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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Florida  (Read 23591 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #150 on: December 01, 2011, 12:47:39 pm »
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Just because the state once created it for reasons (officially) other than VRA doesn't mean it'll make that claim this time.

I'm not sure where this idea came from.

Prior court opinion states that FL-03 was drawn in 2002 as a black performing district and that such was intentional, and that such was fully consistent with a legal plan.

Doesn't mean there won't be a lawsuit about it! First, that was from a case in federal court regarding the VRA, whereas any new lawsuit will be in state court over the racial minority standards of the FDA- which might end up with a very different interpretation. Someone could make the case that the district was drawn with the intent to help an incumbent or political party, the prevention of which under the FRA is of equal importance to ensuring minority representation. Also note that the amendment's wording even seems to suggest that not favoring incumbents is more important than all Federal law.

Yeah... this stuff is definitely going to court.

Yes, of course there will be a lawsuit about it. I just don't see how it can get anywhere in federal court as it has not over a decade now. In state court they will surely make the exact argument you already posted.

In fact they already are making that argument.


Incidentally the 2002 district court was careful enough not to address whether FL-03 was a 'required' district per se. They merely said it was valid, which is of course good enough for the GOP's purpose.
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« Reply #151 on: December 01, 2011, 01:17:50 pm »
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Just because the state once created it for reasons (officially) other than VRA doesn't mean it'll make that claim this time.

I'm not sure where this idea came from.

Prior court opinion states that FL-03 was drawn in 2002 as a black performing district and that such was intentional, and that such was fully consistent with a legal plan.

Doesn't mean there won't be a lawsuit about it! First, that was from a case in federal court regarding the VRA, whereas any new lawsuit will be in state court over the racial minority standards of the FDA- which might end up with a very different interpretation.

To the extent that the FDA language goes further than the VRA that could be litigated. If the FDA language is less expansive, the issue is moot until, and unless, the VRA is repealed/struck_down.

The FDA language seems to go further than the VRA in treating French-speaking Haitians as a distinct language group, rather than as generic "Blacks." I doubt there is a Haitian district to be drawn. Other than that, there isn't any there there.
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« Reply #152 on: December 01, 2011, 01:46:21 pm »
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Wait... haha, oh wow. I've just realized something here.

Hispanics are an ethnic minority, not a racial minority. If you recall, on the census forms this year, they even explicitly stated that "Hispanic origins are not a race." The census this year also didn't ask any data about language, so there's not even any simple quantitative way to determine anything about "language minorities."

Does this mean that Hispanics aren't covered under the FDA, unless they can figure out a way to accurately guestimate the number and locations of native Spanish speakers who speak English poorly enough to be considered a "language minority"?

Furthermore, wouldn't this mean that the state legislature somehow has to prove that "no incumbent or party was intended to benefit" from the heavily Republican and incumbent-friendly Cuban districts in Miami-Dade, since under the FRA that requirement has higher priority than abiding by the VRA?

Oh boy, it's the highway to litigation hell!
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« Reply #153 on: December 01, 2011, 03:16:19 pm »
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Wait... haha, oh wow. I've just realized something here.

Hispanics are an ethnic minority, not a racial minority. If you recall, on the census forms this year, they even explicitly stated that "Hispanic origins are not a race." The census this year also didn't ask any data about language, so there's not even any simple quantitative way to determine anything about "language minorities."

Does this mean that Hispanics aren't covered under the FDA, unless they can figure out a way to accurately guestimate the number and locations of native Spanish speakers who speak English poorly enough to be considered a "language minority"?

Furthermore, wouldn't this mean that the state legislature somehow has to prove that "no incumbent or party was intended to benefit" from the heavily Republican and incumbent-friendly Cuban districts in Miami-Dade, since under the FRA that requirement has higher priority than abiding by the VRA?

The problem with the last claim is that it isn't true. Section 3) explicitly denies any prioritization.
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« Reply #154 on: December 01, 2011, 05:24:44 pm »
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Wait... haha, oh wow. I've just realized something here.

