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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Florida  (Read 22125 times)
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BRTD
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« on: December 22, 2010, 10:59:43 pm »
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Now that we know it has two new seats (ugh, I was soooooooooooooooo hoping it'd be denied the second due to its current decline, maybe it'll lose a seat in 2020 Smiley ), so I drew this new non-partisan map:





District analysis coming up...
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2010, 11:13:10 pm »
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FL-01 (blue): Not much different from the current one. Very safe R seat.
FL-02 (green): Also not much different. This district isn't as conservative as the other ones Blue Dogs were bounced from, and it still has some white liberals, so it might flip back in a good year.
FL-03 (purple): Quite a safe R seat. It has Gainesville but I doubt that's enough.
FL-04 (red): South bit of Jacksonville plus some very Republican counties. Safe R.
FL-05 (yellow): Practically a pure toss-up.
FL-06 (teal): Very interesting seat. Very Republican Nassau county plus most of Jacksonville, including the black parts. About 35% black. Probably voted for Obama narrowly, but only due to a surge in black turnout. This one could flip all over the place depending on turnout models, kind of like OH-01. Of course the Democrats need to nominate someone other than Corrine Brown.
FL-07 (gray): Very safe R seat.
FL-08 (light purple): Very safe D seat now that the gerrymandering in this area has been eliminated. Capable of returning the glorious ALAN GRAYSON to office! YES YES YES YES YES YES!

FL-09 (teal): A bunch of boring suburbs and some Democratic areas. Call it an R-leaning swing seat.
FL-10 (pink): This is the seat that douchebag Webster who will be taking Alan Grayson's seat but isn't fit to shine Grayson's shoes will probably take. Pretty safe R.
FL-11 (olive): Coastal seat but pretty Republican. Only Democratic area is St. Lucie.
FL-12 (light blue): Interesting seat, the two counties were only about 51% McCain. But that's still R+6 or so, and this isn't an area where there's lots of swing voters on either side. Any non-horrendous Republican could probably hold it, but it would never be truly "safe".
FL-13 (pink): Once the now misnamed Young retires, this will flip. And he almost certainly will in the next 10 years.
FL-14 (brown): Tough to tell how this one voted with no partisan data, but must be pretty Republican.
FL-15 (orange): Not like the old gerrymandered monstrosity. A bit less safe, but any competent Democrat should easily hold it. Kathy Castor should have no problems.
FL-16 (light green): Pretty safe Republican seat.
FL-17 (dark purple): Same. That election-stealing douche Buchanan should hold easily.
FL-18 (yellow): Decently Republican, but flippable in a good year.
FL-19 (that weird greenish color): Very safe Republican seat. Hellhole.
FL-20 (pink): Majority black, Alcee Hastings' new seat.
FL-21 (maroon): Also majority black, Frederica Wilson will hold.
FL-22 (brown): The old gerrymandered monstrosity that black Republican nutjob will hold is gone. This one will flip Dem.
FL-23 (tealish): I don't know if Deutch or Wasserman-Schultz is more likely to run here, but either one will win.
FL-24 (purple): Same, the other one of the Jewish Democrats will win here.
FL-25 (dark pink): Cuban majority, that new nutjob or Diaz-Balart will hold it.
FL-26 (gray): Same, probably will be the seat for Diaz-Balart.
FL-27 (light green): Cuban majority, the weakest Cuban seat but a gay-friendly moderate like Ros-Lehtinen shouldn't have much problems.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2010, 01:18:49 pm »
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Did you use the new population estimates or the old ones? I did a map this morning and some of the county proportions look a lot different from yours.

I tried to minimize county splits, but sometimes it's unavoidable. Open the images in a new window to see them more clearly.



Starting at the panhandle...



FL-01 (blue, Jeff Miller - R) - Not much changed here (the district shrunk toward the west), extremely safe R district.
FL-02 (green, Steve Southerland - R) - Shifts a little to the west accordingly, but still will be a safe Republican district.
FL-03 (purple, Corrine Brown - D) - The current monstrosity gets eliminated, and instead we have a greater Jacksonville area district. Would probably lean to the Dems, but Brown would have no chance of holding this seat.
FL-04 ( red, Ander Crenshaw - R) - Contracts to become all of the area surrounding Jacksonville. Safe R.
FL-06 (dark teal, Cliff Stearns - R) - Gainesville is balanced out by some heavily-Republican counties. Should probably still lean R, though elections might actually be interesting in this district for once.
FL-07 (grey, John Mica - R) - The problem is Mica lives outside this district (he's in Winter Park in Orange County, the same place Daniel Webster lives). He'd have to move, but this district would be safe for him, assuming he'd win a primary here (it's mostly new territory to him).
FL-27 (light mint green, new district) - Open seat consisting of Volusia, Flagler, Putnam, and part of St. Johns. Swing district.

