What are the odds that the Commission will fail to agree on a plan, and let the Washington Supreme Court do it? Do the Washington gurus have any opinion on that?
Won't happen. The Republicans would much rather take whatever deal the Democrats offer them than risk a court drawn map that would endanger Reichert.
If the Democrats actually believe that, it will end up in the Courts. The Republicans aren't going to be that stupid. Already, three of the commissioner have chosen to cross the Cascades in the same way. Seems like we have an agreement on the first element of the final map. Given how much his district shifts East, Reichert would really have to be screwed not to have a better district.
The issue is the new seat. Democrats have been spouting the meme that the final map will be a trade of given Reichert a better seat for giving the Democrats the new seat. The reality is that the bulk of the growth has been in the four districts represented by Republicans. Drawing a fifth Republican seat is as easy of a task as drawing a sixth Democratic district. The natural compromise would be keeping the five Democrats, strengthening Reichert, and drawing a "fair fight" district.