Hispanics are an ethnic minority, not a racial minority.
The Florida law talks of "racial or language minority". While that is a different word (and community survey data on language use exist), the intent is clear I believe.
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« Reply #155 on: December 01, 2011, 07:15:19 pm »
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FL 22 is my district. My house is in it litterally by 10-20 feet...I am tired of West pretending he is Jewish, but Frankel scares me. And now that the northern part of the district is going to Rooney. Today the Palm Beach Post stated that West might challenge Rooney for his seat rather then risking his own here.
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« Reply #156 on: December 01, 2011, 09:44:27 pm »
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The problem with the last claim is that it isn't true. Section 3) explicitly denies any prioritization.

It only denies prioritization for factors that are within the same subsection Smiley

Note that Subsection 2 specifies that its standards aren't required if they conflict with the "standards in Subsection 1 or with Federal law," while Subsection 1 states its requirements as standards that must be followed- seemingly, even if they contradict Federal law. Hell, if the Florida GOP really wanted to, they could probably get the whole amendment thrown out by the Federal courts for violating the Supremacy Clause.

Wait... haha, oh wow. I've just realized something here.

Hispanics are an ethnic minority, not a racial minority.
The Florida law talks of "racial or language minority". While that is a different word (and community survey data on language use exist), the intent is clear I believe.

Fair enough. After doing some research, it turns out the VRA uses the term "language minority group" to cover Hispanics as well, so the intent is definitely clear.
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« Reply #157 on: December 01, 2011, 09:53:10 pm »
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The amendment wasn't designed to reform redistricting. It was designed to spawn litigation with the purpose of moving redistricting to the Courts.
I haven't done any research on the amendment's background so I don't know if you're correct regarding its designed purpose (I wouldn't be surprised, rather, if the amendment's backers were just a bunch of well-intentioned idiots) but given how badly that amendment is written, I think you're right regarding the end result. I don't see how the Florida Supreme Court won't end up drawing the map.
The backers were the LWV, which would qualify as well-meaning; and several racial advocacy groups including the Florida NAACP, and Democracia Ahora (Democracy Now).  

When showing what they considered were bad districts, they avoided showing CD-3 or the districts along the Gold Coast.   Voters probably thought of those districts, but didn't realize that the amendment would do nothing to eliminate them.

When the legislative committee announced their statewide hearing tour last summer, these groups including the ACLU, launched a publicity campaign for the legislature to "show us your map" apparently in an attempt to build a legal case on "intent of the legislature", and accused the committee of muzzling legislators.  What actually happened was that they were interested in listening to the general public.

The Florida Constitution requires redistricting be done in the -2 year.  The legislature did deliberately call a special redistricting session in January 2012; and the Florida Constitution permits prefiling of legislation and committee hearings before a session, which is why the plans have just now been pre-released.   Any map proposed by a legislator last summer would have been idle musing of individual legislators.

The newspaper articles included quotes from Gerald Hebert (Hee-Burt, not Eh-Bear) of the "Campaign Legal Center" that hearings were dog and pony shows.  Hebert is a frequent lawyer for Democrats in redistricting cases and used to work for the USDOJ.  In 2000, he was working for Martin Frost going around to hearings in Texas pointing out how the legislature back in the 1960s had made Joe Pool run statewide in order to protect incumbents such as Sam Rayburn and Wright Patman.  This was all to establish a state policy of protecting incumbents if the court had to draw the districts.

Joe Pool had run for Congress from a district and lost.  This was quite remarkable, since he was the only Democrat to lose in Texas.  Moreover, he received as many votes as Rayburn and Patman combined.   Joe Pool was from Dallas, and at that time Dallas County was a single district, the most populous in the country at the time according to a footnote in Wesberry v Sanders with 960,000 persons.   After the 1960 census, when Texas gained two districts, rather than add districts, they were elected at large, and Joe Pool ran and won.  There is no evidence that the State of Texas forced him to run at large.

(George HW) Bush v Martin was in the courts requiring equal population congressional districts.  It was only a matter of timing that the SCOTUS ruled on Wesberry first.  So Hebert was arguing on behalf of Frost on incumbent protection, but based on the Democrats really denying voters in urban areas the right to vote, because they would vote for a Republican.  After Texas did provide equal population districts, Texas had 3 Republican Congressmen.

You can bet that Hebert will be a lawyer in the Florida case after the legislature finalizes its map and Scott signs it.

