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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Florida  (Read 23067 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #225 on: February 03, 2012, 02:05:35 pm »
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52% of Collier's population is in Mario's district under the House plan (50% under the Senate plan).
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« Reply #226 on: February 11, 2012, 11:11:18 am »
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DKE has a nice breakdown of the new districts (they also did one for California):

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/10/1063407/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Florida-cheat-sheet

I don't understand why Mica is running in FL-07, when FL-06 is mostly from his old district and it's more Republican.

Also, Crist won three of the districts in 2010, FL-13 (Bill Young), FL-21 (Ted Deutch), and FL-23 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz). Edit: four, actually, he won FL-14 (Kathy Castor) by a hair.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 11:17:45 am by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #227 on: February 11, 2012, 11:16:52 am »
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It is where he's actually from, of course. But yeah, his decision came as quite a surprise to everybody, apparently.

Also, the new 7th is basically a smaller version of Mica's 90s district; almost all of it was in it.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 11:20:57 am by Minion of Midas »Logged

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« Reply #228 on: February 11, 2012, 06:57:38 pm »
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DKE has a nice breakdown of the new districts (they also did one for California):

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/10/1063407/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Florida-cheat-sheet

I don't understand why Mica is running in FL-07, when FL-06 is mostly from his old district and it's more Republican.

Also, Crist won three of the districts in 2010, FL-13 (Bill Young), FL-21 (Ted Deutch), and FL-23 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz). Edit: four, actually, he won FL-14 (Kathy Castor) by a hair.

Comparing Obama/McCain results for the old and new districts:

Old: 10 Obama - 15 McCain

New: 10 Obama - 17 McCain

All six Dem-held CDs (Brown, Castor, Wilson, Deutch, DWS, Hastings) all heavily Obama before and after.

Bill Young's CD stays at 51-47 Obama.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's CD goes from 51-49 Obama to 51-49 McCain.

Daniel Webster's CD (Alan Grayson's old CD) is currently 53-47 Obama, and will be split into a (likely) Grayson CD at 60-39 Obama and a Webster CD at 52-47 McCain.

Allen West's old CD is 52-48 Obama and Tom Rooney's is 52-47 McCain. West will be running in Rooney's old CD at 51-48 Obama. The successor to Allen West's old CD is 57-43 Obama.

BTW, can someone explain the headings in the Fla. (and Calif.) expanded spreadsheet?
« Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 08:44:56 pm by nclib »Logged



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krazen1211
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« Reply #229 on: April 27, 2012, 03:27:44 pm »
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Revised Florida Senate map upheld.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/04/gaetz-tells-senate-elections-will-be-held-on-time.html


The GOP of course will continue to retain large majorities in the chamber.
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« Reply #230 on: April 27, 2012, 05:30:21 pm »
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The GOP of course will continue to retain large majorities in the chamber.

And in other news, water is still wet.
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« Reply #231 on: April 30, 2012, 05:22:21 pm »
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Florida Congressional map precleared.

http://atr.rollcall.com/justice-department-pre-clears-florida-congressional-map/


And supported by a judge.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/judge-rejects-dems-attempt-put-congressional-map-hold-during-trial


He said that absent a determination that the map is unconstitutional "I do not have the authority to replace it with another map while the case is pending." Absent that, he said the result would be that the 2002 map would remain in effect -- a map, he said "was admittedly drawn to favor the Republican Party and incumbents."



That would be very funny indeed if the judge used the 2002 map with 2 at large districts.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2012, 05:38:15 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #232 on: May 01, 2012, 12:15:46 am »
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Florida Congressional map precleared.

http://atr.rollcall.com/justice-department-pre-clears-florida-congressional-map/


And supported by a judge.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/judge-rejects-dems-attempt-put-congressional-map-hold-during-trial


He said that absent a determination that the map is unconstitutional "I do not have the authority to replace it with another map while the case is pending." Absent that, he said the result would be that the 2002 map would remain in effect -- a map, he said "was admittedly drawn to favor the Republican Party and incumbents."



That would be very funny indeed if the judge used the 2002 map with 2 at large districts.

I think "supported by a judge" is a fairly strong overstatement since he clearly believes the map is in violation of the new redistricting requirements.  I think the Dems only lost this one on a technicality.  Although it is certainly not great for the Dems this year, we'll have to wait and see how things go with the actual arguments over the map's constitutionality.
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« Reply #233 on: May 01, 2012, 04:49:12 pm »
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Florida Congressional map precleared.

http://atr.rollcall.com/justice-department-pre-clears-florida-congressional-map/

And supported by a judge.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/judge-rejects-dems-attempt-put-congressional-map-hold-during-trial

He said that absent a determination that the map is unconstitutional "I do not have the authority to replace it with another map while the case is pending." Absent that, he said the result would be that the 2002 map would remain in effect -- a map, he said "was admittedly drawn to favor the Republican Party and incumbents."

