US House Redistricting: Florida

[Devils30]

Great news for the Dems, West is running in Rooney's district (old 16, new 18). District went 51-48 Obama in 2008 and looks to be R+1ish.  Considering his history of inflammatory remarks, I'd give the Dems even money of winning it right now. Add to the fact they should win a now open FL-22, it could be a 2 seat Dem gain in south FL rather than just West.

[Vasall des Midas]

We never discussed the eventual compromise map.

I can't find any of the cool demographic reports for it that we had for earlier drafts. Even the googlemaps link they offer is broken. All I got is a lousy pdf.
Senate caved on Buchanan, House on Young. (Which means they drew something similar to what the NAACP wanted in the Tampa Bay, though with somewhat more of St Pete in the Tampa district.)
They also appear to have decided at the last minute to restore the north-south numbering scheme broken in 2000. I approve of that.

[Vasall des Midas]

The new Dem seat in Orlando (now the 9th) gave Obama 60%... but actually went for Bush by a whisper in 2004. Swings around Orlando were that huge (and not only 2004 to 8 - the area swung pretty heavily Dem over the 90s, then back a bit in '04, then back the other way to new extremes in '08.) Not safe for Grayson against an electable Republican.

[Vasall des Midas]

Wait. Have they or haven't they reached a compromise? I am currently confused.

It looks as if that map linked to has so far only been passed by the House redistricting committee (and is set to be passed by the House tomorrow), but is nonetheless assumed to be the final map by commentators. Whether rightly or wrongly I've no idea.

[Vasall des Midas]

I've also found all the statistics I could want except for voting results (which I suppose they aren't supposed to officially take into account and are not releasing for that reason).

Some more on the merry-go-round: Mica and Adams both live in the leanish-R Seminole district; Mica will run in the safer Volusia district instead. Nugent and... I forget who... both live in the safe 11th, one of them will have to run in the even safer 3rd instead. I wonder what Bilirakis thinks of that 15th the House drew him - safe R and all, but quite a new district when earlier plans incl. the Senate map had his old district more or less in one piece.

[Vasall des Midas]

Corrine Brown's seat is just ever so barely (50.1%) majority Black alone or in combination VAP. Doesn't say in the report, but can be surmised to be about ~48.0 or ~48.2 non-Hispanic Black Alone (ie DRA figure). Of course, that's Blacker than before, and seems to be majority non-Hispanic Black Alone in total population.
Shouldn't legally matter as it's not compact anyways... and as I see no striking down as no more compact version can be drawn. But still a nice touch.

Oh lol, the Senate version actually stops at 49.96%. Somehow I think both versions do it on purpose, based on what they think is legally safer.

[timothyinMD]

Great news for the Dems, West is running in Rooney's district (old 16, new 18). District went 51-48 Obama in 2008 and looks to be R+1ish.  Considering his history of inflammatory remarks, I'd give the Dems even money of winning it right now. Add to the fact they should win a now open FL-22, it could be a 2 seat Dem gain in south FL rather than just West.

Its incredible how much you and others just hate that there is an outspoken, conservative black man in the House.  Black Democrats say inflammatory stuff all the time, yet you don't try to get them out of office.  It's pathetic

[Gravis Marketing]

Florida always does those crappy PDFs. It's the same design they used 10 years ago!

[Vasall des Midas]

Florida always does those crappy PDFs. It's the same design they used 10 years ago!

There are some decent insets for the Senate plan... but although most districts* are quite similar, only the 1st, 2nd, and 8th (15th in the Senate scheme) are identical.

*everything but the east-central part (sans the Pinellas-Tampa pair) of the state, and Monroe County's placement between the two southern Cuban seats.

[Devils30]

Great news for the Dems, West is running in Rooney's district (old 16, new 18). District went 51-48 Obama in 2008 and looks to be R+1ish.  Considering his history of inflammatory remarks, I'd give the Dems even money of winning it right now. Add to the fact they should win a now open FL-22, it could be a 2 seat Dem gain in south FL rather than just West.

Its incredible how much you and others just hate that there is an outspoken, conservative black man in the House.  Black Democrats say inflammatory stuff all the time, yet you don't try to get them out of office.  It's pathetic

Give me a break. The guy hires a woman as his chief of staff (who later declined it) who said at a rally "If ballots don't work, bullets will." He compares the Dems to the nazis using language such as Goebbels propaganda machine and keeps mentioning how 2012 will be a bloodbath. Whether the guy is mentally competent is a bigger question than whether he wins election in his new district.

[Bacon King]

Wait. Have they or haven't they reached a compromise? I am currently confused.

It looks as if that map linked to has so far only been passed by the House redistricting committee (and is set to be passed by the House tomorrow), but is nonetheless assumed to be the final map by commentators. Whether rightly or wrongly I've no idea.