The whole purpose of the initiative was to have the Florida Supreme Court draw the map.  The LWV might have been useful idiots.
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« Reply #158 on: December 01, 2011, 10:11:14 pm »
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Hispanics are an ethnic minority, not a racial minority. If you recall, on the census forms this year, they even explicitly stated that "Hispanic origins are not a race." The census this year also didn't ask any data about language, so there's not even any simple quantitative way to determine anything about "language minorities."

Does this mean that Hispanics aren't covered under the FDA, unless they can figure out a way to accurately guestimate the number and locations of native Spanish speakers who speak English poorly enough to be considered a "language minority"?

Furthermore, wouldn't this mean that the state legislature somehow has to prove that "no incumbent or party was intended to benefit" from the heavily Republican and incumbent-friendly Cuban districts in Miami-Dade, since under the FRA that requirement has higher priority than abiding by the VRA?

Oh boy, it's the highway to litigation hell!
The VRA is to enforce the 14th and 15th amendments.  Congress would claim that they were ensuring "equal protection" for an identifiable class of persons (ethnic minority) against discrimination (failure to racially gerrymander) on the basis of that identification.  Since "race" and "color" are actually rather meaningless classifications, it could be argued that the 15th Amendment is really about protecting ethnic minorities, whose identity may only partially be based on race.

The ACS does include questions about language and citizenship, and is statistically reliable over a 5-year period for small areas, census tracts and block groups.  It has definitely been used in Texas for determining the HCVAP and will likely be used in Florida, especially since some groups such as Haitian Creoles and non-Cuban and non-Puerto Rican Hispanics will have extremely low citizenship rates.
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« Reply #159 on: December 03, 2011, 04:11:18 am »
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I read somewhere, that FL02 is now a better target for a white Southern Democrat. It is a possible pick up in wave year.
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« Reply #160 on: December 04, 2011, 07:11:40 am »
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Is 21 a Collier or a Dade district?
Dade.
442k Dade, 88% Hispanic, 56.8% McCain
157k Collier, 53% Anglo, 36% Hispanic, 57.8% McCain
76k Broward, 50% Hispanic, 23% Black, 18% Anglo, 35.3% McCain
19k Hendry, 54% Hispanic, 41% White, 59.9% McCain
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« Reply #161 on: December 04, 2011, 03:16:12 pm »
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Is 21 a Collier or a Dade district?
Dade.
442k Dade, 88% Hispanic, 56.8% McCain
157k Collier, 53% Anglo, 36% Hispanic, 57.8% McCain
76k Broward, 50% Hispanic, 23% Black, 18% Anglo, 35.3% McCain
19k Hendry, 54% Hispanic, 41% White, 59.9% McCain

Though they did have to pick up a pretty good (population) chunk of Collier.  
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« Reply #162 on: December 04, 2011, 04:00:23 pm »
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Drawing three Hispanic districts in Dade alone is foolproof easy, but three Republican Hispanic seats is not. Going to Collier instead of drawing a district of Collier + Lee south of the Caloosahatchee not just makes that easier, it also makes the map look better in a couple of places elsewhere, worse in a lot more others, and helps with keeping West's district winnable.
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« Reply #163 on: December 04, 2011, 04:27:03 pm »
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Drawing three Hispanic districts in Dade alone is foolproof easy, but three Republican Hispanic seats is not. Going to Collier instead of drawing a district of Collier + Lee south of the Caloosahatchee not just makes that easier, it also makes the map look better in a couple of places elsewhere, worse in a lot more others, and helps with keeping West's district winnable.

I know very little about Florida demographics, but based on all this, do you think there's enough basis here for someone to make a case that this violates the Fair Redistricting Amendment?

Since most Hispanics down there are Cuban, and most Cubans vote Republican, would making all three Hispanic districts Republican be required to maintain the "equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to elect the candidate of their choice"? If not, one could easily argue that there was intent to favor a political party, and that adherence to political boundaries was ignored where it wasn't necessary to do so.

Also, is the difference between Collier and Collier + Lee stark enough that someone could reasonably argue there was intent to protect West? And when you say that it makes the map worse in a lot more places than it improves, do you mean that on the whole it makes districts less compact and/or adhere to existing boundaries less (thus causing the map to violate subsection 2 of the amendment with no overriding factors allowing it to do so)?