I think "supported by a judge" is a fairly strong overstatement since he clearly believes the map is in violation of the new redistricting requirements.  I think the Dems only lost this one on a technicality.  Although it is certainly not great for the Dems this year, we'll have to wait and see how things go with the actual arguments over the map's constitutionality.
It is not clear at all from his opinion that he believes the map is in violation of the new redistricting requirements.
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« Reply #234 on: April 07, 2013, 12:47:36 pm »
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http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/debbie-wasserman-schultz-nan-rich-rod-smith-tried-gerrymander-blamed-gop-doing-same



Florida Democrats were scheming to concoct some vicious gerrymanders.
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« Reply #235 on: April 07, 2013, 01:48:21 pm »
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Reminds me of the horrendous Dem counterproposal to the Republican gerrymander of Pa.

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/
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krazen1211
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« Reply #236 on: April 07, 2013, 02:45:51 pm »
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I'll see if I can at least get the 25th to 60% without the Monroe change. Also, it's not possible to get the 3rd to 40% with all of Alachua, Palatka, a small piece or Clay and the Duval piece (still in the 36-37% neighborhood). It can't even be done by splitting Alachua, just taking 120K of the highest percentage AA precincts. Furthermore adding more Duval than in already included in the version from this afternoon drops Democratic Performance. The best I can do with the onstruction
depicted in the attached is 52.2% Dem Performance and 38.4% Total Black/37.8% non-Hispanic Black %.


No wonder Corrine Brown was upset.
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« Reply #237 on: May 02, 2013, 09:57:12 am »
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http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/emails-show-group-sought-to-protect-wasserman-schultz-seat-in-redistricting/2118646

A liberal group involved in a lawsuit to make Florida's congressional districts less partisan engaged in its own partisan efforts by drawing Democratic-heavy Hispanic seats or trying to "scoop" Jewish voters into a district for U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the Democratic National Committee chair, emails show.

The Fair Districts map-maker, Wieneke, noted in the same email that the constitution bans favoring or disfavoring incumbents or parties.

"OK, generally we want a map that looks like it is doing this, but Democrats currently have 6 of 25 seats and all 6 of those seats are minority majority or minority coalition seats," he wrote Oct. 16, 2011. "Underlying goal is to increase the number of safe Democratic seats and the number of competitive seats."
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« Reply #238 on: May 02, 2013, 10:37:54 am »
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'Those damn leftists. Oh well, at least conservatives never try to maximize their seats or pack voters.
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« Reply #239 on: May 02, 2013, 11:20:45 am »
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'Those damn leftists. Oh well, at least conservatives never try to maximize their seats or pack voters.

Who said that?
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« Reply #240 on: May 02, 2013, 11:35:25 am »
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'Those damn leftists. Oh well, at least conservatives never try to maximize their seats or pack voters.

Who said that?

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« Reply #241 on: December 19, 2013, 03:38:22 am »
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Florida legislators have admitted to destroying documents related to the redistricting lawsuit.


Also, the Democrats proposal for a fair map have been disclosed. Here are the two proposals they have, recreated in DRA.



Map A has FL-05 drop Orlando, but pick up parts of Tallahassee, while still keeping Gainesville and Ocala.



Map B is the same, except FL-05 drops Gainesville and Ocala.


Overall major changes:


-Both maps have FL-02 become unwinnable for Democrats. In 2008, Obama got less than 40% in both versions of it.
-FL-03 gets slightly less Republican in the first map, while being a 49.2% Obama '08 district in the second map, compared to 40% under current lines. Against a nut like Ted Yoho, Democrats would have a decent chance of picking this up.
-FL-10 gets +13 points more Democratic, to the point it is a 61.2% Obama '08 district. Webster would be toast. It goes from 75% white to 54% white, 27% black, and 15% hispanic.
-FL-13 picks up all of St. Petersburg, getting +4.5 points more D-friendly as a result. Any chance of Republicans beating Alex Sink here is all but lost.
-FL-16 gets a few points more Democrat. Obama got 49.8% here in 2008.
-FL-18 gets slightly more liberal, but by less than 1 point.
-FL-20 goes from plurality-black to majority-black.
-FL-26 gets 5 points more liberal, making it a much safer seat for Joe Garcia.