I don't think there's a compromise yet. Two days ago, the House put this Senate-passed map on their special order calendar at the same time they moved up this House map on their general calendar for the second reading. We should know by tomorrow what they plan to do with the Senate map, I suppose.

[nclib]

Does anyone have what district numbers the old districts match up to?

[krazen1211]

Here's the Obama Mccain figures for both maps.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At9k6QrlThx6dEZ1Q1FZWFlXWjA4d1BlSmNHdklSdkE&hl=en_US#gid=0

The House map seems to be the one that people are going on. Senate map adheres to the old numbering while the House map renumbers.

On the House map:

FL-6 - Mica, based around Daytona Beach
FL-7 - Adams, based in Seminole County
FL-13 - Young, based in Pinellas
FL-16 - Rooney, new district based around Charlotte Harbor
FL-18 - West, Rooney's old district in St. Lucie
FL-22 - ?, the Republican areas of Palm Beach/Broward
FL-25, 36, 27 - Cuban districts
FL-9 - ?, new district based on Kissimmee/Orlando

[krazen1211]

I've also found all the statistics I could want except for voting results (which I suppose they aren't supposed to officially take into account and are not releasing for that reason).

Some more on the merry-go-round: Mica and Adams both live in the leanish-R Seminole district; Mica will run in the safer Volusia district instead. Nugent and... I forget who... both live in the safe 11th, one of them will have to run in the even safer 3rd instead. I wonder what Bilirakis thinks of that 15th the House drew him - safe R and all, but quite a new district when earlier plans incl. the Senate map had his old district more or less in one piece.

Everyone knows where the Republicans are anyway. Nugent and Stearns are combined.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The new Dem seat in Orlando (now the 9th) gave Obama 60%... but actually went for Bush by a whisper in 2004. Swings around Orlando were that huge (and not only 2004 to 8 - the area swung pretty heavily Dem over the 90s, then back a bit in '04, then back the other way to new extremes in '08.) Not safe for Grayson against an electable Republican.

Of course it's a heavily Hispanic seat so it's probably not likely any current Republican could replicate Bush's numbers...

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, it looks like the district for Bilirakis is actually the 12th, not the 15th as I claimed above.

If everybody were to run in the district that got the largest part of his old district - even if it's only 40odd% and/or they don't live there - that leaves every Dem in a safe seat, every Rep bar West in at least an even seat, the D 9th and the R 17th open. With Wayne Rooney and Fred West's announcements to both run in the district that got the second largest share of their old one instead even though they live nowhere near them, that leaves the D 9th and 22nd open instead. Easy D+2. Provided everybody holds and Dems actually do take the new seats, of course, but there's a major natural (yeah right) break at this point - no district more than 51 but less than 57 percent Obama. (How did the House map make Rivera safer than the Senate map? That's a trick I missed looking at it. Also, looks like the Senate map still endangered Buchanan, so kept the Bradenton carveout for nothing? Hilarious.)

[Bacon King]

In the legally mandated Florida Supreme Court review of the finalized map, what sort of precedent/authority do they have? If they don't approve the legislature's map, can they draw it themselves, or send it back to the legislature with a list of needed changes, or what?

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't see how that Bradenton could be considered legal. Good lawsuit basis there.

[krazen1211]

In the legally mandated Florida Supreme Court review of the finalized map, what sort of precedent/authority do they have? If they don't approve the legislature's map, can they draw it themselves, or send it back to the legislature with a list of needed changes, or what?

General rule of thumb is that the legislature has the first right to fix legislation.

[jimrtex]

In the legally mandated Florida Supreme Court review of the finalized map, what sort of precedent/authority do they have? If they don't approve the legislature's map, can they draw it themselves, or send it back to the legislature with a list of needed changes, or what?

Florida Constitution, See Article III, Section 16

This part of the apportionment procedure was already in place.  You will notice that it specifies that reapportionment begin in the XXX2 year.   After the legislature passes a plan, the AG has to present if to the Supreme Court (in effect it works somewhat like Section 5 preclearance), if the court finds that it doesn't comply with the constitution, it gets kicked back down to the legislature for a 2nd try in which "the legislature shall adopt a joint resolution of apportionment conforming to the judgment of the supreme court".  If the supreme court doesn't like the 2nd plan they can draw their own.

The Florida Supreme Court is still part of Florida, so this final plan will still have to be precleared by the USDOJ (some counties in Florida are subject to Section 5 preclearance)

This section was only added in 1998, and while it provides some incentives to force reapportionment, it doesn't have any much in the way of standards.  It would be subject to equal protection and VRA standards, but it would require a pretty aggressive court to complain about too much deviation from the population equality, and then the legislature could just do a more extreme gerrymander.

