decline.

That isn't true either.  

Fastest growing places over the last couple years:

1). Tri-Cities +5.4%
2). Grant County +3.7%
3). Olympia +2.9%
4). Kittitas County 2.8%
5). Vancouver +2.7%

[Sounder]

The Tri-Cities are embedded in a declining region, though.

Not according to the population trends.  5 of the 6 fastest growing counties in WA are in or partly in the 4th.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

WA-8 grew the fastest, WA-7 and WA-6 the slowest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013739074_redistricting.html



You are a fountain of misinformation it seems.

[Sounder]

Washington State Office of Financial Management has 4/10 estimates.  OFM has access to the state's licensing data, so their numbers are pretty good.  In 2000, their estimates beat the census bureau estimates.  The numbers will be off slightly, as OFM estimates place the state's population at 6,733,250 while the 2010 count released last week was 6,724,540.

According to OFM:

Spokane, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Ferry, Okanogan, Lincoln, Adams, Whitman, Asotin, Garfield: 672,850

Benton, Franklin, Walla Walla, Columbia, Grant, Douglas, Yakima: 677,450

Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific, Waukiakum, Skamania, Klickitat: 668,850


The Adams Panhandle and the East Wenatchee bench are both good places to even out the population counts.   Using the OFM #s, it looks like the 3rd above would have to grow slightly, so I had them adding the Westport Peninsula.  It is a natural geographic split from the rest of Grays Harbor County and unites Grayland Beach into a single district.

[Sounder]

If you want to make a realistic map, I would recommend crossing at Skamania-Klickitat.

Then what?  Climb over desolate Satus Pass and snag some distant population from Yakima?  Continue along the desolate Columbia and split up the Tri-Cities? 

There will be 10 Congressional Districts, you need to throw out your old way of thinking.   A lot has changed in the last 40 years.  For one, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver are both significant population centers.   And I doubt that 40 years ago a significant percent of the working population of Kittitas County commuted to King County for work. 

[Sounder]

So why does the 15th legislative district do this?

Because of the need for 49 evenly populated state legislative districts.  It is nothing like your suggestion of linking distant population centers into one district.  The 15th is largely rural.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 Linking just Klickitat County in to a SW WA district makes a lot of sense, which is why they have done it in the past.  

When Washington had 7 Congressional Districts in the 70's, it could evenly put 7 of its 49 legislative districts into each congressional district.  Eastern Washington was two districts short so it took in two SW districts.   Since they were redistricting by legislative district, they did not have the flexibility we have now.  The 3rd, 4th, and 5th were geographical giants back then.  With more districts and more large population centers today, we can be more compact.

[Sounder]

Do you have a link about the strategy they used in the 70s? It sounds interesting!

I haven't been able to find an online version, but I have the legal definitions for most of our historical congressional districts.   When we had 7 districts, they simply list the legislative districts that make up each congressional district.  In previous years it was broken down by county and precinct.   I'll probably have to go over to the state library in Tumwater to get the definitions for the 70's legislative districts.

[Sounder]

The 8th is the interesting district to me... depending upon how it is drawn it could remain a swing district or become extremely difficult for Reichert (though if Chelan and Kittitas were added then he would probably be considerably safer).

Chelan and Kittitas are trending blue.  The newer Wenatchee suburbs are predominately in Douglas County, while the Leavenworth, Entiat, Lake Chelan, and the Lake Wenatchee areas attract nature loving Seattle area lefties.  Klickitat has always been a swing area.

Dave "Wilderness Area" Reichert would be right at home in a district that encompasses all of the Alpine Lakes Wilderness area that he is trying to expand. 

[Sounder]

Do you have any old congressional maps?

I'll try to post them tomorrow.  They are digital photographs of an atlas, so they are not great. 

[Sounder]

The historical progression was:

- single statewide district
- two statewide districts
- three statewide districts
- After 1909 it is split into geographical districts

• 1st - Island, King, Kitsap, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom
• 2nd - Chehalis (Grays Harbor), Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Jefferson, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skamania, Thurston, Wahkiakum
• 3rd - All of Eastern Washington sans Klickitat

- In 1915 the state gains the 4th & 5th districts

• 1st - city of Seattle, Kitsap
• 2nd - remainder of King County, Clallam, Island, Jefferson, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom
• 3rd - Chehalis (Grays Harbor), Mason, Pierce, Thurston, Pacific, Lewis, Cowlitz, Waukiakum, Clark, Skamania
• 4th - Klickitat, Benton, Yakima, Kittitas, Whitman, Grant, Adams, Franklin, Walla Walla, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin, 
• 5th - Ferry, Stevens, Lincoln, Spokane, Chelan, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Douglas

- In 1933 the state gains the 6th

• 1st - City of Seattle (which only extended north to 85th), Kitsap
• 2nd - King County portions (areas north of 85th, Bothell, Kenmore, Woodinville, Juanita, Avondale), Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom, Island, San Juan, Clallam, Jefferson
• 3rd - Grays Harbor, Mason, Thurston, Pacific, Lewis, Wahkiakum, Cowlitz, Clark, Skamania
• 4th - Klickitat, Benton, Yakima, Kittitas, Whitman, Grant, Adams, Franklin, Walla Walla, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin, 
• 5th - Ferry, Stevens, Lincoln, Spokane, Chelan, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Douglas
• 6th - Pierce, portion of King County not in the 1st or 2nd (pretty much everything south of Seattle and Juanita (north Kirkland)

- In 1959 the 7th is carved out.