Central Florida:



FL-05 (yellow, Rich Nugent - R) - Fairly Republican district. Shouldn't be too tough to hold.
FL-08 (purple, Daniel Webster - R) - Mostly Orlando and western Orange County. This one would probably be fairly Democratic, especially since it's 48% white, 26% black, and 19% Hispanic.
FL-09 (light teal, Gus Bilirakis - R) - Mostly unchanged, the borders are a bit different. Should lean R.
FL-10 (magenta, Bill Young - R) - Basically the entire peninsula of Pinellas County. I'm guessing the bits that are chopped out currently are Democratic, so it probably moves a few points to the Dems.
FL-11 (light green, Kathy Castor - D) - Tampa and the surrounding area, safe Dem.
FL-12 (light purple, Dennis Ross - R) - All of Polk and part of Osceola. Should have a decent Republican lean.
FL-15 (orange, Bill Posey - R) - Brevard, Indian River, and a little bit of Volusia. Definitely a Republican district.
FL-24 (dark purple, Sandy Adams - R) - I have no idea where Sandy Adams lives, but this is the other half of Orange County, and parts of Osceola and Seminole. I'm guessing this one would either be a swing district or lean Dem? It's 53% white, 33% Hispanic.

South Florida:



FL-13 (pink, Vern Buchanan - R) - Buchanan lives in Sarasota, which is in the southern end of the district. Mostly Manatee and parts of eastern Hillsborough. Should have a slight Republican lean.
FL-14 (brown, Connie Mack - R) - Hard to see, but this one's part of Lee, and almost all of Hendry and Collier. Safe R.
FL-16 (light green, Tom Rooney - R) - Rooney is in the tiny slice of northern Palm Beach County. The district stretches across the state from St. Lucie and Indian River to DeSoto and Hardee. Should have a decent Republican lean.
FL-26 (grey, new district) - Charlotte and parts of Sarasota and Lee. Definitely leans Republican.

Miami area:



FL-17 (purple, Frederica Wilson - D) - Pretty much unchanged; 54% black.
FL-18 (yellow, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - R) - Also pretty much the same, although it picks up the mainland part of Monroe to keep the county within one district. 61% Hispanic.
FL-21 (dark red, Mario Diaz-Balart - R) - V-shaped to take in all the non-black northern parts of Miami. 76% Hispanic.
FL-25 (pink, David Rivera - R) - Pretty much the same as before. 73% Hispanic.

Palm Beach and Broward Counties:




FL-19 (brownish yellow, Ted Deutch - D) - Most of the white parts of Palm Beach County; safe Dem. I didn't even bother trying to figure out where the Reps in the southeastern part of the state live, given how much of a mess the current map is.
FL-20 (pink, Allen West - R) - Picks up quite a bit of territory from FL-22, which should push the district to the Dems.
FL-22 (brownish red, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz - D) - Southern Palm Beach and northern Broward; I'm assuming it's still a Dem district, although probably not as packed-in. It picks up some parts of FL-19.
FL-23 (light green, Alcee Hastings - D) - The black parts of Palm Beach and Broward Counties connected by a big tract of vacant land. 52% black.
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2010, 02:56:52 pm »
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I assume that if Republicans choose to ignore the fair redistricting amendment and lawsuits ensue then Florida could have a court-drawn map.
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« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2010, 12:35:14 am »
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Shouldn't there be a new Hispanic majority district in South Florida?
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« Reply #5 on: December 25, 2010, 12:44:15 am »
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I used the new population estimates. Just confirmed it.
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« Reply #6 on: December 25, 2010, 01:25:42 am »
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Shouldn't there be a new Hispanic majority district in South Florida?

Problem is there's nowhere for one to go. There have to be two black-majority seats and three Hispanic seats. Also, dilute the Cubans too much and you get Democratic seats. A 55% Hispanic seat in South Florida would probably elect a white Democrat before any Hispanic of either party as whites would control the Democratic primary and Cubans would be outvoted by the combined voting strength of whites and Puerto Ricans/other Hispanics.
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« Reply #7 on: December 25, 2010, 09:36:23 am »
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Also, one of the two new districts added in 2002 was a Hispanic district in South Florida (the other being a district near Orlando), so it wouldn't make sense to add a new district in the same place this time.
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« Reply #8 on: December 25, 2010, 05:18:28 pm »
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Shouldn't there be a new Hispanic majority district in South Florida?