In short, it would trade one gerrymander for another. I'd rather FL-05 become an entirely Jacksonville-based district, than snake to Orlando or Tallahassee, and it's just an ugly map overall.
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« Reply #242 on: December 19, 2013, 01:14:22 pm »
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Looks like I'd be in FL-18. Murphy would be leagues above Frankel, though I would much prefer Carl Domino, Adam Hasner, or Ellen Andel.

Does the new FL-18 only cover the coast, or does it extend a bit beyond the intercoastal waterway? Because I live off a side canal and don't want to look across the river at FL-18 while I am stuck here with Lois Frankel as my Rep Tongue.
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« Reply #243 on: December 19, 2013, 05:15:09 pm »


In short, it would trade one gerrymander for another. I'd rather FL-05 become an entirely Jacksonville-based district, than snake to Orlando or Tallahassee, and it's just an ugly map overall.


Would this be a better map? Both the R and D maps from the legislature assumed section 5 which is no longer in effect for FL. I preserved 3 HVAP majority CDs, 1 BVAP majority CD and a majority minority CD (23). I wasn't wild about sticking Monroe with the Gulf Coast, but there is regular ferry service between Key West and Fort Myers and it allows better use of county lines without a CD that crosses the unpopulated middle. It also matches up with the urban county clusters. I've included detail of central and south FL to show how municipal boundaries are also preserved.





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« Reply #244 on: December 19, 2013, 06:34:36 pm »
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Looks like I'd be in FL-18. Murphy would be leagues above Frankel, though I would much prefer Carl Domino, Adam Hasner, or Ellen Andel.

Does the new FL-18 only cover the coast, or does it extend a bit beyond the intercoastal waterway? Because I live off a side canal and don't want to look across the river at FL-18 while I am stuck here with Lois Frankel as my Rep Tongue.

FL-18 doesn't extend into the coast at all, that yellow part on the coast is just a water district that can't be split in DRA. You'd probably still be in FL-22.
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« Reply #245 on: December 22, 2013, 09:24:18 am »
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Would this be a better map? Both the R and D maps from the legislature assumed section 5 which is no longer in effect for FL. I preserved 3 HVAP majority CDs, 1 BVAP majority CD and a majority minority CD (23). I wasn't wild about sticking Monroe with the Gulf Coast, but there is regular ferry service between Key West and Fort Myers and it allows better use of county lines without a CD that crosses the unpopulated middle. It also matches up with the urban county clusters. I've included detail of central and south FL to show how municipal boundaries are also preserved.

I personally think that's a very reasonable map. One of my biggest problems has been how Republicans have been carving up St. Petersburg. There's no reason at all why it shouldn't be in one district. You have a St. Petersburg-centred district, a Tampa-centred district, and a suburban Hillsborough district. Personally, I'd rather see an entirely Duval County-based CD-04. And other than the rather unsightly CD-17, it's a very nice map.
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« Reply #246 on: December 22, 2013, 11:32:30 am »
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Well, CD-17 is unsightly more because it follows county boundaries than any attempt at gerrymandering.
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« Reply #247 on: December 22, 2013, 02:51:57 pm »
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Florida has a comparable black population to Georgia, which of course has 4 black districts.  Or Texas, which also has 4 black districts. Or New York, which also has 4 black districts. It would be quite curious to see the legislature thus create a Florida map with only 2 black districts.
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« Reply #248 on: December 22, 2013, 06:47:40 pm »
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Florida has a comparable black population to Georgia, which of course has 4 black districts.  Or Texas, which also has 4 black districts. Or New York, which also has 4 black districts. It would be quite curious to see the legislature thus create a Florida map with only 2 black districts.

How concentrated a minority population is also has an impact on how easy it is to draw minority-majority districts.
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« Reply #249 on: December 22, 2013, 09:09:36 pm »

Florida has a comparable black population to Georgia, which of course has 4 black districts.  Or Texas, which also has 4 black districts. Or New York, which also has 4 black districts. It would be quite curious to see the legislature thus create a Florida map with only 2 black districts.

How concentrated a minority population is also has an impact on how easy it is to draw minority-majority districts.

Exactly. Without Section 5 the question of compactness for a VRA district looms large. When a minority only exists in a number of disconnected urban centers does Section 2 mandate the creation of a district where that minority can elect a representative of choice? If so, how much of a stretch is permitted to have a mandated minority district? If the Louisiana suit moves forward it may well provide an answer.
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