Sorry for the ignorant questions, I'm just really curious what the eventual fallout of the inevitable court cases will be. Smiley
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« Reply #164 on: December 04, 2011, 04:56:47 pm »
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To the best of my ability and comprehension of the state, and within the constraints of not splitting precincts and keeping all districts within 500 of target, this is how I would have drawn the state. I worked from the Senate draft.







1 75-14-5 / 78-13-5 (numbers are anglo-black-hispanic as per DRA, total and VAP), 67.6% McCain
This is as the draft has it, except they could split the precinct at the northeast corner of Holmes for a slightly more reasonable split of the county overall.
2 66-25-5 / 68-24-5, 52.0% McCain
The six county area from Jackson to Hamilton belongs together (they form sort of a North Florida Black Belt, even though only Gadsden is majority Black). Population constraints make it impossible to quite follow up on that notion (unless you want to remove the southernmost precinct of Jefferson and split Wasilla. But that's clearly gerrymandering.) You see why the Senate plan adds Taylor and a small part of Madison instead of Madison and half of Hamilton, of course. Not safe for Southerland.
3 74-14-7 / 76-13-7, 60.0% McCain
Fairly minor changes from what the draft calls the sixth. Yeah, I fixed the numbering scheme for them, seeing as the original north-to-south scheme is still very visible.
4 72-13-8 / 75-12-7, 64.0% McCain
5 36-49-10 / 40-46-9, 67.4% Obama
I tried quite a few arrangements before keeping the 3rd roughly in place (it's painted black here rather than the default yellow, partly because the 18th is close by but also because it's a crawling black snake, of course.) Part of the issue was my inability to keep reasonableish map shapes I tried (e.g. Gainesville, Palatka, Black parts of Jacksonville and Ocala) from going over 50.00% Anglo. Then, there's the size of the Jacksonville Metro to consider - defining that as Duval, Nassau, Clay and the parts of St Johns I included in the fourth here. Oh, and Palm Valley which stayed in the 7th.) Much too large for one seat, much too small for two. The draft has it in four seats, I would have loved to cut it to two but it just wouldn't map out right. So now it's in three. The corridor in eastern Clay through the poshest white suburbs remains super-annoying, of course.
6 82-4-11 / 84-4-9, 52.4% McCain
I initially intended to keep this unchanged from the draft, but eventually I switched out the part of Polk for part of Citrus. Would be safe R.
7 76-10-11 / 79-9-9, 51.5% McCain
Yeah, the bit of Saint Johns in the fourth is extremely Republican. No, I didn't plan on removing it throughout (I toyed with the notion, off and on). That was actually part of my last major revision. Is this still a safe R seat without it? I am not sure.
8 77-10-10 / 81-9-8, 57.6% McCain
A close cousing of what the draft calls the 26th.
9 72-7-15 / 75-6-14, 54.4% McCain
Safe for a Bilirakis. I played with options that wouldn't have had it run this far south, too.
10 74-12-8 / 78-11-7, 56.3% Obama
The Pinellas seat. Fun fact: the House committee report actually contemplates the option of drawing two D sinks in Tampa Bay (though they don't call it that) by crossing the Petersburg-Bradenton bridge.
11 44-21-29 / 48-20-27, 62.7% Obama
See? Removing Bradenton and St Pete minorities doesn't really change the figures here at all as they're still plenty of minorities in Hillsborough to suck up. The white share, that is - five points off the Obama share.
12 64-13-18 / 69-12-15, 53.1% McCain
Polk County sort of gets its own district. Also sort of a descendant of Webster's district in the draft, but without the corridor through central Orlando Whiteyland.