Problem is there's nowhere for one to go. There have to be two black-majority seats and three Hispanic seats. Also, dilute the Cubans too much and you get Democratic seats. A 55% Hispanic seat in South Florida would probably elect a white Democrat before any Hispanic of either party as whites would control the Democratic primary and Cubans would be outvoted by the combined voting strength of whites and Puerto Ricans/other Hispanics.

I thought someone had posted a previous map which had 4 Hispanic seats in South Florida but perhaps I was mistaken.  I'll have to play around with it myself again.
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« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2010, 05:49:27 am »
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Is it technically possible to draw a Non-Cuban Hispanic Opportunity district? Not that Republicans will want to, or can legally be compelled to even if possible, of course; though it would make a lot of sense.
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« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2010, 09:14:17 am »
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I think Orlando is the only place outside of Miami with a big enough Hispanic population for that. You can draw about a 41% Hispanic district across Orange and Osceola Counties. That's assuming that the Hispanics who live there aren't Cuban, about which I have no idea.
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« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2010, 09:36:05 am »
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Dade has lots of non-Cuban Hispanics... lots of South Americans especially... and is where I meant. (And yeah, the Hispanics at Orlando are mostly Portorican IIRC. Lots of Mexicans too.)
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« Reply #12 on: December 26, 2010, 09:57:01 am »
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Dade has lots of non-Cuban Hispanics... lots of South Americans especially... and is where I meant. (And yeah, the Hispanics at Orlando are mostly Portorican IIRC. Lots of Mexicans too.)

The main problem you might run into is differentials in citizenship rates between Cuban-Americans and others, followed by whether non-Cubans live in distinct neighborhoods from Cubans or not. Right now all of Miami-Dade not in Meek's old district is represented by Cuban-American reps so you'd have to dislodge one of them with redistricting existing seats, which may not work, given how easily the one Diaz-Balart shifted from one district to another. Interestingly, the Census indicates there are about 400,000 Hispanics in Broward County who aren't included in any of JohnnyLongtorso's Miami-Dade districts. I remember hearing that Weston was nicknamed "Westonzuela," and also that Pembroke Pines has a large Latino population, but none of that necessarily excludes Cubans.
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« Reply #13 on: December 26, 2010, 10:08:37 am »
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It looks like the Hispanics in Broward are too spread out to make a Hispanic-opportunity district. I just messed around with it, and to get about to 35% Hispanic, it has to stretch the entire length of the county.
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« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2010, 12:58:19 am »
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Maps of South Florida I made using the the "new estimates" button in the app.  There are two black majority districts and 4 Hispanic majority districts.  Here's the racial breakdown of all 9 that I drew.

FL-17 dark purple (54% Black, 25% Hispanic, 17% White)
FL-18 yellow (58% Hispanic, 34% White, 5% Black)
FL-19  pea green (65% White, 20% Hispanic, 12% Black)
FL-20 light pink (71% White, 19% Hispanic, 6% Black)
FL-21 dark red (57% Hispanic, 32% White, 8% Black)
FL-22 brown (73% White, 14% Hispanic, 10% Black)
FL-23 light blue (53% Black, 27% White, 16% Hispanic)
FL-25 dark pink (61% Hispanic, 29% White, 7% Black)
FL-27 bright green (68% Hispanic, 20% White, 10% Black)

If this map can be made with Dave's app then I'm sure a much more sophisticated map could be made that balances out the Hispanics enough to get four districts that are at least 60% Hispanic assuming the app's population estimates aren't too far removed from the current racial distribution.
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« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2010, 09:22:16 am »
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That's a really interesting map, I didn't think it was possible but you've proven it is. However, I would say that the yellow district puts Ros-Lehtinen at risk of losing to a Democrat.
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« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2010, 12:51:03 pm »
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Why wouldn't the Republicans run the 3rd from Jacksonville to Tallahassee (obviously noncompact) sucking up all the black areas?

The amendment that was passed allows for exceptions based on federal law. Justify it by saying you're avoiding retrogression.

Also, draw a new compact district in Orlando. Alan Grayson makes his comeback here. Once you put into place the 3rd and the new 26th, the rest of Northern Florida is pretty Republican.

