US House Redistricting: Florida

[minionofmidas]

Is it technically possible to draw a Non-Cuban Hispanic Opportunity district? Not that Republicans will want to, or can legally be compelled to even if possible, of course; though it would make a lot of sense.

[minionofmidas]

Dade has lots of non-Cuban Hispanics... lots of South Americans especially... and is where I meant. (And yeah, the Hispanics at Orlando are mostly Portorican IIRC. Lots of Mexicans too.)

[minionofmidas]

Not a single gratuitious county split and no attention whatsoever to the VRA or to racial composition of anything until I was finished. (So, yeah, fantasy map - though it does not really matter outside South Florida.) No attention to city boundaries, preferring roads, rivers, and edges of densely built territory instead.



Central Florida enhance:



No South Florida enhance because it's a fantasy map anyways. Though I preserved the three Cuban seats without actually trying... no Black seats though. Well, one nearly even threeway that Frederica Wilson probably could win.

Sine the western one of the Orlando seats is just 44% White, you could probably claim that it's a successor seat to Corrine Brown's. Though only to a sympathetic DOJ and judge.

I'm very proud of Donut Jacksonville, and of splitting Lee County along the Caloosahatchee.

[minionofmidas]

This is as nonwhite as you'll get a purely Duval district, I think. 52% White. Corrine Brown wouldn't ever be safe, I guess, but she ought to ba able win both a Democratic Primary and a General Election under normal circumstances.



These are Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach with absolutely no gratuitous county splits ... and two Black-opportunity districts.





Green (also includes all of Monroe County) 57% Hispanic, 28% Anglo, 12% Black
Purple 70% Hispanic, 23% White, 6% Black
Red a whopping 82% Hispanic, 9% White, 8% Black
Yellow 48% Black, 25% Hispanic, 22% White, and a nice compact district it is
Teal 57% White, 26% Hispanic, 13% Black
Grey 51% White, 22% Hispanic, 22% Black
Monstrous Lavender 39% White, 38% Black, 19% Hispanic
Monstrous Turquoise 75% White, 16% Hispanic, 6% Black

the white bit of Palm Beach County belongs with a district to the north, as above.
You see the issue. There are additional Black areas in Broward County that I can't get to without an additional county split that I am not prepared to do, and there are next to no Blacks left in Palm Beach. Someone with A LOT of patience could perhaps nudge it just over the edge into Black plurality. One might also try to draw a Black district entirely inside Broward County instead.

[minionofmidas]

In establishing Congressional district boundaries:

(1) No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent

Does Michigan's law include any such language?

[minionofmidas]

If "Obama district" by 18 votes is good enough for you, you can get one out of Ocala and Marion Counties with the less disfavorable bits of Putnam and Citrus attached, and no unnecessary county splits to the north. (I suppose the 18 votes thing can be improved on, but not by much.) Though I dare say the remnant third with rural counties between Tallahassee, Gainesville and Jacksonville plus the northern and western edges of Jacksonville does look unnatural - though something somewhat like it may actually happen anyways.
But what bugs me is the district with Tallahassee and Panama City and the rural blacks nearby. Drawn "naturally" with no regards to gerrymandering, it's 52.odd McCain... but the most I could move that without altering the design radically (and obvious gerrymandering) is to 51.8.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, here's my inoffensive-at-first-glance democratic dummymander (for it is a dummymander, not a gerrymander) of North and Central Florida.
No additional county splits. The minemadge seat had to go, of course.





CD1 (West Florida, not shown) 67.7% McCain
CD2 (West Florida, Tallahassee) 52.0% McCain. Can't flip that one without major works.
CD3 (purple remnants district around the Suwannee River) 67.1% McCain
CD4 (Jacksonville) 53.4% Obama
CD5 (Gainesville, Ocala) 50.7% Obama
CD6 (east coast) 58.7% McCain
CD7 (South Pinellas) 55.5% Obama
CD8 (Polk County) 53.0% McCain. Another seat that would, sadly, take major reworking to flip. I suppose you could maybe gain another Obama seat by carving the county up.
CD9 (turquoise thing north of that) 56.0% McCain
CD10 (West Pasco, North Pinellas, NW Hillsborough) 51.3% Obama
CD11 (West Orlando) 60.0% Obama
CD12 (Osceola, East Orlando) 58.6% Obama. Technically "coalition" districts both.
CD13 (Seminole, SW Volusia) 50.4% Obama. And yeah, the Orange precincts to drop in were chosen wisely.
CD14 (Central Hillsborough) 54.5% Obama. And yeah, you guessed right why it's so thin in the middle. Seats to the north and south need those areas.
CD15 (Bradenton, South Hillsborough, parts of Sarasota) 50.3% Obama.