The proponents of the redistricting amendments wanted to create an independent redistricting commission, but found that would violate a ban on constitutional amendments concerning two different subject matters (ie both reapportionment standards; and reapportionment procedures).

So what they ended up with is a set of standards that would like those that would be placed on a redistricting commission.   If it were a redistricting commission, you would try to salt the commission with persons who are susceptible to your version of fairness, and then get the staff lawyers to emphasize certain points, and keep sending in witnesses to testify about their "community" interests.

Since in Florida the legislature will be doing the reapportionment, they added "intent" standards.  When the plan goes before the Supreme Court, the lawyers for the challengers will argue for a "wisp of a possibility of an inference of intent" standard, while the state will argue for a "beyond a reasonable doubt standard".  The Supreme Court will get to determine what the People meant when they passed the measure.   The People probably thought they were getting rid of districts like FL-3 and the ridiculous districts on the Gold Coast.  But the Democrats will argue that is obviously not the case, since the People also included the race-based criteria.

Last summer, the legislature was holding hearings on redistricting throughout Florida.  Remember it was unconstitutional for the legislature to even consider actual legislation.   "Citizens" would show up and demand that the legislature "show us your plans".  Unless the lady from the ACLU was desperate and hoping one of the legislators would bring her up to his hotel room to "see my redistricting plans", they were basically building their case for proving what the "intent" of the legislature was.

[Vasall des Midas]

I don't see how that Bradenton could be considered legal. Good lawsuit basis there.

Bradenton isn't in the House map.... you mean St Petersburg?

The issue to use is clearly the Cuban districts; retrogressing out of Miami Beach to take more White Republicans in Collier is a risky move by Republicans. You'd also hope to clean up west central Florida... though I doubt a map that makes everybody happy (and I don't mean politicians looking for a safe job) is actually feasible there.

[krazen1211]

Incidentally that district is the 54% McCain one...ie Ironclad, compared to the other 2. VAPs on the 3 cuban districts are 71, 69, 75, respectively.

[Vasall des Midas]

Incidentally that district is the 54% McCain one...ie Ironclad, compared to the other 2.

Of course, of course - it's the Diaz Balart district (though Mario continues to live in his former district FL25/6 and, hilariously, Rivera's home was drawn into this district. No, they will not switch.) But you need to regard the three district area, really. Move it further east, you'll always continue to have one ironclad district for a Diaz Balart but the GOP's chances at the other two weaken (not necessarily to the point where they'll have to actually concede one.)

[krazen1211]

Incidentally that district is the 54% McCain one...ie Ironclad, compared to the other 2.

Of course, of course - it's the Diaz Balart district (though Mario continues to live in his former district FL25/6 and, hilariously, Rivera's home was drawn into this district. No, they will not switch.) But you need to regard the three district area, really. Move it further east, you'll always continue to have one ironclad district for a Diaz Balart but the GOP's chances at the other two weaken (not necessarily to the point where they'll have to actually concede one.)

I'd have to look at the population totals. The current cuban districts already extend into Collier County....but keep in mind those area around the everglades are basically empty. I'm not sure how much more population from Collier was added to the tri district area, but I don't believe its much.

If its not much, the option probably remains to skim random precincts from the black district or wasserman schultz and leave the other 2 cubans alone.

[Vasall des Midas]

The three House Plan Cuban districts taken together take in virtually the entire old 25th (a sliver in Collier actually goes to the new Lee/Collier district), 91% of the old 21st (remainder split between Deutch and Wilson), just 80% of the old 18th (ditto, Deutch getting more though), as well as 8% of the old 14th, 3% of the old 16th (I think this must also be on the Collier/Hendry side of things?) and minuscule parts of the old 17th and 23rd. Like, 20 people in the Everglades in the latter case.
23rd and 24th move up to over 37% and 32% Hispanic VAP respectively as a result of shifting southwards.
I'm just looking at my handwritten notes here; the report I took these from would have the racial breakdown of the territories transferred.
Obviously, the usual process if this were a commission would be to skim some non-Hispanic areas off the edges of the Cuban seats (as they're oversized, summed), and the Collier part that both doesn't belong COIwise and isn't even majority Hispanic ought to be your first place to look. The 17th (now 24th) needing some additional population complicates it a little, and I don't think a court'll object to dropping a few Dem Hispanics into it. But only a little.

Of course, not doing that, and taking that legal risk (and a risk is all it is, I'm not saying it's certain the map'll end up court-drawn or anything), not only helped Ros Rivera and Ros Lehtinen a little, by pushing all the Gold Coast districts south it also helped the Rooney-West switcheroo. Rooney has little incentive to switch districts if you don't do that.