• 3rd, 4th, and 5th stay the same
• 1st - Bainbridge Island, northern Seattle, Wilburton (south Bellevue) Bellevue, Kirkland, Kenmore, Woodinville, Shoreline
• 2nd - Clallam, Island, Jefferson, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom, Redmond, Avondale, Duvall, Skykomish
• 6th - Pierce, Algona, Covington, Kent, Des Moines, Fall City, North Bend, Issaquah, Newcastle,
• 7th - Kitsap (minus Bainbridge Island), southern Seattle, Burien, SeaTac, Factoria, Skyway, Renton, Mercer Island, Cascade (Fairwood)

- In 1961 all the districts remain the same except:

• 6th - Pierce, Kitsap (minus Bainbridge Island)
• 7th - same areas above plus the King County areas that were in the 6th

- In 1969:

• 1st - Bainbridge Island, Seattle north of Denny Way, Mercer, Island, Bellevue, Shoreline, Kenmore,
• 2nd - Clallam, NE Jefferson County, Island, San Juan, Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, NE King County
• 3rd - Western Klickitat County, Skamania, Clark, Cowlitz, Wahkiakum, Lewis, Pacific, Thurston, Grays Harbor, Mason, remainder of Jefferson County,
• 4th - Yakima, Benton, Kittitas, Whitman, Grant, Adams, Franklin, Walla Walla, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin, remainder of Klickitat
• 5th - Ferry, Stevens, Lincoln, Spokane, Chelan, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Douglas
• 6th - Kitsap (minus Bainbridge Island), Pierce, Vashon Island, King County south of S. 288th and east of 196th SE
• 7th - remainder of King County

- In 1973 they split the districts by legislative district.  I do not have the legal descriptions of the legislative districts, but it looks like:

• 1st - north Seattle
• 2nd - Whatcom, San Juan, Island, Skagit, Snohomish, NE King County
• 3rd - SE King County, Olympic Peninsula (minus Kitasp), Pierce County (minus Tacoma), SW Washington (minus south and east Clark County, and Skamania)
• 4th - Clark County along the Columbia from Vancouver, Skamania, Okanogan County west of the Okanogan River, Grant County west to the Cascades, Benton County west to the Cascades
• 5th - remainder of Eastern Washington
• 6th - Tacoma and Kitsap
• 7th - central and south Seattle

- In the 80's an 8th district was added

• 1st - north seattle suburbs, Bainbirdge, North Kitsap
• 2nd - NW WA and Olympic Peninsula
• 3rd - SW WA all the way up to the Chehalis River in Grays Harbor, minus Skamania
• 4th - Skamania, Klickitat, Benton, Franklin, Yakima, Kittitas, Grant, Okanogan, Chelan, Douglas
• 5th remainder of Eastern Washington
• 6th - Tacoma, west and central Pierce, remainder of Kitsap
• 7th - Seattle
• 8th - East and south King and Pierce

- In the 90's we pick-up the 9th and that's pretty much where we are now.

[Sounder]

The only time a CD will cross the Cascades is along the Columbia.

The only time a CD will cross the Cascades is along the Columbia.

The only time a CD will cross the Cascades is along the Columbia.

If you don't already understand this, repeat it to yourself enough times until you do...

This isn't the 70's anymore.  We have 10 districts, and almost 7,000,000 people.   The most logical crossing is at Snoqualmie Pass.  If you don't believe me, drive it.

[Sounder]

Here:

    * Districts should be convenient

It is safe to say that a district relying on Stevens Pass (ie, putting Chelan wiith the west side) could not be defended in court with a straight face.
Snoqualmie Pass is more rational, seeing as the alternatives rely on Satus Pass instead.

Chelan is pretty much geographically isolated from everywhere.   Since it doesn't have 600,000 people, it is going to have to be placed in a district that is centered around a larger population center.   It's most natural linkages are north and east, but those areas are for the most part desolate.  Outside of Moses Lake, it is off to Spokane, Tri-Cities, or Yakima before you find another decent sized population center.   Most of the year from Wenatchee you can get to Issaquah faster than what it takes to get to Spokane or Kennewick. 

[Sounder]

The Commission itself isn't entirely opposed to the notion of a King/Kittitas district. The issue is local elected and community leaders - whose input is valued immensely in practice - are extremely opposed to being included in a district with Western Washington. They consider themselves Easterners and want to remain in a district with other Easterners. They don't feel they'll be represented by a district that crosses the Cascades. The political enmity between Eastern WA vs. Western WA runs high.

What about the opinion of those folks in Yakima or Tri-Cities!?!    You suggest just kicking the can to an even further locale within Eastern Washington.  The reality is that 130,000 or so EWers will be in a predominantly western district.   The most logical splits, if you look at geography and the numbers, is to put Klickitat County in the 3rd and Kittitas and Chelan into a trans-Cascade district, whether it be the 8th or 10th.

A significant chunk of Kittitas County commutes to King County.   How many folks from Tri-Cities or Yakima commute to Clark County (or vice versa?).  

As someone who used to do block boundaries for the elections division, I'll try to poke around and see what the redistricting commission is thinking.