13 79-6-12 / 83-5-10, 52.2% McCain
Slightly more complex than the Manatee+Sarasota-Myakka City district that's also possible; and more Republican as a result (but still 0.9 points less than the draft map's.) I removed North Port which belongs with Port Charlotte anyways, to have this suck up all of the Hillsborough population surplus.
14 66-9-23  / 72-7-19, 57.6% McCain
As advertised above.
15 75-6-16 / 79-6-13, 55.9% McCain
Charlotte, Cape Coral, rural interior, odds and ends.
16 36-12-44 / 40-11-41, 63.4% Obama
Close cousin of the draft 27th. Freed Saint Cloud Anglos, withdrew out of Polk, and drew it deeper into Orange, though. Hispanic plurality VAP (not CVAP, obviously. There are a lot of Puertoricans in Orlando, but a lot of Mexicans too.)
17 68-8-18 / 71-8-16, 50.9% McCain
Descendant of both current and draft 24th, but further south. Racially massaged boundaries, obviously. Not safe in a wave year - neither is the draft's, I think.
18 79-8-9 / 81-8-8, 55.0% McCain
Brevard district, loses Indian River and random bit of Orange, gains random bit of Volusia and very much non-random bit of Osceola in exchange.
19 72-11-14 / 76-10-12, 51.7% McCain
Rooney should like this slightly better than what the Senate drew for him.
20 62-13-21 / 67-11-19, 60.7% Obama
And West is dead.
21 66-13-16 / 70-11-15, 60.0% Obama
22 54-10-31 / 56-9-29, 60.4% Obama
I did not check where any incumbent lives, by the way. You're officially not supposed to. Kept this out of Dade entirely (it's basically Schultz's district.)
23 26-49-21 / 30-45-20, 80.2% Obama
Withdrew some of the furthest-removed precincts. Still consists of two quite separate areas plus the Everglades (and the Belle Glade and Clewiston Blacks!), of course. Draft is also below 50% VAP Black.
24 8-4-86 / 6-4-88, 57.4% McCain
Odd VAP numbers, I know. Anyone know what's up with that? Over a third of the White population is under 18. Cubans considering their children non-Hispanic because they don't speak Spanish? Superpacked Hialeah seat. Still includes a (smaller than the draft's) Dem Hispanic bit of Broward.
25 15-12-70 / 15-11-71, 53.4% Obama
Yeah, these Hispanic suburbs around Homestead and Kendale aren't all that Republican, you know. Didn't Obama carry some of the Cuban districts in 2008 too? Should still be capable of electing its Republican machine to Congress, though getting ever iffier. In an earlier version where this included the Keys, it was 57% Obama.
26 11-54-31 / 13-52-32, 87.4% Obama
The old 17th of course. Apart from the 1st, the district that changed the least - just a couple precincts. No reason to draw it any different.
27 33-4-60 / 34-4-60, 52.9% Obama
Now even more of a coastal rather than a Cuban district as it goes all the way north to the county line (where the draft has it lose Miami Beach.) Ros Lehtinen does well enough with these Whites, though. Would hold this easily enough absent a wave-and-strong-challenger combination.
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« Reply #165 on: December 04, 2011, 05:07:46 pm »
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I know very little about Florida demographics, but based on all this, do you think there's enough basis here for someone to make a case that this violates the Fair Redistricting Amendment?
Though there are roads in between, really Miami (okay, Key West) and Naples (okay, Marco) are dead ends as far as the population distribution goes. It does feel unnatural to bridge it. The 25th takes in a (smaller) part of Collier as is, and IIRC quite a few of those (sizable, but not majoritarian) Hispanics there are Cubans who've come across from the Dade Little Havannas, so there is some logic to it.
I am really no expert on American legal interpretation, and nobody really knows how a court will decide.