The only rep that seems absolutely dead is Allen West, there's no way to get a clean Republican district in Broward/Palm Beach.
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« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2010, 06:55:12 pm »
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Coalition districts (it's 49% black) don't get protected the way majority-black (or majority-Hispanic) districts do. This is why Corinne Brown is trying to challenge the fair districts law rather than waiting for the map to try and challenge it on VRA grounds.
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« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2011, 10:15:36 am »
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Not a single gratuitious county split and no attention whatsoever to the VRA or to racial composition of anything until I was finished. (So, yeah, fantasy map - though it does not really matter outside South Florida.) No attention to city boundaries, preferring roads, rivers, and edges of densely built territory instead.



Central Florida enhance:



No South Florida enhance because it's a fantasy map anyways. Though I preserved the three Cuban seats without actually trying... no Black seats though. Well, one nearly even threeway that Frederica Wilson probably could win.

Sine the western one of the Orlando seats is just 44% White, you could probably claim that it's a successor seat to Corrine Brown's. Though only to a sympathetic DOJ and judge.

I'm very proud of Donut Jacksonville, and of splitting Lee County along the Caloosahatchee.
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« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2011, 03:15:36 pm »
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This is as nonwhite as you'll get a purely Duval district, I think. 52% White. Corrine Brown wouldn't ever be safe, I guess, but she ought to ba able win both a Democratic Primary and a General Election under normal circumstances.



These are Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach with absolutely no gratuitous county splits ... and two Black-opportunity districts.





Green (also includes all of Monroe County) 57% Hispanic, 28% Anglo, 12% Black
Purple 70% Hispanic, 23% White, 6% Black
Red a whopping 82% Hispanic, 9% White, 8% Black
Yellow 48% Black, 25% Hispanic, 22% White, and a nice compact district it is
Teal 57% White, 26% Hispanic, 13% Black
Grey 51% White, 22% Hispanic, 22% Black
Monstrous Lavender 39% White, 38% Black, 19% Hispanic
Monstrous Turquoise 75% White, 16% Hispanic, 6% Black

the white bit of Palm Beach County belongs with a district to the north, as above.
You see the issue. There are additional Black areas in Broward County that I can't get to without an additional county split that I am not prepared to do, and there are next to no Blacks left in Palm Beach. Someone with A LOT of patience could perhaps nudge it just over the edge into Black plurality. One might also try to draw a Black district entirely inside Broward County instead.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2011, 12:23:42 am »
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Your central Florida map is pretty much what I drew. I never considered that one could argue the new seat in the Orlando area is the successor to Corrine Brown's seat, though I don't see that going far with recent court decisions and the fact that it's about even black and Hispanic.

Since south Florida is just one giant mass I don't think not crossing county lines is that big of a deal, and even if honored to preserve Alcee Hastings seat you basically have to connect two completely different areas with a bunch of empty territory which is far more egregious than merely crossing the county to include black neighborhoods that straddle the border. Even the majority black Palm Beach seat there would no doubt violate the "communities of interest" rule but it'll be ignored no doubt, no one really has any reason to challenge it, even the Democrats wouldn't gain anything by dissolving the seat as it's not possible to draw any non-Cuban Republican districts in south Florida without resorting to a now illegal monstrosity to most districts described as gerrymandered monstrosities to shame like the current FL-22.
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« Reply #21 on: January 13, 2011, 09:34:07 am »
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I found that you could hit majority black for Alcee Hastings just by drawing a really narrow strip that connects Fort Lauterdale to West Palm Beach, or thereabouts. That leavea a second narrow strip between the 1st strip and the Atlantic Ocean.

Rather than have that mass in the Everglades, just connect Delray and Deerfield beaches from the existing map. It's kind of shaped like a french fry.

As long as you don't give Allen West a FL-22 he can win (and I see no way to do that), I doubt anyone complains.
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« Reply #22 on: January 13, 2011, 10:13:59 am »
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Thing is the mass in the Everglades is also majority black.
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« Reply #23 on: January 13, 2011, 10:19:33 am »
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Thing is the mass in the Everglades is also majority black.

Yeah, but aren't there like 10 people living there?
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« Reply #24 on: January 13, 2011, 11:38:49 am »
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Thing is the mass in the Everglades is also majority black.

Yeah, but aren't there like 10 people living there?

Looks like 15,000 in Belle Glade, mostly agricultural workers.
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