9-6 Obama so far. Parts south just aren't so interesting. Not going to do them.

[minionofmidas]

Eh... ignore that one purple precinct in Alachua.

[minionofmidas]

I see no one has submitted a map preserving the current 3rd so far. It can be done. It shouldn't be done and it probably won't be done, but it can be done.



68% Obama, Black plurality VAP (40.5-39..
The yellow Orange County district is Obama by 10. The ones northeast and southeast of it are marginal McCain districts that might become an issue if trends in the area continue.

[minionofmidas]

Ugly as it is, the Jacksonville-to-Tallahassee seat probably gives the parties, ahm, security. I suppose it's what the smart money is on. Though the corridor to Gainesville will probably not be justifiable on VRA grounds and thus be out the window under the legislation adopted. Anyways, as long as it doesn't get its own seat along with Ocala, Gainesville can easily be swallowed up into a Republican seat.

[minionofmidas]

First citizen submission.

in pdf.

A further note on the Corrine Brown district: It appears to be only just about possible to draw a Black plurality district Jacksonville to Gadsden, with a spike into Gainesville. (It appears to be impossible without.) The best I got so far was 45.3-44.8 total population, which of course translates as a more than 5 point White plurality in the VAP.
It is possible to draw it into Orlando. It's not really what either party will want... but they may not have much choice. Unless they decide that there's no community of interest between Jacksonville and Orlando Blacks, and risk a court challenge (which, depending on the rest of the map, may or may not have Democratic political support) to that. It probably makes sense, then, to assume that it will continue in existence.

[minionofmidas]

And how about a Tallahassee to Gainesville district?

The Democrats would draw a district like that if they were controlling the gerrymandering. Don't see it happening any other way.

Maybe if Allen Boyd had somehow barely survived 2010 and a bipartisan incumbent protection plan a la California2000 was happening.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/local/article448561.ece

I think he was born in 85. Curious how he didn't hand the seat down in 2010, perhaps that wasn't his intention after all.

I guess I missed the Gandy Bridge by a precinct. Easily fixable.

Four.
Seriously. It's dead. What they'll do is tamper with the lines a bit so that the wholly Pinellas district is only 54.5% Obama and not 56.0% as it could be, and hope Bill Young can hold it for a while yet.

[minionofmidas]

Diaz-Balart and Brown have lost their ridiculous lawsuit claiming that a law that explicitly requires district boundaries to respect the VRA violates the VRA.

This quote right here is particularly disgusting:

"The people of Florida never had the power to do anything with respect to congressional redistricting"

Anyone who honestly believes that the people of the US don't have the right to establish completely reasonable rules regarding the redistricting process doesn't really believe in representative democracy.

See Justice Stevens dissent in California Democratic Party v Jones in Part II.

In a representative democracy, why is there a need for the People to legislate directly, bypassing their representatives?  That doesn't seem to be consistent with a belief in representative democracy.

Highlighted for contrast. They are very different statements. (Also, it's a dissent. Oh, and the answer is obvious: Because of gerrymandering. )

[minionofmidas]

CD10 and CD11 are brought to you by "Screw you Fair Districts Amendment!"

Not to mention Orange County...

[minionofmidas]

Certainly quite a bit better than before. Although that isn't saying much.

Basically, obeying the law except where it would hurt them.

With a hilarious consequence in the mainland part of Monroe.

[minionofmidas]

John Mica for instance is placed out of his district.

His tendril to Winter Park was lost and Daniel Webster gained a tendril to Winter Park.

I am confused as to what the purpose of that is other than to make the new district as Hispanic as possible. I believe its Hispanic VAP is in the 40s.

And the purpose of that is... to make that double split of Orange and Polk easier to defend in court?

Looking at South Florida... the 23rd lost its southern extension, wonder how much to the Dem side it moved (nothern part of the gerry is of course easily defended because it borders a Black district, so no surprises it doesn't change much). Debbie Schultz gets a saner district.
21st is weird, but partly covered by precedent (a slightly larger part of Collier is currently in the 25th, and Hendry is split roughly across that same line though with a different district in the western half.)

[minionofmidas]

Lawsuit time! The most likely result probably being the best too, that abomination being tossed a court-drawn map put in its place.

Though at least even under that Allen West is probably still toast and the Democrats could take FL-27 (though it'd have to be with someone other than Alan Grayson...which alone is enough reason to fight to get it tossed.)