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Since most Hispanics down there are Cuban, and most Cubans vote Republican
Not so fast here. Huge numbers of non-Cuban Hispanics in Dade; South Americans mostly. Low turnout and citizenship rates, obviously. And even the Cubans don't vote monolithically. IIRC we've had proposals to create four Hispanic districts in Dade including one that was a Dem sink.
Quote
Also, is the difference between Collier and Collier + Lee stark enough that someone could reasonably argue there was intent to protect West?
The point is that not treating Dade as a dead end, you can fidget where all the (non-Black, as these are carved in stone) Southeast Florida districts begin and end. That's how they helped West, and they probably did it on purpose - least disruption, as it were. The two Dem White seats could also stay roughly where they were. Not that that's a valid criterion in going from a no-rules map to a rules-governed map.
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« Reply #166 on: December 05, 2011, 02:12:13 pm »
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Probably not surprising, but, at least for now, Grayson is running in the 27th.
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« Reply #167 on: December 05, 2011, 02:37:46 pm »
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Yes, West will run better than McCain's 44% in the CD, but having moved 4 full points in the Dem direction, this map pretty much throws him under the bus. Amazing really.  The Tea Party should revolt, and scare the map drawers sh*t-less. I quite like West.

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« Reply #168 on: December 06, 2011, 10:02:06 am »
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What are the growth rates of the Cubans vs non Cubans in Dade? This decade it's almost a sure thing that the Cubans will crack the non Cubans again, probably successfully, for 10 years; you can accomplish that fairly easily while still placing 1 (or even 2) districts entirely in Dade.

Eventually though they might quarantine off all the Democratic Hispanics at the south end and use to Cubans to crack the semi liberal whites.
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« Reply #169 on: December 06, 2011, 03:46:19 pm »
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2010 (2000)
Florida
4.224mio (2.683mio) Hispanics of which
1.213mio (833k) Cubans, 848k (482k) Puertoricans, 630k (364k) Mexicans, 433k (203k) Central Americans, 300k (139k) Colombians, 375k (163k) other South Americans, 172k (71k) Dominicans, 253k (429k) did not state, or Spanish
Decline in the dns/unclassifiable write-ins numbers is a US-wide pattern. Probably to do with questionnaire layout.

Broward
438k (272k) Hispanics of which 84k (51k) Cubans, 76k (55k) Puertoricans, 67k (30k) Colombians, 79k (34k) other South Americans etc

Dade
1.624mio (1.292mio) Hispanics of which
856k (651k) Cubans, 213k (128k) Central Americans, 115k (70k) Colombians, 159k (84k) other South Americans, 92k (80k) Puertoricans, 58k (36k) Dominicans, 52k (38k) Mexicans, 80k (203k) did not state
On these figures, the Cuban share of the Hispanic population of Dade actually increased.

Monroe (why is this place in a Minmaj district again? Oh right, geography.)
15k (13k) Hispanics of which 8300 (7100) Cubans

Collier
83k (49k) Hispanics of which 39k (28k) Mexicans (ah.), 17k (7k) Cubans etc

Hendry (why not?)
19k (14k) Hispanics of which 13k (10k) Mexicans, presumably toiling in the sugarcane just like the Haitians a town or two to the east. 2800 (1500) Cubans.

So... all certainties should be muddled up by the numbers. Now we need a good geographical breakdown of Dade, I suppose...
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« Reply #170 on: December 06, 2011, 04:20:31 pm »
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The House released several potential maps. No big surprises. Brown's district is the same, West is still in trouble. Many have a district combining Osceola with half of Polk, I'm not sure if that's a vote sink.

One difference is that unlike the Senate map, all House maps drop the ridiculous spur into Bradenton that was only road-contiguous in one direction at a time.
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« Reply #171 on: December 06, 2011, 04:25:21 pm »
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Now we need a good geographical breakdown of Dade, I suppose...

Cities/towns/CDPs over over 20k inhabitants.

Aventura 36k inhabitants, 13k Hispanics, 8k South Americans
Coral Gables 47k inhabitants, 25k Hispanics, 15k Cubans, 5k South Americans
Coral Terrace 24k inhabitants, 22k Hispanics, 17k Cubans
Country Club 47k inhabitants, 37k Hispanics, 16k Cubans, 10k South Americans
Cutler Bay 40k inhabitants, 22k Hispanics, 10k Cubans
Doral 46k inhabitants, 36k Hispanics, 21k South Americans (of which 9k Venezuelans, the largest community in the place apparently), 6k Cubans
Fountainebleau 60k inhabitants, 55k Hispanics, 28k Cubans, 11k South Americans, 9k Central Americans
Golden Glades 33k inhabitants, 6k Hispanics
Hialeah 225k inhabitants, 213k Hispanics, 165k Cubans, 17k Central Americans (10k Nicaraguans alone), 14k South Americans
Hialeah Gardens 22k inhabitants, 21k Hispanics, 14k Cubans
Homestead 61k inhabitants, 38k Hispanics, 10k Cubans, 9k Mexicans, 8k Central Americans, 5k Puertoricans
Kendale Lakes 56k inhabitants, 49k Hispanics, 29k Cubans, 9k South Americans
Kendall 75k inhabitants, 48k Hispanics, 25k Cubans, 12k South Americans
Kendall West 36k inhabitants, 32k Hispanics, 16k Cubans, 8k South Americans
Leisure City 23k inhabitants, 17k Hispanics, 6k Cubans, 5k Mexicans
Miami 399k inhabitants, 279k Hispanics, 137k Cubans, 63k Central Americans (29k Nicaraguans, 23k Hondurans), 35k South Americans
Miami Beach 88k inhabitants, 47k Hispanics, 18k Cubans, 15k South Americans (they're intending to drop this place into a non-VRA seat while retaining Monroe and expanding in Collier? Hmmm... Retrogression! Retrogression! Smiley )
Miami Gardens 107k inhabitants, 24k Hispanics, 10k Cubans. Primarily a Black town, of course.
Miami Lakes 29k inhabitants, 24k Hispanics, 17k Cubans
North Miami 59k inhabitants, 16k Hispanics, 4k Cubans still the largest group
North Miami Beach 42k inhabitants, 15k Hispanics, 5k South Americans, 3k Cubans lead when S.Am. broken up
Palmetto Bay 23k inhabitants, 9k Hispanics, 4k Cubans
Princeton 22k inhabitants, 13k Hispanics, 5k Cubans
Richmond West 32k inhabitants, 25k Hispanics, 13k Cubans
Sunny Isles Beach 21k inhabitants, 9k Hispanics, 5k South Americans. More Colombians than Cubans.
Tamiami 55k inhabitants, 51k Hispanics, 36k Cubans, 6k South Americans, 3500 Nicaraguans
The Crossings 23k inhabitants, 16k Hispanics, 7k Cubans, 5k South Americans
The Hammocks 51k inhabitants, 39k Hispanics, 14k South Americans, 14k Cubans
University Park 27k inhabitants, 23k Hispanics, 17k Cubans
Westchester 30k inhabitants, 27k Hispanics, 21k Cubans
West Little River 35k inhabitants, 18k Hispanics, 8k Cubans, 5k Central Americans

I intend to sort these geographically and add McCain-Obama figures. But not today.
 
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« Reply #172 on: December 06, 2011, 04:26:09 pm »
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The House released several potential maps. No big surprises. Brown's district is the same, West is still in trouble. Many have a district combining Osceola with half of Polk, I'm not sure if that's a vote sink.

One difference is that unlike the Senate map, all House maps drop the ridiculous spur into Bradenton that was only road-contiguous in one direction at a time.
Link?

That spur makes the difference between a safe Buchanan and a waveweary Buchanan.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #173 on: December 06, 2011, 04:27:22 pm »
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What are the growth rates of the Cubans vs non Cubans in Dade? This decade it's almost a sure thing that the Cubans will crack the non Cubans again, probably successfully, for 10 years; you can accomplish that fairly easily while still placing 1 (or even 2) districts entirely in Dade.

Eventually though they might quarantine off all the Democratic Hispanics at the south end and use to Cubans to crack the semi liberal whites.

I don't think this is really geographically possible. Nearly all of the non-Hispanic whites in Miami County live either (a) on the barrier islands or the nearby mainland, or (b) south of the city.

The northern whites are inaccessible except through the black areas (obviously not possible) or through downtown Miami. They would have to all be in one district because it's just too narrow to partition them otherwise. Drawing a district like that, I end up with 54% Obama--might be possible to lower that to 51-2% if you're more precise, but it can't go much lower, which is far from safe.

The southern whites are surrounded by and interspersed with non-Cubans, so they would go naturally in a south-Dade-and-Monroe Hispanic Democratic district (which is around 57-58% Obama and around 60% Hispanic VAP).
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« Reply #174 on: December 06, 2011, 04:30:19 pm »
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The northern whites are inaccessible except through the black areas (obviously not possible) or through downtown Miami. They would have to all be in one district because it's just too narrow to partition them otherwise. Drawing a district like that, I end up with 54% Obama--might be possible to lower that to 51-2% if you're more precise, but it can't go much lower, which is far from safe.
That's effectively what I drew for Ros Lehtinen just above. Of course, I also gave her Monroe County.
With the result that the Southern district picked up some of the Cuban Republican territory. That was okay with me because I needed one of the three Hispanic districts to extend into Broward, and the northwesterly one at least bordered Hispanic territory (of a different character... but it seems the Cubans are interspersed with non-Cubans anywhere north of Hialeah anyways.)
« Last Edit: December 06, 2011, 04:33:30 pm by Minion of Midas »Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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