27 is a safe Democratic seat. It might still not end up as drawn - that 8th tendril is difficult to defend.
The only other part I would think problematic is 10/11.
There's no way the 3rd will be tossed if the legislature won't do it, I'm afraid.
Somewhere seen it claimed that West's new district is 55% Obama - not enough to doom him, but not favored against a strong challenger. The 16th is apparently also going to be highly swingy.

[minionofmidas]

There's no way the 3rd will be tossed if the legislature won't do it, I'm afraid.

Can you elaborate as to why not? I thought it wasn't VRA protected, and without that, it surely violates Fair Districts.

Just because the state once created it for reasons (officially) other than VRA doesn't mean it'll make that claim this time. Besides, what's been pointed out about FDA.

Technically, of course, the issue is with FL 9 and 11 rather than 10 and 11. The 10th would have to be changed to rectify it though.
Unnecessary double county split with very very poor excuses beyond political gerrymandering. Certainly does reduce compactness.
And yeah, they jutted into Manatee as well. I don't need to verify that on a map with better color choices - I know a Manatee and Sarasota district needs to shed a tiny bit of territory, and they drew it well into Charlotte. Again, very easily avoidable, by switching around areas with the 12th, which btw is an exceedingly odd district - something does need to give around there, though.

I would like to share this document; take note especially of which options it does not pursue.

[minionofmidas]

One thing to consider re FL3 is of course that if the Orlando area had two urban focused districts, they could both be coalition districts. And the urban Jacksonville district that would then probably result would be barely over 50% Anglo.

The proposed 3rd district is 49.96% Black VAP, btw. (Including Black Hispanics, of which Orlando has a few. Most of them in the 27th, though, apparently.)
The 27th is plurality Anglo VAP.

[minionofmidas]

e.g.



1st 45% Anglo, 27% Black, 20% Hispanic (DRA figures o/c), 49-25-18 on VAP, 59.4% Obama
2nd 40, 10, 44 (44, 9, 41), 61.0% Obama
3rd 68, 9, 17 (71, 9, 16), 49.8% Obama, would be safe Republican.

[minionofmidas]

Technically, of course, the issue is with FL 9 and 11 rather than 10 and 11. The 10th would have to be changed to rectify it though.
Unnecessary double county split with very very poor excuses beyond political gerrymandering. Certainly does reduce compactness.
And yeah, they jutted into Manatee as well. I don't need to verify that on a map with better color choices - I know a Manatee and Sarasota district needs to shed a tiny bit of territory, and they drew it well into Charlotte. Again, very easily avoidable, by switching around areas with the 12th, which btw is an exceedingly odd district - something does need to give around there, though.

I would like to share this document; take note especially of which options it does not pursue.

Placing one or more districts entirely in a county and having parts of 2 districts extending into other counties does not always respect county boundaries in the best way possible.  States like Ohio and Texas have formal provisions for drawing lines like you suggest, and they don't always work so well.  It seems like a good idea, but it isn't necessarily so.

That's why they need an exception clause (or just be not formulated as absolute commands in the first place.) Political gerrymandering is not a valid exception.

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You're chopping fewer arbitrary pieces of Tampa if you don't draw the Tampa district into St Petersburg and Bradenton for no good reason.

And remember, the Florida Constitution says that racial gerrymandering is more important than compactness or recognizing political boundaries.
[/quote]True... but not at issue here. This is not a minority-opportunity district under any sane standard - considerably less so than either of the two Orlando districts I drew above (and the Jacksonville district that goes with them), say. This is a 50-25-25 White-Black-Hispanic district.

[minionofmidas]

And a purely Tampa district, with some minor attention to racial breakdowns, comes out 49% Anglo anyways. (More Hispanics and fewer Blacks though.)

[minionofmidas]

Wait... haha, oh wow. I've just realized something here.

Hispanics are an ethnic minority, not a racial minority.

The Florida law talks of "racial or language minority". While that is a different word (and community survey data on language use exist), the intent is clear I believe.

[minionofmidas]

Is 21 a Collier or a Dade district?

Dade.
442k Dade, 88% Hispanic, 56.8% McCain
157k Collier, 53% Anglo, 36% Hispanic, 57.8% McCain
76k Broward, 50% Hispanic, 23% Black, 18% Anglo, 35.3% McCain
19k Hendry, 54% Hispanic, 41% White, 59.9% McCain

[minionofmidas]

Drawing three Hispanic districts in Dade alone is foolproof easy, but three Republican Hispanic seats is not. Going to Collier instead of drawing a district of Collier + Lee south of the Caloosahatchee not just makes that easier, it also makes the map look better in a couple of places elsewhere, worse in a lot more others, and helps with keeping West's district winnable.